Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen

Sportsbooks are firing on Week 1 props earlier than ever, and with multiple shops opening props, we decided to test our luck early. For those of you new to my weekly prop bets, this will be my 5th season publicly posting my plays. I have been profitable each of the past four years. All of our plays come with write-ups and are either at multiple books or have significant limits that can withstand a release late in the week.

This year we are going to be playing widely available props a bit earlier in the week with the goal of each subscriber being able to bet at least $100 at a playable number.

In addition to my props, Ryan Noonan has absolutely crushed the defensive prop market the last few years. He’s 162-101 (61.6%) over the past two seasons (+41.84u). He also does his own defensive projections, which he releases on Saturdays.

Additionally, we hired:

• Monotone Football: Stu has crushed the prop market for years and will now be releasing all of his plays in 4for4's discord.
• Hunter Huss: Takes a data-driven approach to the sides and totals market, winning almost 50 units alone last season.
• Jake Lotenberg: Originate, pinpoint value, and release plays for Underdog/PrizePicks/Vivid/Betr, etc.
• Stephen Hoopes: Interception props based on his model that hit over 62% of the time with an average juice of -130 last year.

If that sounds interesting to you, get your first month of EVERYTHING at 4for4 for just $10 with code: TROPHY!

You can also get two months of the betting subscription or even a full year for $10 with a deposit at one of our partners' sites!

Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Mecole Hardman Under 9.5 receiving yards (10.5 at DraftKings -115)

Available at other shops as well for a similar price. Very on-brand play for me here but Hardman is likely going to be the WR6 and may not run a single route all game but WIlL play on special teams as the kick returner which counts as playing and doesn’t void the bet. Based on preseason usage he is behind:

1. Rashee Rice (going to play all the time)
2. Xavier Worthy (played with starters a ton)
3. Justin Watson (played w starters a bit)
4. Skyy Moore (sat out 3rd preseason game, Hardman did not. Got WR4 snaps w starters in 2nd preseason game)
5. Juju Smith Schuster (recently signed and expected to play Thursday per Reid’s comments).

I prefer a lower receiving line instead of R&R because they could use him on an end around or something fluky but I truly don’t think he runs very many routes if any. Even if he does, he is so bad it may not even matter. Good side convo with Monotone about Reid’s “comments” about Worthy “starting slow”. Reid said yeah we’ll see “how it goes when things are flying fast and furious.” The Chiefs beat reporter then interpreted that as Worthy starting slow/playing less. Which I don’t agree with. Even if i’m wrong and Worthy is eased in, I expect Skyy Moore to pick up the slack, not Hardman.

Tony Pollard over 9.5 receiving yards (10.5 -115 at DraftKings fine as well)

The Bears defense was great against the run last season but struggled to defend running backs in the passing game allowing 59 receiving yards per game to opposing running backs, by far the most in the league.

Pollard is a more than capable pass-catcher and figures to be the 1A to Tyjae Spears in this offense. In the preseason he and Spears were rotating drives which actually helps Pollard's pass-catching upside if he is playing on 3rd downs. He played 19 snaps in the preseason with the first team and had a receiving line of 4 receptions for 38 yards on just 19 snaps, running 7 routes.

I expect the Titans to emphasize the quick game and get the ball out quickly here like they did in preseason with the coaching change to Brian Callahan and Will Levis struggling with holding the ball too long last season.

Pollard should be one of those beneficiaries with Hopkins battling through a torn MCL and Spears the 1B here. Even if I am wrong about the projected roles, the matchup is so good he can easily hit the base number here.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit at FD

Risk 0.1 units on 30+ rec yards +440 at CZRS

Risk 0.1 units on 40_ rec yards +900 at CZRS

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Chig Okonkwo(TEN) U31.5 receiving yards (-120 at DraftKings)

H/T Ben Solak for pointing this out. Was playing behind Josh Whyle at times and has yet to be a target-earner in his career. Looks like Hopkins will play but even if he doesn't Okonkwo won't be a big part of their passing game based on preseason usage. I would play this down to 25 and we have him projected for 23.

