Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Buccaneers at Eagles

Oct 14, 2021
Yahoo! Single-Game DFS Breakdown: Buccaneers at Eagles

Yahoo! has a roster construction of one ‘Superstar’ that scores at 1.5 times, while the remaining four roster spots accumulate points at the normal rate. This is half-point PPR scoring and the ‘Superstar’ pricing does not change from the Utility. All scoring and rules can be found here.

The greatest quarterback of all time heads to the city of brotherly love to take on one of the NFL’s most exciting quarterbacks in Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles. The two teams combine to formulate one of the best passing matchups of Week 6, on Thursday.

It is vital to remember that single-game slates are not simply a “max salary, play as many big names as possible, and submit” format, especially in larger tournament fields. We need to identify players that can be pieces in their offense’s success, whether in the lead or trailing, as well as the players that could be focal points in a neutral game script. The ability to then take those players and identify which will succeed in the single-game format will put us in a better position to succeed as daily fantasy players.

For up-to-the-minute and Sunday morning updates, be sure to join the 4for4 DFS subscription-only Discord channel.

More Single-Game Breakdowns: FanDuel/DraftKings

Vegas Total and Spread

Tampa Bay is a seven-point road favorite with an over/under of 52.5 points. The Buccaneers have an implied team total of 29.75 points, while the Eagles’ implied team total is 22.75.

Potential Game Flow Scenarios

Tom Brady ($40) continues to play at an elite level, logging at least 379 passing yards and/or four passing touchdowns in three games. The only time he faltered was against the New England Patriots and Bill Belichick. It also helped that the Patriots defense is top-10 in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks and wide receivers. The Eagles can boast the same ability to slow down quarterbacks and wideouts, ranking third in aFPA to both positions. The Eagles have not allowed a 300-yard passer but have allowed two QBs to throw for three or more touchdowns.

Brady has also been dealing with a right thumb injury. It is reported that he will be fine for Thursday but it Bears your attention.

The Eagles defense ($12) enters healthy and gets Derek Barnett healthy on a short week. The Buccaneers continue to play without Rob Gronkowski (ribs). Cameron Brate ($10) and O.J. Howard ($10) have been afterthoughts, seeing 11 combined targets and 60 yards on a deep team. The bread and butter of the passing game is Brady to Chris Godwin ($23), Mike Evans ($24), and Antonio Brown ($21). Philly has only allowed one 100-yard receiver in five games.

The good news for the Bucs is that Leonard Fournette ($19) has stood out as their lead running back (for now). Lenny has double-digit carries in three of his last four games and saw a season-best 20 during Tampa’s offensive struggle against the Patriots. For the season, Fournette has out-carried teammate Ronald Jones ($14) 56-26. The Eagles have allowed two straight 100-yard rushers and a two-touchdown performance to Ezekiel Elliott in Week 3.

The best matchup of the game will be Jalen Hurts ($36) against the Buccaneers defense ($17). Hurts is averaging 324 total yards and two total touchdowns per game. In fact, Hurts has a touchdown in each game. Hurts’s talent with his arm and legs has not been the best offensive boon for every Eagles skill player. Miles Sanders ($15) has not topped 50 yards rushing and has only reached double-digit Yahoo points in one game. Running mate Kenneth Gainwell ($14) has as many double-digit scoring games as Sanders. Sanders is the lead runner, seeing 85% of carries Week 5 as part of a steady increase in the running work with Gainwell a role in higher scoring games and when trailing.

Hurts has also limited the upside of his receivers. DeVonta Smith ($19) is the only receiver to have a 10-target game, while the team receiving touchdown leader is...Greg Ward ($11). Considering his draft pedigree and tantalizing spurts of talent, it is safe to say more can be expected from Smith sooner than later. In games where the Eagles have played from behind, the tight ends have been vital. Dallas Goedert (COVID-19) is out, leaving Zach Ertz ($14) to carry the workload. Overall, Hurts is targeting the tight end position 8.5 times per game with the position collecting 75 yards.

The Bucs have been abysmal against opposing passing games, ranking 20th or worse against quarterbacks, receivers, and tight ends. The defense will also be without starting LB Lavonte David and S Antoine Winfield Jr.

Close, low-scoring game

Close, high-scoring game

Blowout for home team

Blowout for road team

Cheap/Unique Stacking Option

Traditional stacks such as QB/WR1 or WR2, QB/TE, and RB/DEF are stacks seen used in winning lineups. The obvious choice is not always the winning choice. Below is a cheap stack with at least one unique quality that could break the slate.

Leonard Fournette ($19) and Kenneth Gainwell ($14)

If you listen to 4for4’s T.J. Hernandez you know that one correlation that has been successful of late is running back and an opposing team’s pass catcher. Fournette has been THE guy in Tampa’s backfield and with Brady’s thumb in mind should see a healthy workload. Gainwell is not a traditional receiver but is a zero in the running game. DeVonta Smith is the alpha receiver, Jalen Reagor is an interesting option, and Zach Ertz is going to be heavily rostered. Miles Sanders was also benched last week for not staying inbounds when the offense tried to run the clock.

Low-Priced Volatile Plays

Cameron Brate ($10)

Brate has averaged 3.5 targets per game without Gronk and has seen more targets per snap than O.J. Howard 9.0% to 4.2%. Brate also has three red zone targets this season.

Greg Ward ($10)

Greg Ward has two receptions that have each gone for 15 yards and a touchdown. That is sure to maintain throughout the season when Ward is targeted.

Tyler Johnson ($10)

Johnson has one fewer red zone target than Gronk. The Penn State alum has replaced Scotty Miller in four-wideout sets with the latter on IR. He has been targeted in every game and has three receptions in two of his past three contests.

O.J. Howard ($10)

Howard did out-target and out-produce Brate in Week 5. The question is whether the pendulum swings back Brate’s way or stays on Howard if the tight end position has a role.

Quez Watkins ($14)

Watkins is the only receiver not named DeVonta to top 100 yards receiving in a game this season. He has a safer floor than Jalen Reagor but his fantasy ceiling is tied to his ability to break away from defenders.

Superstar Picks

Jalen Hurts ($36)

Tom Brady has been an elite passer once again but Hurts has 300-yard passing and 100-yard rushing upside. Few possess that in the NFL and Hurts is guaranteed to be in the mix of every Eagles score.

Leonard Fournette ($19)

Playing Fournette and Hurts in a lineup without Brady is a great way to differentiate. Fading the GOAT is a risk but in large-field tournaments, this is an excellent way to cover a large chunk of the offensive touches on both teams.

Tom Brady ($40)

Thumb schmumb. Brady has topped 27 fantasy points in four of five games this season.

Antonio Brown ($21)

I like saving salary where I can and Brown is the cheapest receiver of the big three for Tampa Bay. He has 14 receptions his past two games and at least five in three of four games played.

About Author