Ashton Jeanty off the Field, Michael Myers on the Field

It’s a shame Raiders coaches changed Ashton Jeanty’s stance behind the line of scrimmage this offseason. That tall, squared-up posture had become his signature. It’s almost eerie in the way it mirrors Michael Myers waiting for the snap, and when the ball is in his hands, defenders are the ones who should be running.

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Seven RBs have been drafted in the top 10 since 2015: Todd Gurley, Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, and now Ashton Jeanty. The only ones with a higher Next Gen Stats prospect grade? Barkley and Elliott. That doesn’t guarantee Jeanty a 16–20 PPG rookie season in half-PPR formats, but recent trends suggest he’s primed for a major fantasy impact right out of the gate.

The Hog Mollies up Front

Rushing success in fantasy is often tied to offensive line play. Ezekiel Elliott’s monster rookie year coincided with running behind one of the best lines of the modern era. On the other hand, Saquon Barkley had an average offensive line at best, led by Nate Solder, yet still delivered over 20 PPG in 2018.

Like Barkley, Jeanty enters the league with at least one cornerstone on the line in left tackle Kolton Miller. And like Barkley, he has a good infrastructure around him; a respected coach in Pete Caroll, a veteran quarterback in Geno Smith, and a young star pass catcher in Brock Bowers. Barkley had Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, and Odell Beckham. The parallels between Barkley’s setup in New York and Jeanty’s environment in Las Vegas are hard to ignore.

Carrying the Load

One of the knocks on Jeanty is his heavy college workload. He logged more than 750 carries at Boise State, which was more than any other RB drafted in the top 10 since 2015. But context matters. On a per-game basis, Jeanty averaged 18.8 carries, less than Leonard Fournette (19.3) and Saquon Barkley (21.6). The raw total looks daunting only because Jeanty played more games.

The landing spot can matter just as much as the offensive line a RB runs behind. Both Chip Kelly and Pete Carroll have shown a clear commitment to the run when calling plays. Carroll’s offenses in Seattle ranked in the 60th percentile for rush attempts, while Kelly’s units in Philadelphia and San Francisco ranked in the 82nd percentile and averaged no fewer than 27 carries per game. That level of consistency points to the Raiders building their offense around the ground game.

Combine that philosophy with Jeanty’s talent, draft capital, and the fact that Raheem Mostert is unlikely to command a significant workload at this stage of his career, and it’s hard to envision a scenario where Jeanty isn’t the bell cow from Day 1.

False Alarms

Patrick Mahomes, in his first training camp as a starter, was throwing interception after interception. Ja'Marr Chase’s preseason drops drew headlines. Both went on to become instant stars.

Ashton Jeanty’s underwhelming preseason debut, amassing 37 yards on 12 carries, shouldn’t scare you off. If anything, it’s the same script we’ve seen before. Mahomes and Chase took the league by storm despite early doubts, and Jeanty has the profile to follow that path. Ignore the noise, buy the dip, and reap the reward.

Selecting Ashton Jeanty Over Saquon Barkley

For nine straight seasons, at least one RB has topped 2,000 yards from scrimmage. Last year, that player was Saquon Barkley. No back has repeated in consecutive years during that stretch, which makes another 2K campaign from Barkley unlikely in 2025.

Given the role, the pedigree, and the historical comps, Ashton Jeanty may be the better bet. I’ve compared him to Barkley throughout this piece, and here’s the bold take: not only would I take Jeanty (RB5) over Barkley (RB2) in fantasy drafts, but I also believe Jeanty has a higher probability of joining the 2,000-yard club this season. Coincidentally, the same exclusive group Barkley entered as a rookie in 2018.

Bottom Line

• Ashton Jeanty joins an exclusive group of running backs drafted in the top 10, a tier that has historically produced immediate fantasy stars. With draft capital on his side and a prospect grade surpassed only by Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott, Jeanty’s floor looks to be a top 10 RB season, with legitimate upside to finish inside the top three.
• The situation in Las Vegas only strengthens that outlook. Chip Kelly’s offenses have consistently ranked towards the top of the league in rush attempts, averaging nearly 30 carries per game, and with no one positioned to siphon significant work. Jeanty projects as the clear bell cow from the start.
• Don’t let offseason noise cloud the picture. We’ve seen it before with Patrick Mahomes and Ja’Marr Chase. Early struggles quickly gave way to breakout seasons. Jeanty is cut from that same mold: a rare talent in an ideal situation. Ignore the chatter, trust the profile, and bet on Jeanty to reward fantasy managers who invest.