Risk 1.20 to win 1 unit

David Montgomery over 52.5 rushing yards (54.5 -115 at DraftKings)

Not including the game he was injured in against Tampa Bay early, David Montgomery cleared 52 rushing yards in 14-of-16 games last season and we have him projected for 63.5 here. He has a high floor and massive upside in this spot. Jahmyr Gibbs was injured in training camp and is reportedly full go but it wouldn't be surprising to see the Lions lean more on Montgomery here. Even if they don't and it's a split backfield, this matchup is ideal. The Rams lost Aaron Donald, Ernest Jones, and DC Raheem Morris in the offseason. This Rams defense could be among the worst in the NFL after greatly outperforming expectations last season due to great scheming and having one of the best defensive players of all time making everyone better. I expect Montgomery to see a lot of work and be incredibly efficient in a game that should feature some positive game script as 3.5-point favorites.

Also playing alts: on DK O87.5 is +500 which i'm playing for 0.1 units

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit on over 52.5 rushing yards

Risk 0.1 units on over 87.5 rushing yards (-+500 on DK)

Rico Dowdle (DAL) OVER 25.5 rushing yards (-115 at DraftKings)

Available at other books as well. Also playing alt 40+ and 2/1, 50+ at +440 for a bit as well. Normally dont like to over-leverage ourselves into one situation here but everything that has been reported suggests Rico will be the 1A or even clear #1. Our projections have him at 37 yards as the 1B behind zeke, again which I think should probably be flip flopped. Cleveland also allowed a ton of explosive runs so even if he is in the 8 carry range he can mess around with alts here.

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit on over 25.5 rushing yards

Risk 0.3 units to win 0.6 units on 40+ rushing yards

Risk 0.1 units to win 0.44 units on 50+ rushing yards

Dontayvion Wicks UNDER 2.5 receptions (-115 DK)

Dontayvion Wicks played in 10 games where Jayden Reed, Christian Watson, and Romeo Doubs all played more than 10 snaps. In those games he averaged 2.8 targets and 1.9 receptions. In the other 7 games, he averaged 4.9 targets for 3.1 receptions. Rich Hribar further illuminated these splits in his worksheet: "Wicks only had a 19.9% route participation rate on dropbacks with Watson available. That rate went down to 13.3% when both Watson and Reed were on the field and then down to just one route all season with Watson, Reed, and Doubs on the field, who still are projected to be the WR1-WR3." Romeo Doubs is currently "limited" but per Jeff Mueller and others in the know, should be fine and it's mostly a pain tolerance issue. Doubs also said he did everything he wanted at practice yesterday. Wicks is probably looking at a 30-40% snap rate here against an improved Eagles secondary who added Isaiah Rodgers, Quinyon Mitchell, and Cooper DeJean this offseason. They also are switching defenses, all positive factors after last years dismal performance in the secondary. We have Wicks projected for 1.6 receptions here. I also wouldn't touch yards because he is always a threat to catch a bomb. Risk 1.15 units to win 1 un

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit

Gardner Minshew (LVR) UNDER 32.5 passing attempts (-105 at DraftKings)

In hindsight this game might contend for the fewest amount of total snaps in a game all season. Both teams will likely play incredibly slow and run the ball a ton. Last season Pierce ranked 29th in situation-neutral pace when he took over for the Raiders and is committed to the run. On the other side, the Chargers brought in Jim Harbaugh and OC Greg Roman, who ranked 25th in pass rate over expectation and the 2nd fewest offensive plays the last time they coached together. They also lost WRs Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, while adding more beef to their OL. Justin Herbert is also dealing with Plantar Fasciatis and WR Ladd Mcconkey is already a bit banged up. (H/T Pat Thorman's pace article for some tidbits here) With both teams playing slow and running the ball in what's projected to be a close game (Current line LAC -3), this could be an absolute snooze fest. We have 30.6 attempts projected here.

