Tyreek Hill Has a Wild Range of Outcomes in 2025

Anyone telling you that they know *exactly* how this season will go for Tyreek Hill is probably not someone worth listening to. The Athletic Football Show recently used the word bewilderment when describing the Dolphins’ 2025 outlook. I can’t think of a player with a wider range of outcomes. Those outcomes range from a complete collapse of the Dolphins’ offensive ecosystem with Hill shipped off to another team to Hill turning in a league-winning fantasy season. But for the reasons I’ll outline below, I think the distribution of those outcomes skews toward the bad end.

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Offensive Line Injuries and Poor Play

I talked about this in the De'Von Achane profile, but a good starting point for this discussion is the Dolphins’ offensive line. The Dolphins were dead last in both adjusted line yards and stuff rate on late-down, short-yardage situations last year. They were 31st in EPA per attempt and 26th in RB yards before contact. Per Next Gen Stats, they were stuffed on 26.3% of their runs, with no other team above 21.0%. It was brutal out there for the RBs. Things seemed to get particularly bad last season when starting right tackle Austin Jackson went out with a knee injury and missed half of the season.

Going into 2025, the Dolphins have now lost perhaps their best talent on the line, Terron Armstead, to retirement. But there is at least some hope for improvement to the interior of the line, which is crucial for the success of the RBs. The Dolphins selected guard Jonah Savaiinaea in the second round of the draft. But what we’ve seen thus far in 2025 hasn’t been promising. The Dolphins were bullied by second-string Bears’ defenders on the goal line in the preseason. And by all accounts, they were killed by the Lions in joint practices. The poor play may continue.

Tua Tagovailoa’s Hyper-Fast Time to Throw

Tua Tagovailoa had easily the fastest time to throw among QBs last season, partially as a response to that bad offensive line. The x-axis of the graph below shows how many seconds a QB’s typical pass came after the snap. And it also shows that QB’s average target depth on the y-axis. I’ve included Tagovailoa’s stats from both last year but also from 2023. He’s all the way to the left in both years with an insanely fast release time.

But the notable change in 2024 was a big drop in average target depth. Because, along with the poor offensive line play, the Dolphins faced cloud coverage on 35.5% of their dropbacks last season. They led that stat by a mile with no other team facing cloud coverage on more than 30.0% of their dropbacks. Because of the offensive line woes and defensive coverage, the Dolphins changed from an explosive pass offense to one focused on success rate through short passes to De’Von Achane and Jonnu Smith. That obviously was not good news for Hill.

Speaking of Tagovailoa, the Dolphins’ starting QB only played 11 games last season. And the on/off splits in fantasy for Hill were nasty, like the rest of the skill players. Hill averaged over 12 half-PPR fantasy points per game when Tagovailoa played, but only 6.5 without him. He scored zero touchdowns and only corralled about four receptions per game in the six outings Tagovailoa missed.

Hill Injuries and Declining Play

In fairness to Hill, he popped up on the injury report a lot last season. He had a foot injury in October and a wrist injury that lasted from November to January. And because of the timing of Tagovailoa’s injuries, there was only one game last season when both Tagovailoa and Hill were fully healthy.

But we also have a 31-year-old WR with big declines in basically every statistic compared to 2023. His avoided tackles were cut in half, his PFF pass route grade dropped 16 points, and both his yards after catch per reception and yards per route run dropped by about two yards. Reception Perception noted that his drop in efficiency was at least partially because he didn’t play as well in isolation as he had in the past. He had a 67.3% success rate versus man coverage, which is ok but not near Hill’s recent seasons. I don’t love betting on an aging WR showing clear signs of decline.

Bottom Line

• Tyreek Hill and the entire Dolphins’ offense took a major step back in 2024.
• Part of that was due to offensive line play, where the Dolphins RBs were stuffed on 26.3% of their runs or about five percentage points more than any other team.
• Part of that was a big drop in Tagovailoa’s average target depth as a response to both the poor offensive line and the league-high defensive cloud coverage he faced.
• Part of that was injuries to both Hill and Tagovailoa, with significant on/off fantasy-point splits for Hill when his starting QB was out.
• And finally, part of that was a decline in Hill’s own play, with big drops in his PFF grade, success rate versus man coverage, tackle avoidance, and virtually any other statistic you can look at.
• Hill is currently going off the board as WR13 and 29th overall according to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP Tool.
• In order for Hill to return to his elite 2023 form, we’d need improved offensive line play, an increase in Tagovailoa’s target depth, health for both Tagovailoa and Hill himself, and the belief that Hill has not yet hit the age cliff.
• I understand if you want to take Hill, because upside is the only thing that matters in redraft leagues, and Hill clearly has that.
• But it’s not a bet I find myself making. I prefer almost every player going around Hill more, including the elite QBs like Jayden Daniels, RBs like Omarion Hampton, other WRs like Tee Higgins, and the elite TEs like Trey McBride.