De'Von Achane Has Overall RB1 Upside in Round Two

De'Von Achane narrowly missed going from first in rushing efficiency to worst over the past two seasons. The graph below shows rushing yards over expected (RYOE) on the x-axis and Next Gen Stats’ version of success rate on the y-axis. You’ll find the 2023 version of Achane in the top-right corner, outpacing both Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley from last season. And then you’ll find the 2024 version of Achane in the bottom-left corner near the D'Andre Swift Disaster Zone. So, what the heck happened?

Offensive Line Injuries and Poor Play

The most obvious thing to point to is the catastrophe that was the Dolphins’ offensive line last year. From Justin Edwards’ fantastic offensive line series, the Dolphins were dead last in both adjusted line yards and stuff rate on late-down, short-yardage situations. They were 31st in EPA per attempt and 26th in RB yards before contact. It was brutal out there for the RBs. Things seemed to get particularly bad last season when starting right tackle Austin Jackson went out with a knee injury and missed half of the season.

Going into 2025, the Dolphins have now lost perhaps their best talent on the line, Terron Armstead, to retirement. But there is at least some hope for improvement to the interior of the line, which is crucial for the success of the RBs. The Dolphins selected guard Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft. But Edwards still has the Dolphins ranked 27th in his 2025 offensive line rankings, and I just watched them get repeatedly stuffed at the goal line in their first preseason game. The poor play may continue.

Tagovailoa’s Hyper-Fast Time to Throw

Partially as a trauma response to the offensive line play, Tua Tagovailoa had easily the fastest time to throw among QBs last season. The x-axis of the graph below shows how many seconds a QB’s typical pass came after the snap. And it also shows that QB’s average target depth on the y-axis. There’s Tagovailoa all on his own in the bottom-left corner. An insanely quick release time, along with a very shallow target depth.

But that’s fantastic news for a pass-catching RB like Achane. In my Most Predictable Running Back Stats article, I found that receiving work was still not fully captured by the market, with both routes and targets per game being crucial elements to predict future week fantasy points. Well, Achane ran the most routes per game in the league last year and was second in targets per game behind Alvin Kamara.

Relatedly, Achane had some absolutely nasty on/off splits with Tagovailoa. According to PFF, Achane averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game with Tagovailoa playing and only 8.7 without him. Now, part of that is the efficiency of the entire offense cratering without the starting QB. But a massive part was also a target share split of 25.4% with Tagovailoa and 10.4% without him.

The Achane bet is reliant on the health of a QB who has suffered through a lot of concussions. But that 22.5 fantasy points per game number was higher than Saquon Barkley’s pace last season. And now the Dolphins traded away Jonnu Smith, who was Achane’s primary competition for short targets.

Achane’s Goal Line Work

And we’ll need Achane to consolidate those short targets because it’s very possible he loses the goal line work in 2025. Tyreek Hill even went as far as to tell the media he thought Achane should lose that work in favor of Jaylen Wright or Ollie Gordon.

According to SIS, Achane was tied for 13th in the league with 14 carries within five yards of the endzone last year. But on those 14 carries he totaled…-1 yards. To his credit, he had 12 yards after contact. That’s where those offensive line woes come in again. Losing the three touchdowns he scored on those carries would stink, but these touches clearly weren’t the driving factor of his fantasy points.

2025 Outlook and Draft Strategy

Achane is currently going off the board as RB7 and 13th overall in 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP Tool. And he’s going right behind two other RBs in Ashton Jeanty and Derrick Henry. As a quick aside, it’s hilarious to me that Henry and Achane are going back-to-back in drafts. While they both technically play the same position, it’s difficult to think of two players with more dissimilar styles of play.

I hope this isn’t a cop-out answer, but whether you’d take Achane over those two players is format-dependent. If you play in a standard league, I think Henry is pretty clearly the pick. While Achane’s ceiling is most easily seen in a full-PPR league. But if you want my honest answer, I’d personally take Achane over both Jeanty and Henry in basically any league because he’s the style of RB I prefer.

Achane is one of a select few RBs with RB1-overall upside. To hit that ceiling, we’ll need a few things to happen simultaneously. We’ll need Tagovailoa to remain healthy. We’ll need the rushing efficiency we saw in 2023 to at least partially return. And we’ll need Achane to continue or expand on his league-leading RB receiving work. To me, that’s the path we’ll need for Achane to absolutely crush his already very-high ADP. It’s a bet I’m willing to make.

Bottom Line

• Achane narrowly missed going from first in rushing efficiency to worst over the past two seasons.
• A huge part of that was very poor offensive line play, as the Dolphins were dead last in both adjusted line yards and stuff rate on late-down, short-yardage situations.
• In response, Tagovailoa had the fastest time to throw and the shortest target depth among all qualifying QBs.
• That fed directly into Achane’s strengths as he ran the most routes per game in the league last year and was second in targets per game behind Alvin Kamara.
• That led to some nasty on/off splits with his starting QB, where he averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game with Tagovailoa playing and only 8.7 without him.
• The concern of Achane losing goal-line work is slightly overblown because he only totaled three touchdowns and -1 yards on his goal-line carries last season.
• The parlay we need to hit for an overall RB1 season is Tagovailoa remaining healthy, a partial/full return of Achane’s rushing efficiency from 2023, and the continuation/expansion of Achane’s league-leading receiving work.
• It’s a bet I’m willing to take at RB7 and 13th overall in 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP Tool, especially in full-PPR leagues.