Squirrel’s Nuts & Bolts: Buccaneers - Cowboys TNF Showdown Strategy (Week 5 NFL DFS)

Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off with an NFC Showdown between the Buccaneers and the Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Kickoff is 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Cowboys are favored by 9.5 points at home with the total set at 48.5 points.

The Cowboys are 2-2 and have scored at least 31 points in three straight games, which has them second in the league at 30.5 points per game. Dak Prescott has completed 105 of 150 passes for 1,065 yards, eight touchdowns, and one interception after throwing for 4,552 yards and 30 touchdowns last season. CeeDee Lamb leads the NFL with 37 catches and 498 receiving yards, catching 17 of his 21 targets for 189 yards and a touchdown in Sunday’s win in Houston. Javonte Williams ran for 1,201 yards and 11 touchdowns last season and has scored six times in four games, including three rushing touchdowns against the Texans. The Dallas defense has allowed 28 points per game and ranks 31st against the run at 150.3 yards allowed per game.

The Buccaneers are 0-4, with all four losses by seven points or fewer, and they will be without Baker Mayfield after he dislocated his right thumb late in the Week 3 loss to the Vikings. Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie out of Kansas, makes his second start. In his first, against the Packers, he completed 19 of 27 passes for 148 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, and he ran eight times for 55 yards. Chris Godwin led the team with seven targets and caught six for 31 yards, while Emeka Egbuka caught two of four targets for 13 yards after a 938-yard rookie season. Bucky Irving has 241 yards on 56 carries and 13 catches, though he did not catch a pass against the Packers. The Buccaneers rank third against the run at 78.5 yards allowed per game, and they will be without safety Antoine Winfield Jr., cornerback Benjamin Morrison, and linebacker SirVocea Dennis.

This Showdown gives us the league’s second-highest scoring offense against an undrafted rookie quarterback making his second start. Let’s break down this Thursday night NFC Showdown, highlight the key plays, and uncover the strategies that could help you climb the leaderboards.

How I Plan to Beat the Field

Full DraftKings and FanDuel ownership projections are available on our Showdown Ownership Projections page. CeeDee Lamb is the most popular CPT on DraftKings at 23%, followed by Javonte Williams (16%) and Dak Prescott (13%). On FanDuel, Prescott leads the MVP ownership at 29%, with Jalon Daniels at 18% and Williams and Lamb at 17% apiece.

My plan to beat the field tonight starts with being under the field on both quarterbacks in the top spot and over the field on the skill position players around them. Prescott and Daniels combine for 21% of the CPT ownership on DraftKings and 47% of the MVP ownership on FanDuel, where they are two of the four most expensive players. Lamb has 498 of Prescott’s 1,065 passing yards, and Williams has scored six of the Cowboys’ 14 touchdowns, so a big Dallas game likely runs through one of them. Daniels has a 184.5 passing yards prop and threw one touchdown pass in his first start, and Tampa Bay is a 9.5-point underdog on the road.

Lamb is the top play on the slate, and he deserves the ownership. He has 46 targets in four games, 18 more than any teammate, and his -120 anytime touchdown price is the second-shortest on the board. The only question with Lamb is how different from the field you want to be. My answer is to stay close to the field on him at CPT and MVP and get different with the running backs.

Williams is where I’ll be the most over the field, particularly on FanDuel. He costs $10,400 there, which is less than both quarterbacks, and the half point per reception puts more weight on rushing yards and touchdowns. His -195 anytime touchdown price is the shortest on the slate. He’s $10,800 on DraftKings, and I’ll still be over the field on him at 16% CPT ownership.

On the Buccaneers’ side, I’d rather have Irving than Daniels in the top spot. Irving projects for 10% CPT ownership on DraftKings, where he’s $2,400 cheaper than Williams, and 6% MVP ownership on FanDuel. I’ll also have more Pickens than the field on both sites, particularly at 3% MVP ownership on FanDuel.

Here are the players I’m targeting in the CPT/MVP spot tonight, with their DraftKings CPT prices:

CeeDee Lamb ($17,700): Lamb caught 75 passes for 1,077 yards in 14 games last season, and he is already almost halfway to both numbers. His 82.5 receiving yards prop is 19 yards higher than any other in the game. He’s the most expensive player on both sites and still the first name in my CPT/MVP pool.

Javonte Williams ($16,200): Williams has run 19 times in each of the last two games and has 15 catches on 17 targets. His 68.5 rushing yards prop is 16 yards higher than Irving’s, and no other player on the slate is shorter than -120 to score.

Bucky Irving ($12,600): Irving ran 16 times for 61 yards in Daniels’ first start, and Tampa Bay ran the ball 31 times against 27 pass attempts in that game. His 52.5 rushing yards prop is the second-highest in the game, and his +180 anytime touchdown price is the shortest on the Buccaneers. He costs $800 more than Williams on FanDuel, so I’ll use him more on DraftKings.

