How Play-Calling Tendencies Affect Fantasy Football

Jul 13, 2017

When projecting stats on the seasonal/weekly level, interpreting how a playcaller will impact the production of his players can be a bit nebulous. There are certainly play callers that clearly trend more towards either the pass or the run, but we also know teams that win more tend to run more, while teams that lose more usually pass more.

The goal of this exercise is to examine play-calling tendencies in specific game script situations with hopes of quantifying exactly how sensitive each offensive playcaller is to game script, as well as how wins and losses might have affected each team’s pass/run splits, starting with the latter.

Play-Calling Tendencies in Wins/Losses

The following table illustrates how sensitive each active playcaller has been to game script, listing the percentage increase in run plays that they called in wins versus in losses:

Rush Rates in Wins vs Rush Rates in Losses, Active Playcallers
Playcaller	Team	Rush % in Wins	Rush % in Losses	Rush % Wins Vs Losses
Hue Jackson	Browns	53.6%	36.5%	17.1%
Mike Mularkey	Titans	52.1%	35.5%	16.6%
Dowell Loggains	Bears	52.4%	36.2%	16.2%
Doug Marrone	Jaguars	52.4%	37.5%	14.9%
Marty Mornhinweg	Ravens	52.2%	38.4%	13.8%
Ken Zampese	Bengals	50.4%	36.9%	13.5%
Dirk Koetter	Buccaneers	49.8%	36.6%	13.2%
Jay Gruden	Redskins	47.7%	35.2%	12.5%
Doug Pederson	Eagles	47.6%	35.3%	12.3%
Rob Chudzinski	Colts	50.5%	38.3%	12.2%
Ken Whisenhunt	Chargers	45.8%	33.6%	12.2%
Bruce Arians	Cardinals	46.7%	34.7%	12.0%
Sean Payton	Saints	43.2%	31.5%	11.7%
Darrell Bevell	Seahawks	52.2%	41.1%	11.1%
League Average		46.1%	35.2%	10.9%
Bill O'Brien	Texans	48.1%	37.4%	10.7%
Todd Haley	Steelers	46.2%	35.6%	10.6%
Andy Reid	Chiefs	46.1%	35.7%	10.4%
Ben McAdoo	Giants	45.1%	34.7%	10.4%
Mike Shula	Panthers	50.2%	39.8%	10.4%
Pat Shurmur	Vikings	48.0%	37.6%	10.4%
Mike McCoy	Broncos	48.5%	36.7%	11.8%
Mike McCarthy	Packers	44.5%	34.8%	9.7%
Josh McDaniels	Patriots	45.6%	36.3%	9.3%
Kyle Shanahan	49ers	46.8%	37.9%	8.9%
Adam Gase	Dolphins	45.6%	37.2%	8.4%
Scott Linehan	Cowboys	44.9%	36.8%	8.1%
Jim Bob Cooter	Lions	39.1%	31.4%	7.7%
John Morton	Jets	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rick Dennison	Bills	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sean McVay	Rams	N/A	N/A	N/A
Steve Sarkisian	Falcons	N/A	N/A	N/A
Todd Downing	Raiders	N/A	N/A	N/A

^{Click header to sort. N/A denotes play callers without a full season of play-calling experience.}

The table above doesn’t tell the entire story, though, because we need to know a baseline rate of how run-heavy a playcaller is to begin with which will allow us to determine his degree of game script sensitivity. Since the amount of time an offense plays with a lead or a deficit can vary from one year to the next, how a playcaller reacts in these situations can have a major impact on the amount of collective volume we should be projecting for the players on his team, especially at the weekly level.

Situational Rush Rates

By looking at a playcaller's rush rate both when his team is in a neutral situation (up/down by fewer than eight points) and when his team is up/down by eight points or more, we can get an idea of exactly what his baseline tendencies are in the first place, as well as an idea of exactly how he tends to adjust his game plan to specific conditions. For instance, does a playcaller that calls a high percentage of runs in wins actually do so at a higher rate than expected given positive game script, or is he also liable to call passes at a higher rate than expected given negative game script?

