DFS Core Four Plays and Value Stacks: Week 4

This Week 4 NFL DFS article consists of two parts, the "Core Four" and value stacks. The Core Four are my four favorite plays on the main slate for any game format, regardless of price or projected percent rostered. All four will almost assuredly be in my cash lineup and be an integral part of my GPP core plays (though they probably won't all be in the same GPP lineup).

For the value stacks, I’ll be using our Stack Value Reports to find stacks that can take down a tournament. I like building contrarian stacks around my chalkier core of players because you only have to get one instance correct for it to hit. Though there may be a chalkier player or two within the value stack, I will usually add a piece from the game that makes the stack a bit contrarian.

For example, if we hit on a contrarian quarterback play while having a pass-catcher or two from that same game, the positive correlation of those stacks is technically getting one contrarian play correct despite filling multiple roster slots. I feel this is easier than having a chalkier stack while trying to hit multiple individual low-rostered plays throughout the rest of your lineup. Keep in mind that these are contrarian stacks, so you don’t have to use these stacks in a large percentage of lineups to be overweight on the field. They should be used in tandem with a chalkier core of players.

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More GPP Strategy: GPP Stacks, Fades, and Leverage Plays | WR/CB Matchups

Core Four Plays

RB D'Andre Swift ($7,700 FD/$6,200 DK)

Normally a split backfield would be worrisome, but Swift and Jamaal Williams are sharing the load just fine. That's probably because the Lions' running backs account for a big percentage of the total team touches. Swift is heavily involved in the passing game, seeing 23 targets through three games. That makes him a bit more valuable on DraftKings, but he's a core play on both sites. The Lions said this week that Swift will be a focal point moving forward because he's looked so dynamic. They are using him inside the red zone and if he had been given due credit for a ball he reached over the goal line he'd probably be about $1,000 more this week on each site. He ranks top three in our value metric and should be strongly considered for cash game lineups.

RB Derrick Henry ($10,200 FD/$8,800 DK)

Derrick Henry is averaging 31 touches a game and gets the Jets defense this week. It's going to be very difficult to pass up on Henry in cash games. I think you have to find a way to jam him in this week given the matchup. That said there is merit to taking shots at the Titans' passing game in tournaments. The big factor for Henry isn't the touches per game—we knew those were going to be massive—but the fact that he is involved in the passing game each week is the deal sealer for cash games. He has 12 targets through three weeks.

The Titans have made a commitment to getting him the ball through the air, which doesn't make him as fragile of a cash game play. With A.J. Brown and Julio Jones both sidelined this week, there is case for another 30-touch Derrick Henry performance. The downside to that argument is that the Jets may stack things up inside, but I don't see that as enough of a minus to not slot him into lineups given his floor and ceiling combination. In fact, stacking the box can be a big mistake, because if Henry finds a crease he'll be off to the races.

RB Najee Harris ($8.200 FD/$6,800 DK)

Najee Harris probably won't see 19 targets again in his football career, but we can still use Roethlisberger's tendency to check down to our advantage. This is another salary that I thought would be a bit higher. Harris hasn't necessarily been effective, but when you see 33 opportunities it doesn't exactly matter. Though I expect the Packers to put up points in this game, which would aid Harris' pass-catching prowess, he is game script independent. With Diontae Johnson returning, I expect Harris to return to single-digit targets, but I still expect north of 20 touches. Harris also has the usage trifecta in that he has seen 15 touches or more in all three games, has accounted for at least 75% of his team's backfield touches, and 30% of his team's total touches. He's in the same boat as Davante Adams in that this is probably the last week of the season he'll be this affordable.

WR Davante Adams ($8,100FD/$7,900 DK)

Davante Adams's price does not match his usage at all. He sports a 38% target share that includes eight targets inside the red zone. All that usage and he only has accounted for one Green Bay touchdown in three weeks. For a player they used extensively at the goal line, almost like a goal-line back, that's clearly not the expected number of touchdowns. Over the next few weeks, I expected to see some touchdown regression. I'm not sure we'll see Adams at a lower salary all season. His production has drastically increased with each game this season, yet his salary has decreased. He rates out as our number one value at the wide receiver position. The Steelers' defense can be had as we saw last week with Ja'Marr Chase and Tyler Boyd combining for three touchdowns.

Value Stacks to Target

QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($7,900 FD/$6,900 DK)

WR Devonta Smith, Eagles ($5,900 FD/$5,700 DK)

WR Tyreek Hill, Chiefs ($8,200 FD/$8,000 DK)

Both defenses leave a lot to be desired, which should create plenty of opportunities for both offenses in this game. We witnessed on Monday night how effortless it is for Hurts to rack up fantasy points. The Eagles got blown out and he still went for 24 fantasy points. If you are stacking the Eagles side of this game as this recommendation implies, I like a skinny stack with just Hurts and Smith. It assumes Hurts racks up fantasy points with his legs and only brings along one pass-catcher. Smith has over seven targets per game which have accounted for a 23% target share.

Tyreek Hill doesn't need much of an explanation in terms of his skill or role in this offense. What I will mention is how amazing of a leverage play he will be this week. Travis Kelce has been the WR1 over the last two weeks. Hill is always on the public's radar, but he is less so coming into Week 4 due to his lackluster performances in Week 2 and Week 3. Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, and even Derrick Henry will all be more popular than Hill in this price range. If you are going to give us Tyreek Hill at a fraction of the ownership of Adams and Kupp, I can get behind that in tournaments. Hill has 111 air yards per game—that's good for a 36% market share of the Chiefs' total air yards. He'll get his shots, he just needs to capitalize.

QB Teddy Bridgewater, Broncos ($6,800 FD/$5,700 DK)

RB Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($6,300 FD/$5,700 DK)

WR Tim Patrick, Broncos ($6,100 FD/$4,900 DK)

WR Marquise Brown, Ravens ($6,400 FD/$5,400 DK)

The first salary that popped off the page when I was reviewing Week 4 pricing was Teddy Bridgewater and his pass-catchers. The Broncos target distribution has been condensed with Jerry Jeudy and K.J. Hamler injured. In Week 2 Courtland Sutton broke the air yards calculator, then in Week 3 Tim Patrick locked up 45% of the Broncos' air yards. They should be both targeted heavily in this game, more so even than in the first three games. The Broncos haven't been pushed on defense very much—in fact, they've played most of their second halves up by two scores. With Lamar Jackson and the Ravens getting points on the board, the Broncos will be forced to turn to the air in this game. Bridgewater has put up two solid fantasy outings in slugfest games. If we are projecting this game to have a bit more scoring, which I am, this should be the best output for the Broncos' passing attack.

Marquise Brown is going to break the breakout model. He left about 30 fantasy points on the board last week with drops. As someone who rostered him last week, I feel compelled to come back for the flop lag this week. He has an average depth of target of 15 yards downfield which has resulted in a 35% air yards share and 30% target share. As I mentioned previously, I think the Ravens push the Broncos in this game from an offensive standpoint creating a solid game environment for a four-man stack. Brown is the long-hitter on this Ravens' team so he is the most sensible bring-back. On top of that, he has been seeing the requisite usage to eventually hit a ceiling game.