Game Flowbotics: Week 1 Picks Against the Spread

The NFL season kicks off tonight, and what better way to enhance the product’s entertainment than with a few bets against the spread. Using my Game Flowbotics spreadsheet, I’ll bring you my favorite bets each week. If you’re already familiar with Flowbotics (“Flow-bah-ticks”) or just under the gun to get picks in before the Week 1 games kick off, feel free to scroll ahead for those best bets. Otherwise, allow me to provide some background on what Game Flowbotics is and how I use it to attack the weekly against the spread and over/under lines.

Game Flowbotics Background

Around 2014, when I was writing for The Fake Football, I became obsessed with trying to predict game flow so I could avoid starting fantasy football players who might get scripted out of touches. Game flow as a concept is much bigger than fantasy football, though. It depends on all phases of the game—offense and defense, passing and rushing, and even special teams—so my need for team-level analysis on those various axes led me away from fantasy analysis to DVOA statistics from Football Outsiders, as well as point spreads and game totals from the betting market.

The purpose of the resulting Game Flowbotics spreadsheets was and is to organize DVOA numbers, betting lines and pace stats to help understand the individual strengths and weaknesses of each team so we can predict holistic outcomes of the matchups on each slate. Eventually, I realized the game script outcomes I was trying to predict could also be leveraged against the same betting lines I was using in the spreadsheets to inform my fantasy decisions.

That realization coincided with the seeds of gambling legalization in the U.S., so I took my Flowbotics-informed picks to the betting accuracy contests at FantasyPros (now BettingPros) for proof of concept. In 2020, I finished sixth among 155 experts in against the spread accuracy, 12th among 74 experts in over/under accuracy and 13th among 62 experts in Moneyline accuracy. Turns out, I was onto something with my Game Flowbotics approach.

With that said, I should emphasize I am not a professional gambler. I came to this through fantasy football, so picking games correctly has always been more about the challenge and the fun than the profits. But if I can have fun making the picks while we all profit from them, that’s the best of both worlds. Let’s hope we get there in the 2021 NFL season.

Week 1 Game Flowbotics (and How to Use It)

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Enough beating around the bush, here’s the Game Flowbotics worksheet for Week 1. And if you’re looking at the page and trying to figure out what it all means, here’s a handy Game Flowbotics primer.

Please note Football Outsiders won’t release their 2021 DVOA numbers until after Week 1, so we’re still working with stats from 2020. Even after the 2021 numbers are released, they’ll only be based on one week’s worth of NFL games. Therefore, early in the season, we have to consider DVOA with more skepticism and lean more on player news and preseason projections. After a few weeks of play, DVOA will start to stabilize and give us better insight into the matchups.

In any case, Game Flowbotics is not a model. It isn’t going to tell us who to pick. Instead, it’s a visualization tool to help us consider a myriad of opposing schemes and forces in each matchup. It’s up to us to translate those considerations into picks on our own. On that note, let’s get to my favorite angles in Week 1 of the 2021 NFL season.

Week 1 Best Bets (1 Unit Each)

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts

Last year’s stats indicate this matchup is pretty even—Seattle finished fifth in total DVOA, Indy finished 10th—so it might not feel great jumping on a road favorite to start the season, but picking against Carson Wentz is just too appealing. It’s been far too long since he’s looked good, and I’m skeptical he’ll be firing on all cylinders with his new team after a foot injury and a stint on the COVID-19 list limited his practice time leading up to Week 1. The Colts will likely lean on their running game as much as possible, but Seahawks coach Pete Carroll should anticipate that and have a plan to counterpunch with his defense.

Seattle’s offensive line is a liability, but Russell Wilson’s scrambling and rushing ability mitigate that fault versus a tough Colts defense. He should be able to buy enough time for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to find space and make plays. In the end, it really shouldn’t require too much offensive success for the Seahawks to outpace Wentz and the Colts on the other side of the ball. I like Seattle for their quarterback continuity advantage, and I like the under.

