Can Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s Efficiency Increase Again with More Outside Routes on a Run-Heavy Team?

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) rebounded in 2024 after much hand-wringing following his rookie year. His WR22 finish on a per-game basis was rock solid. And that’s how I’d describe a lot of his underlying stats that we’ll dig into. But that WR22 finish does hide some extreme splits following DK Metcalf’s injury, a player who has now been shipped to Pittsburgh to deal with both Arthur Smith and Aaron Rodgers. I wouldn’t wish that fate on my worst enemy. I think JSN has the talent to really ascend in year three of his pro career. But my best instinct is he profiles as both a small-miss yet small-hit player, with both his after-catch ability and new offensive environment creating tail winds to his fantasy point potential. Let’s start with JSN, the player, before digging into his new competition and play-caller in 2025.

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The Player

The table below highlights some key stats in JSN’s profile. The best elements of his 2024 season were his per-game volume statistics. He was 17th among WRs in targets per game and 12th in receptions per game, with that difference explained by his relatively low average target depth. And those numbers really started taking off around mid-season with the game against the Bills. It’s hardly coincidental that the Bills game was the first one Metcalf missed due to injury. That Bills game started an eight-game stretch with JSN earning 69 or more receiving yards in every game and totaling five touchdowns during that span.

One of my favorite WR stats is ESPN Analytics’ open score. And JSN’s open score improved from a slightly below-average mark in his rookie year to an above-average mark last season. Reception Perception had even stronger praise, calling JSN’s route running and separation ability star-caliber. One knock in JSN’s profile is his after-the-catch ability. He had so-so marks in his yards after the catch (YAC) per reception and his avoided tackle rate. And that YAC performance really drives down his yards per route run efficiency, where he ended the season with a solid but not spectacular 1.81.

The Competition

One other big callout from JSN’s profile is that he operated almost exclusively out of the slot last year. The graph below shows the relationship between slot rate and WR fantasy points. Ideally, your favorite WR is closer to the middle of the graph, as both extremely low and extremely high slot rates correlate with lower future week fantasy points. Well, JSN was pretty extreme on the high side last year. But that is very likely to change in 2025.

Citing Reception Perception again, they called JSN a slot-heavy but not only player. Basically, that JSN has the ability to play on the outside as well. But it was still interesting that the primary competition the Seahawks brought in this offseason was power-slot Cooper Kupp. While JSN was third in slot rate among qualifying WRs, Kupp was 11th. If we assume that it’s JSN and Kupp in 2-WR sets, then JSN will be tasked with more outside reps in his third season.

We have literally four snaps worth of data from this preseason to work with. JSN was lined up out wide on two of those snaps and in the slot for the other two. It’s obviously not enough of a sample to do anything with, but it’s what we’ve got so far. One other note about JSN is the slight concern I have with his route rate this season. I do think he’ll be out there in 2-WR sets. But he’s also the worst run blocker of the projected starting three WRs between Kupp, rookie Tory Horton, and himself. And as we’ll dig into below, I do think this is going to be a run-heavy offense. Just a small callout there but nothing I’m overly worried about.

The Offensive Environment

As mentioned, I do think the Seahawks will want to establish the run this year, which is a notable change from 2024. The Seahawks started last season playing fast and pass-heavy. They averaged a pass rate over expected (PROE) of 8.5% through Week 5, which was higher than the first-place Bengals if sustained over the full season. But then there was a marked shift where the Seahawks ran the ball more than expected the rest of the way. And it feels like the firing of previous offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb was due to philosophical differences on pass rate with head coach Mike Macdonald.

Well, Klint Kubiak coming from the Shanahan tree fits that philosophy like a glove. It almost feels like he’s being brought in specifically to run the ball more. It’s why I really like Kenneth Walker this year, but if you’re worried about his injury history, then by all means, take Zach Charbonnet. But this is obviously bad news for JSN. As I mentioned, the best part of JSN’s profile was his targets and receptions per game. If we start having route concerns due to the Seahawks’ expected run rate, then we have a big problem on our hands.

Bottom Line

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba turned in a really promising sophomore season, finishing as WR22 in fantasy points per game with even better marks in targets and receptions.

• He showed strong route running and separation, though his after-the-catch ability was average relative to his shallow target depth.

• JSN operated almost exclusively out of the slot last year, but he’ll run a lot more routes out wide now with the signing of power-slot Cooper Kupp this offseason.

• And a big concern for JSN is the expected sharp drop in the Seahawks’ pass rate, as the Klint Kubiak hiring was transparently about wanting to run the ball more often.

• We’ll need another leap in JSN’s efficiency, especially after the catch, in order to combat an expected drop in routes.

• JSN is currently going off the board as WR13 and 29th overall according to 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP Tool.

• I think that WR rank is ok but hides what is a massive tier drop in my opinion after Tee Higgins is selected.

• I’m often thinking about one of the four elite QBs around JSN’s ADP and I also prefer Omarion Hampton who goes four spots later.

• But I do have an above-market exposure in best ball (12% for me versus 8% average) because if I need a WR in that range, I do prefer JSN to Marvin Harrison Jr. or to other players like Kyren Williams.