FantasyDraft Week 13 Value Plays
Each week, I offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two FLEX positions.
Lamar Jackson ($13,600) vs. 49ers
Jackson is priced “down” by his standards because of a matchup against a 49ers defense that allows the second-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks when adjusted for strength of schedule. The reality is that Jackson is as close to matchup-proof as a quarterback can be and San Francisco may not be as big of a challenge as expected. In three games against mobile passers, Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson, the 49ers have allowed an average of 21.8 fantasy points to the position while surrendering at least 25 points in each game. Vegas gives the nod to offense over defense in this one as the Ravens are favored by 5.5 with an implied total over 25.
Jameis Winston ($12,000) @ Jaguars
From a fantasy standpoint, Winston has been as consistent as almost any player at the position, throwing for over 300 yards in a league-high eight games, including six straight. With FantasyDraft’s yardage bonus, that floor is unmatched at this price point. Tampa Bay’s pass-heavy offense combined with their porous secondary always keeps a shootout in the cards and this week is no different—this game has an over/under near 48 with a spread of just one.
Christian McCaffrey ($19,700) vs. Redskins
It’s tough to blindly jam in McCaffrey every week with his ever-rising salary but without Michael Thomas on the main slate and with Lamar priced down, this is a week to pay up for CMC. The running back landscape is littered with mediocre plays on this slate while McCaffrey is in an ideal spot. Carolina is a 10-point favorite at home against a Redskins defense ranked 30th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to running backs.
Saquon Barkley ($14,000) vs. Packers
Barkley has averaged 21 touches per game since returning but his volume hasn’t translated to fantasy production, leading to a steady drop in salary. That price fall makes Barkley one of the best volume plays of the week as the RB6 on the slate. Green Bay ranks outside the top 20 in schedule-adjusted points allowed to running backs, including the second-most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position this year.
Tyler Boyd ($10,400) vs. Jets
Boyd’s nine targets in Week 12 were the most he’d seen in a game in a month and that number should continue to climb. Andy Dalton will be back at quarterback for Cincinnati this week and Boyd averaged 10.3 targets per game in eight games with Dalton compared to 6.7 per game in three games with Ryan Finley. The Jets rank in the bottom five in schedule-adjusted points allowed to wide receivers and Boyd will match up with Brian Poole in the slot, the Jets corner responsible for the most fantasy points allowed per target.
Robert Woods ($9,900) @ Cardinals
The public is low on the Rams offense right now but they just finished a three-game stretch against some of the best defenses in the league. This week, they get a breather against an Arizona defense ranked in the bottom 10 in aFPA to every skill position, with the 26th ranking against wide receivers. Woods leads the Rams in targets over the last month despite missing a game and he will match up against Patrick Peterson, who has allowed the most fantasy points per target among Cardinals corners.
Travis Kelce ($13,600) vs. Raiders
Kelce isn’t cheap by any means but he’s the pass-catcher I’m most willing to pay up for—he comes at a $2,300 discount to teammate Tyreek Hill. Having some exposure to the Chiefs this week is a must as 10-point home favorites with the highest implied point total of the week (30.5). The Raiders have allowed the second-highest touchdown rate through the air this season and they rank 29th in aFPA to tight ends.
Jack Doyle ($6,400) vs. Titans
With Eric Ebron now on Injured Reserve, Doyle will inherit full-time starter duties at tight end for the Colts. The two tight ends have combined for 8.5 targets per game this year and with T.Y. Hilton already ruled out for Week 13, Doyle could be the de facto number one. Tennessee’s biggest weakness on defense has been against tight ends, where they rank 26th in aFPA.
Defense and Special Teams
Panthers ($6,900) vs. Redskins
The loss of Dontari Poe is a huge blow to the Panthers’ defensive line but it should be of little consequence in the immediate future against an atrocious Redskins offense. Poe was a bigger impact as a run-stopper—the pass rush is where fantasy points are created. Carolina ranks in the top three in adjusted sack rate while Washington is a bottom three pass-blocking unit. No starting quarterback has posted a higher interception rate than Dwayne Haskins this year.
Browns ($5,500) @ Steelers
Cleveland is a small favorite in Pittsburgh this week but it’s the matchups that we’re chasing rather than the game script. The Steelers are letting Devlin Hodges start this week and they will again be without JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner. Cleveland is somewhat shorthanded on defense as well but they still rank in the top five in adjusted sack rate and are very cheap against a team of backups.