DraftKings Week 9 GPP Breakdown
In the intro for this space last week, I posited that the field would show a collective overconfidence in chalk plays due to the chalk's recent success, leaving us with a greater opportunity than usual to profit by going against the grain. It's the precise reason you should be thinking about your GPP plays in terms of exposure relative to the field. The more lineups you enter, the more precise you can get with your exposure, but the fewer lineups you enter, the more I'd try to maximize ROI by avoiding chalk whenever possible.
In general, the chalk plays I'm most comfortable playing on a weekly basis are cheap RBs slated to see major volume. That means I'm fine with having more exposure to the field to Charcandrick West (assuming Spencer Ware is out, of course), but I likely won't have Ezekiel Elliott in 30-40% of my lineups, just as I had nowhere near that amount of Julio Jones and Mike Evans last week. In general, the cheaper a player is, the larger margin for error you have if he busts. Remember, any player can roll an ankle or go into the concussion protocol in the first quarter, so it's never smart to approach 100% exposure to any player.
That being said, also remember that you don't need to roster volatile players to win GPPs, and at the end of the day, winning a GPP is about building a higher scoring lineup than everyone else. Sometimes people fall into the trap of thinking about ownership before ceiling, but the point of GPPs is to build the highest-scoring lineup, not the lowest-owned lineup.
We also know that we haven't reached the level of forecasting collectively to the point where all the highest owned players will end up as the week's top scorers -- winning GPP lineups always have a few players in the single digits with at least one player around 5-6% or below.
Ryan Tannehill $5,600 vs. NYJ
Tannehill is a home favorite and is tied for second in the league in pass plays over 40 yards. The Jets are a pass-funneling defense ranked 25th in QB aFPA that just allowed 341 yards and two TDs to Josh McCown last week.
Philip Rivers $6,500 vs. TEN
Rivers will be lightly owned, but always has 300-yard, three-TD upside. The Titans rank 22nd in QB aFPA.
Cam Newton $7,000 @ LA
#AngryCam, anyone? Newton’s price has dropped $1,100 in the last three weeks and he may go overlooked in a game that is kind of in fantasy purgatory. Rostering supremely talented players at low ownership in non-prohibitive matchups is a great strategy in GPPs. The Rams are probably an above-average real-life defense, but rank 19th in QB aFPA. Newton has the third-highest projected ceiling behind only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck this week.
The Most Accurate Projections Since 2010