Early, Middle & Late Season Target Breakdown For Survivor Pools
Now that you have a good understanding of what a survivor pool is and the main strategies for winning a survivor pool, it’s time to dive into the 2023 season. While general strategies can be helpful for maximizing your chances of winning the big prize, it’s important to understand that every NFL season is unique and has its own quirks.
In this article I will be looking at teams you should consider using at different points throughout the season in order to maximize your value. For the purposes of this exercise, I’ll be splitting the NFL season up into three separate six-week sections and identifying teams that you should target during the early, middle, and late stages of the 2023 season.
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As always, I’ll be referencing the schedule and projected point spreads of every game from 4for4’s NFL Betting Lines spreadsheet.
Early Season Targets
Weeks 1-6 are when the majority of survivor pool players get eliminated. They either choose a team who loses or pick too many of the top teams and set themselves up for failure the rest of the season.
Early in the season, you have to walk a fine line between using “bad” teams and advancing. The Ravens and the Chiefs are currently the two biggest favorites on the board in Week 1, but these are teams you may not want to use up this early in the season in order to save them for high-leverage situations later in the year.
My first target for the early season is actually an opponent. I want to focus on picking teams playing against the Cardinals while Kyler Murray is still recovering from his ACL injury. This works out perfectly for Week 1 as the Cardinals travel to Washington to take on the Commanders. The Commanders are 6-point favorites against the Cardinals in this game and only favored one other time all season against the Bears in Week 4. The most value you’ll get from the Commanders all season is using them in Week 1 against the Cardinals.
While I wouldn’t blame you if you decided to fade the Cardinals every week until Kyler returns, that does require you to use the Cowboys, 49ers, and Bengals all by Week 5. Instead, I want to highlight a team that has a much more difficult second half of the season: the Los Angelos Chargers.
The Chargers love to play close games, and they drive survivor players crazy with their ability to blow leads, but if you’re going to use them it better come early in the season. From Week 9 on they play 10 games and all of them have a projected point spread within three points. You’re never going to feel comfortable using them in the second half of the season so you’ll have to rip the band-aid off early. In Week 4 they host the Raiders and are projected as six-point favorites which is their biggest projected advantage of the season. Avoiding divisional games is usually smart, but if you’re going to use one of the league’s best offenses you have to do it early in the season.
The last early season target is the Jacksonville Jaguars. While fading the worst team in the league is usually a smart idea, fading rookie quarterbacks early in the season is also pretty wise. The Jaguars will be seven-point favorites in Week 3 when they host the Houston Texans. This will be the largest projected spread of Jacksonville’s entire season and they get to host rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud. Now I don’t want to overreact to a few preseason games, but Stroud has not exactly lit the world on fire. The Jaguars' schedule only gets harder the rest of the season due to their first-place finish a year ago so Week 3 may be the best time to use Trevor Lawrence and company.
Mid Season Targets
Weeks 7-12 are crucial in your survivor league. Most small, office pools will finish during this time period. If you’re playing in a larger pool it becomes a time when you have to decide when it is appropriate to pull the trigger on teams like the Chiefs, Bills, and Eagles. Like most advice, it’s not a one-size-fits-all situation; there is plenty of nuance in every single league. I will try and toe that line by identifying teams who are generally good targets for this part of the season.
Week 7 is one of the most challenging weeks of the survivor season for a few reasons. First, there are six teams on bye that week. Byes drastically limit the number of games you have to decide between. Second, there is only one game on the schedule with a projected margin of more than a touchdown. The game is Arizona at Seattle. The Seahawks are projected to be 7.5-point favorites which is their largest projected spread of the season. Also, Kyler still may not have returned from his injury at this point. After this game against the Cardinals, Seattle has to play 11 straight games without a bye, six of which are on the road, and all have a projected spread within four points. Week 7 is the last week you’ll feel comfortable using the Seahawks.
The second middle-of-the-season target is the Buffalo Bills. As I said, during this stretch you have to decide when it’s time to utilize these top-end teams and I think Week 8 is the perfect time for the Bills. In Week 8 they will be hosting the Buccaneers as 10-point favorites. There is only one other team that’s a favorite of a touchdown or more that week and we are saving them for Week 12 so the Bills make a lot of sense here. After Week 8 they have a brutal schedule with road games against the Bengals, Eagles, Chiefs, Chargers, and Dolphins.
The last target, hinted at above for Week 12, is the Dallas Cowboys. If you’re competing in a big pool it’s time to start utilizing the good teams you’ve saved for the home stretch. Week 12 has 16 games being played and only two teams are favored by more than four points: Dallas and Kansas City. I’m going to guess a lot of survivor pools will end in Week 12 this year and if you have Dallas available you’ll be in a great position. The Cowboys are hosting the Commanders and that game is currently projected as a six-point spread. Choose America’s Team and let’s make our way into the last part of the season.
Late Season Targets
Getting to Week 13 of a survivor pool is no easy task; perfection for 12 weeks isn’t easy. However, now it’s time to bring home the trophy. I’m a big fan of saving good teams until the end, as you’ve probably already guessed, but most people are not that risky early in the season. I’ll identify three teams most people will have available late into the season that could provide value for you near the finish line.
The first late-season target is the New York Jets. The Jets are the 2023 NFL offseason champions after bringing in Aaron Rodgers and recently adding Dalvin Cook. However, the first twelve weeks of the season are very difficult. They are never more than a four-point favorite and will be underdogs in five games. The good news is that starting in Week 13 their schedule becomes quite favorable. In Week 13 they are 6.5-point favorites against the Falcons, in Week 14 they are 8.5-point favorites against the Texans, and in Week 16 they are 5.5-point favorites against the Commanders. Also, all three of these very winnable games are at home. Saving the Jets for later in the season also allows Rodgers and all the new pieces time to gel together and improve throughout the year.
The second team that will do well for you late in the season is the Miami Dolphins. Just like the Jets, there aren’t a lot of spots to use the Dolphins early in the season except maybe in Week 6 against the Panthers. Because of that, most people will have them available in Week 14 when they host the Titans as seven-point favorites. By this time the Titans could be openly tanking and starting one of the two young quarterbacks Malik Willis or Will Levis.
The last late-season target is the San Francisco 49ers. Now I understand it may be hard to pass up using the 49ers earlier in the season, but if you save them for the end you’ll be handsomely rewarded. Not only are they favored by three or more points in each of their last five games, but they also have a great matchup in the daunting Week 15 slate. The 49ers are the only team favored by more than six points that week and get to play a Cardinals team who most likely will have their eyes focused on the 2024 NFL draft.
It’s impossible to plan out an entire season of survivor pool picks in August, but this should give you an idea of which teams offer the most value early in the season and which teams should be saved for difficult weeks later in the year.