For the FLEX positions, I’ll keep both kickers in the pool on a 48.5-point total. Brandon Aubrey ($5,400) made 36 of 42 field goals last season and has eight makes in the last three games, and Chase McLaughlin ($5,000) is 9-for-9. McLaughlin was on the injury report with a groin injury but has no game designation. Aubrey projects for 35% FLEX ownership on DraftKings and 42% on FanDuel against 33% and 37% for McLaughlin. I again expect to be underweight on the defenses, though the Cowboys D/ST ($4,800) gets an offense that has allowed 16 sacks and a quarterback who has thrown three interceptions on 30 attempts. Dallas has four sacks in four games. Among the players I like in the FLEX spots, Pickens projects for 20% FLEX ownership on DraftKings and 28% on FanDuel, with Ryan Flournoy at 30% and 19% and Cade Otton at 27% and 17%.

George Pickens ($9,400): Pickens caught 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns last season. He has 18 catches for 225 yards on 28 targets and has yet to score, and his +110 anytime touchdown price is the third-shortest on the slate. He’s $2,400 cheaper than Lamb on DraftKings and $3,000 cheaper on FanDuel.

Cade Otton ($4,400): Otton leads the Buccaneers with 157 receiving yards, and his 23 targets are one behind Egbuka for the team lead. He caught four of six targets for 37 yards in Daniels’ first start. He costs less than both kickers on both sites.

Ryan Flournoy ($3,800): Flournoy is third on the Cowboys with 23 targets and has 13 catches for 104 yards. His DraftKings price helps fit Lamb, Prescott, and Williams into the same lineup, and at $5,200 on FanDuel, he still costs less than both kickers and both defenses.

With that player pool in mind, let’s move on to some lineup rules to consider for strong roster construction.

Lineup Rules to Consider

Here are some rules to consider when building lineups for this Showdown contest:

When I use Dak Prescott at CPT, I’ll pair him with multiple receivers in the FLEX spots, and I’ll let Jalon Daniels stand more on his own.
Prescott is a prototypical passer with a 9.5 rushing yards prop, so if he lands at the CPT spot in a winning lineup, he’ll likely have to bring a couple of Cowboys pass-catchers along with him. Both running backs count as receivers for their quarterbacks since they catch passes. Daniels is different. His 43.5 rushing yards prop is the third-highest in the game, so a Daniels CPT lineup can get by without a Buccaneers pass-catcher.

I’ll use one RB per team.
My usual rule is to limit rosters to one RB per team, since a big game from a backup usually comes at the expense of the starter. On the Cowboys’ side, it’s Williams. On the Buccaneers’ side, Kenneth Gainwell ($4,000) is the passing-down back behind Irving with eight catches on 12 targets and 13 carries. When I use Gainwell, it will be with Daniels and without Irving, as a bet that the Buccaneers are behind and throwing.

I’ll pair WRs in the CPT spot with their QB in the FLEX spots.
This is a common-sense correlation rule. If a WR has a big enough game to end up in the CPT spot, he likely added enough points to his QB to elevate him into a FLEX spot.

I’ll use, at most, two receivers from one team in the FLEX spots unless I’m using their QB as the CPT in that lineup.
If three receivers from one team land in the winning lineup, it’s likely their QB had the best day of all. Putting the QB at the CPT spot in this case makes logical sense.

A Look at the Prop Market

Let’s take a look at some player props that could provide insight into how the game might play out. Note that these aren’t betting recommendations, but they are props worth keeping in mind when building DFS lineups.

• Javonte Williams - O/U 68.5 Rushing Yards, O/U 13.5 Receiving Yards, Over 2.5 Receptions (-123), Anytime Touchdown (-195)
  • DraftKings: $10,800 ($16,200 CPT)
• Bucky Irving - O/U 52.5 Rushing Yards, O/U 12.5 Receiving Yards, Over 2.5 Receptions (+118), Anytime Touchdown (+180)
  • DraftKings: $8,400 ($12,600 CPT)

Comparing the prop market expectations for the two lead running backs, we can see that the market gives Williams a 16-yard edge on the ground at 68.5 to 52.5, with the receiving yards a yard apart. The biggest gap is in the touchdown market, where Williams is -195, and Irving is +180. Irving is $2,400 cheaper on DraftKings, and he projects for 10% CPT ownership there to Williams’ 16%. The prices flip on FanDuel, where Irving costs $800 more than Williams and projects for 6% MVP ownership to Williams’ 17%. Williams has the better numbers across the board, and he’s the one I’ll use the most. Irving gets a Dallas defense that ranks 31st against the run at lower ownership on both sites, which makes him another top option in the CPT/MVP spot.

This Thursday night Showdown gives us a Cowboys offense averaging 30.5 points per game and two running backs I want in the top spot more than the quarterbacks. Let’s build some sharp lineups, enjoy the game, and hope to cash in under the bright lights!