Understanding Tight End Value in TE-Premium Fantasy Leagues

Most people play in either standard or point per reception fantasy leagues and have a basic understanding of the relative importance of a tight end. As the popularity of the FFPC continues to blossom, it’s important to dive into the nuances of tight end premium scoring (1.5 points per reception) and how it should impact your strategy.

PPR vs Tight End Premium Value

The easiest way to analyze how TE premium impacts scoring is by breaking down the past few years and comparing it to PPR scoring. One way to do this is by looking at how the top scoring player at the position performed against the lowest scoring player that should be starting in the league size you are playing in. For example, how much did the overall TE1 outscore the TE12 (in a 12-man league)? This is how long-time fantasy analysts have derived value and formed the “TE1, TE2, TE3” tiers. Even though they sound arbitrary, it makes sense and helps to compare value from position-to-position or between scoring differences. It’s what helped give rise to strategies such as late-round quarterback.

The results were about as expected—in each of the last five seasons, the top-scoring TE has outscored the last “startable” tight end by more points in tight end premium scoring than PPR leagues.

On top of increased scoring output from the TE1, in 4-of-5 years the TE1 was picked within the top-25 overall selections and was either the first or second tight end off the board in terms of positional ADP, the lone exception being Jordan Reed in 2015. Running through our findings so far, the top tight end is more valuable in TE-premium leagues than in PPR leagues due to a greater difference between them and the lowest-scoring starting player. The top tight end is also normally drafted within the top-25 picks and is the first or second tight end off the board.

Tight End Premium Value vs Running Backs & Wide Receivers

Now that we’ve established this, how does the value-based argument of top-scoring tight ends hold up against other positions? Since you start two running backs and two wide receivers in FFPC leagues, we are comparing the No. 1 player at the position to the 24^th instead of the 12^th for tight ends.

Framing positional value this way justifies the running back-heavy start to most FFPC drafts. Some of this analysis is skewed by a player having a record season (See 2019 RB1 CMC who was a league-winner as a top pick) but the overall thought behind shooting for a player that could achieve the positional No.1 season is valid. What’s noticeable is how close wide receivers and tight ends are in this study. The most actionable piece of this data relates to this idea. If WR's and TE's are this close in positional value, should people really be flexing wide receivers as much as they do?

Here are tight end finishes, respective ADPs, and how they would have finished as wide receivers over the past five years in terms of points per game and overall scoring.

Tight End vs Wide Receiver Fantasy Ranks

2019

2018

2017

2016

2015

This exercise helps to truly grasp the importance of TE-premium scoring. Looking at last year alone, Travis Kelce outscored every wideout not named Michael Thomas. Late-round flier Darren Waller outscored DeAndre Hopkins. The examples go on.

2019 wasn’t an aberration either. In terms of points per game, tight ends have been scoring at an impressive clip in this format. Breaking it down by the number of tight ends that would finish as a WR1, WR2, and WR3 in terms of points per game is illuminating.

There are multiple tight ends each year which perform at an extremely high level. In my mind, this makes them an extremely underrated option in the flex spot, especially when considering their ADP.

Projecting Tight Ends in 2020

Looking at 4for4’s TE-premium projections for the upcoming season we see both Travis Kelce and George Kittle projected to top 300 fantasy points and the second-and fourth-highest scorers among all flex-eligible players. Considering only Michael Thomas and Christian McCaffery are projected to top 300 points otherwise, both Kelce and Kittle are in good company.

The next tight ends off the board are usually Mark Andrews and Zach Ertz. Andrews is 26^th in FFPC ADP (24^th among flex-eligible players). He’s projected for 264 points, the 13^th-most among flex-eligible players. Ertz provides similar value with a 35^th overall (33rd flex-eligible) ADP but a projection of the 20^th-highest scoring flex-eligible player (243 points). There are many other value gaps in our projections compared to FFPC ADP that continue to highlight the viability of stacking your flex with tight ends. Even if you don’t want to take our projections as gospel, look over the data I just presented. Over the past five seasons, an average of 4.2 tight ends score at a WR1 rate and 8.4 tight ends score at a WR2 clip or better.

The Bottom Line

• Don’t be afraid to take elite tight ends early. Both Kelce and Kittle will score at a similar rate as top wide receivers and provide a similar positional advantage.
• Loading up on high-upside tight ends can win your league. Players like Mark Andrews and Darren Waller were being selected in the double-digit rounds last year but scored similarly to top-12 wideouts. That type of volatility is hard to come by and can be capitalized by playing the tight end in the flex.
• Pairing an early-round tight end with a bunch of late-round options is extremely viable in this format because you can put one in the flex spot if they pan out, which can reap big rewards.