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Khalil Herbert under 40.5 rushing & receiving yards (-115 DK)

Also fine with U31.5 rushing yards as an alternative. This line assumes that Herbert is the clear 1B to Swift's 1A and they will be in a pretty even early-down carry split with little-to-no involvement from Roschon on passing downs. That assumption is based on a small section of a preseason game which I think is pretty fragile. Swift got the first carry between the tackles and then ran off the field. On the next drive he took a screen pass 44 yards and then sat the rest of the game on the bench. In my opinion, it seemed like they understood there was no reason to overwork him in the preseason as their new big signing. The Bears paid Swift the 8th-most money per year among all running backs this offseason after being involved in the Saquon sweepstakes. They were pretty clear about wanting to upgrade their running back room. Local Chicago beat reporters have speculated that Swift will be the workhorse as well. While I don't know if I would go as far top project him as a workhorse, I would be pretty surprised to see Herbert get 10 touches here which is roughly what he would need to approach this line. There are a lot of outs here for this under. If Swift is a workhorse, or the clear #1, this line is off by 20+ yards. If Swift is the 1A to Herbert's 1B, there is a chance Roschon Johnson is involved as well and adds another body to take away touches. Even if the projected split is accurate, Herbert still has to play well against a Titans run defense that projects to be average this year. Good margin here, would play R&R down to 32.

Risk 1.17 units to win 1 unit

DeAndre Hopkins U 51.5 receiving yards (-120 DraftKings)

Brian Callahan said he is "hopeful" that DeAndre Hopkins plays in Week 1, inferring he almost certainly won't be 100%. He hasn't even practiced since getting dinged up weeks ago. The Titans brought in Calvin Ridley and are playing against an above-average Bears unit. There were games last year where Hopkins played and was essentially just a decoy, which is what we are hoping for here. We could see more of the same here, with Ridley and Boyd soaking up more targets than usual. We would play this to 45.

If he doesn’t play, this voids.

Risk 1.33 units to win 1 unit

Zeke Elliott (DAL) UNDER 39.5 rushing yards (-115 DK)

4for4/MonoTone RELEASE co-signed by Noonan and Monotone.

Dowdle is likely the 1A here leaving Zeke to likely a lot of short yardage situations and the occasional drive. They play against the Browns who were a solid run-defense (10th in rushing success rate allowed) and the Cowboys OL got worse in the offseason.

It would take 13+ carries AND being reasonably efficient for Zeke to get here. I don't think he sees the volume or is efficient after 3.5 and 3.8 YPC in two consecutive seasons. I would play this to 33, as we thought this would come in around there.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Brian Robinson - Over 37.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DK)

Another joint play with Noonan and I. I'm bullish on Robinson this season and believe he should have a 2-to-1 carry edge on Austin Ekeler in most weeks, with AE spelling him on clear passing downs. There's also the added efficiency bump that comes with playing with a dual-threat quarterback like Jayden Daniels, and I think we'll see that right away.

Robinson ranked 13th in yards after contact and 22nd in explosive rush rate last season and produced in any game where he saw a decent snap share. New OC Kilff Kingsbury came out last week and said that Brain Robinson is a No. 1 back in this league.

In a neutral script against a middling rush defense (good tackling LBs/soft upfront), I like BRob's upside here on a number we think is about 10 yards too light. I'd play this comfortably to 42.5 or so, and think 40+ (+105, DK) is a good look as well.

Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit

Dalton Schultz Under 3.5 receptions (-106 DK)

FD taking some sizable pops here and would play this to -140. Schultz was barely getting over this last season with Nico and Tank Dell in and out of the lineup with injury. Now they added Stefon Diggs who adds even more target competition along with a healthy Nico and Tank. I think he may have a hard time seeing 4+ targets let alone 4+ receptions.

Risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit

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