Below is a look at the difference between the rate each playcaller has a called a run while his team is leading by eight or more and the rate each playcaller has called a run while his team is trailing by eight or more:

Situational Rush Rates, Active Playcallers
Playcaller	Team	Neutral Rush %	Rush % up by 8+	Rush % down by 8+	Rush % up 8+ vs down 8+
Doug Marrone	Jaguars	43.6%	64.4%	26.7%	37.7%
Ken Zampese	Bengals	40.0%	55.6%	23.4%	32.2%
Doug Pederson	Eagles	38.8%	62.9%	30.8%	32.1%
Hue Jackson	Browns	45.4%	59.0%	27.1%	31.9%
Mike Mularkey	Titans	44.4%	58.2%	26.4%	31.8%
Todd Haley	Steelers	41.3%	53.7%	26.9%	26.8%
Bruce Arians	Cardinals	40.9%	53.7%	27.1%	26.6%
Ken Whisenhunt	Chargers	39.6%	50.3%	23.9%	26.4%
Scott Linehan	Cowboys	40.6%	53.9%	27.6%	26.3%
Jay Gruden	Redskins	41.3%	53.6%	27.5%	26.1%
Rob Chudzinski	Colts	42.6%	56.8%	31.0%	25.8%
Marty Mornhinweg	Ravens	44.8%	55.8%	30.4%	25.4%
Adam Gase	Dolphins	43.3%	51.1%	26.5%	24.6%
Darrell Bevell	Seahawks	45.6%	56.0%	31.7%	24.3%
Bill O'Brien	Texans	43.8%	55.1%	30.8%	24.3%
Dowell Loggains	Bears	39.3%	54.3%	30.5%	23.8%
Pat Shurmur	Vikings	41.6%	53.8%	30.1%	23.7%
Mike McCoy	Broncos	44.2%	55.7%	33.3%	22.4%
League Average		40.5%	51.5%	28.0%	23.5%
Mike Shula	Panthers	43.6%	57.0%	33.6%	23.4%
Sean Payton	Saints	36.0%	50.8%	27.9%	22.9%
Dirk Koetter	Buccaneers	43.0%	53.6%	30.8%	22.8%
Ben McAdoo	Giants	39.7%	50.6%	28.1%	22.5%
Mike McCarthy	Packers	38.4%	49.9%	28.0%	21.9%
Jim Bob Cooter	Lions	36.4%	42.9%	21.1%	21.8%
Kyle Shanahan	49ers	40.5%	54.0%	32.3%	21.7%
Andy Reid	Chiefs	39.7%	49.9%	29.0%	20.9%
Josh McDaniels	Patriots	39.7%	50.1%	29.7%	20.4%
John Morton	Jets	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Rick Dennison	Bills	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sean McVay	Rams	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Steve Sarkisian	Falcons	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Todd Downing	Raiders	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A

^{Click header to sort.}

Takeaways

Play callers that are more run-heavy in neutral situations tend to be more game-script sensitive, as they are forced to deviate from their original game plan the most when playing from behind.
When using a play caller’s game script adjustments for fantasy projections, start with their tendencies in neutral situations, which will best represent how they generally want to run his offense.
Vegas future win totals and weekly lines can be used as a guide to project how situational play-calling tendencies will play out on the field in the upcoming season or game, respectively.
Ken Zampese and Doug Pederson are the only play callers that have called passes at least 60% of the time in game-neutral situations and over 55% of the time with a lead of eight or more. Note that both of them only have one year of experience as a primary playcaller.
Adam Gase is the only playcaller that has called runs at a higher than average rate in game-neutral situations while calling passes at a higher than average rate both with a lead or deficit of eight or more.

Applying Game Script Sensitivity to Your Fantasy Football Research

In most cases, the talent level of a team's roster and the game scripts the team finds itself in will ultimately determine its playcaller's philosophy. By quantifying exactly how each playcaller reacts to specific circumstances, we can adjust our player projections accordingly.

Play-calling tendencies are just one piece of a giant puzzle, but the data outlined in this article should serve as an upgrade to basic pass/run splits and oversimplified narratives that tend to surround a team's expectation for the upcoming season. Combined with Vegas forecasts, the analysis of play-calling tendencies relative to game script can offer a major edge—both in preseason fantasy drafts and weekly lineup decisions, so be sure to use them in conjunction with our player projections (updated daily) and customizable cheat cheets.

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