Picks: SEA (-2.5) -115 at DraftKings, Under (50.0) -105 at PointsBet

Arizona Cardinals at Tennessee Titans

Despite featuring stars Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins, the Cardinals only managed to finish 19th in offensive DOVA last season. But this year, with a full offseason program and the addition of Rondale Moore and A.J. Green to the receiving corps, I’m expecting a higher level of performance. Even if their offense remains clunky, Arizona should continue to run plays at a rapid-fire clip. Their situation neutral pace was the fastest in the NFL last season.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s fourth-ranked offense by DVOA rampaged through opposing defenses at the third-highest situation neutral pace in the league in 2020. They might slow down now that last year’s offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has moved on to coach Atlanta, but a drastic drop-off would surprise me. Regardless, the Cardinals should score relatively easily against the Titans’ bottom-five defense, so no matter how you slice it, this matchup is primed for a lot of scoring. The 52-point total is the second-highest on the slate, but I still like the over.

Pick: Over (52.0) -110 at Caesars

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (in Jacksonville)

This matchup falls on the opposite end of the speed-of-play spectrum, as Green Bay and New Orleans both ranked bottom-four in situation neutral pace last season. The Saints have incentive to run the ball and bleed the clock to keep Aaron Rodgers off the field, and they should find reasonable success doing so versus Green Bay’s below-average run defense. When Rodgers is on the field, he’ll square off against a Saints defense that ranked second in defensive DVOA and third in pass defense DVOA last season. Add it all up, and this game’s 50-point total feels inflated to me.

Pick: Under (50.0) -110 at PointsBet

San Francisco 49ers at Detroit Lions

The Niners struggled with health last year, but Week 1 is a fresh start, and they’re facing a Lions team that finished third-worst in weighted DVOA last season. Then the Lions lost Matthew Stafford and Kenny Golladay over the offseason. Replacing Stafford is Jared Goff, and the San Francisco coaching staff has a firm grasp on how to beat Goff because he’s a common opponent from his time with the Rams.

Week 1 can be scary as it acts as an extended preseason for some teams, and I worry San Francisco might show some rust here on the road, but Detroit simply isn’t very good, and they are even more likely to be rusty with a new quarterback and new coaching staff. As long as Kyle Shanahan doesn’t turtle up on offense after taking only a modest lead, this game should be a bloodbath. I have no issue laying more than a touchdown with the Niners.

Pick: SF (-7.5) -105 at DraftKings

Baltimore Ravens at Las Vegas Raiders

The 4.5-point road favorite feels like a potential trap to kick off Monday Night Football this season, but the Ravens’ defense stacks up well against the Raiders’ offense, and the Ravens’ offense—particularly their rushing attack—should have their way with the Raiders' defense. Baltimore’s combination of nasty defense and punishing run game makes me want to go under on this game as well, but I’m worried their offense might make it most of the way to the 51-point total on their own. The under still feels correct to me, but bettor beware.

Picks: BAL (-4) -110 at DraftKings, half-unit on Under (51.0) -114 at FanDuel

More Rapid-Fire Picks (Half-Unit Each)

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

When two of the worst defenses in the league match up, even mediocre offenses can shoot out.

Pick: Over (45.0) -112 at SugarHouse and Unibet

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots

Two solid defenses, so I expect a close game, and Miami gets to face rookie quarterback Mac Jones in his NFL debut. Give me the points.

Pick: MIA (+3) +104 at FanDuel

Denver Broncos at New York Giants

Late afternoon game, so the west coast team traveling east narrative holds less water. Plus, the Denver defense is legit, while Daniel Jones and Jason Garrett are not.

Pick: DEN (-2) -134 at Unibet

Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Rams

Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford on one side of the matchup with something to prove. Andy Dalton on the other side in primetime against a top-four NFL defense. It’s the Rams versus a sacrificial lamb, go figure.

Pick: LAR (-7.5) -105 at SugarHouse and Unibet

Good luck, everyone!

Please follow @GameFlowbotics on Twitter to get each week’s Game Flowbotics spreadsheet as soon as it’s available, and feel free to contact me there or @gregsauce to discuss the spreadsheet or my picks. For the most up-to-date picks subscribe to 4for4’s Discord. This sheet, from Dan Rivera, tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff). Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.

This article is intended for entertainment purposes and adult users only. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem.