2026 NFL Mock Draft: Connor Allen's 1.0
After turning in legitimately the worst mock draft in the industry two years ago (actually), I bounced back last year to a respectable spot. I think that means the trends say that this year I’ll submit the most accurate mock in the industry, then? Jokes aside, the goals of these mocks is accuracy and what I think the team will do, not what I would do if I were in charge of the team.
With increased liquidity across prediction markets and sweepstakes books in addition to the standard liquidity at domestic sportsbooks, we will likely be releasing a few draft plays closer to the draft itself.
In the meantime, I have been jamming NBA and CBB props, up 5+ units on sports I genuinely know little about in the last week. Leveraging sharp books against others and finding mispriced lines using Sharp Stack has been the key. If that sounds interesting to you, use code: SHARP2 to get a free 7-day trial and your first month for $10. It will also include all of our NFL draft bets.
2026 NFL Mock Draft 1.0
1. Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
I don’t think this is worth spending much time on. The Raiders need a quarterback, and Mendoza is the clear QB1 right now, coming off an incredible season at Indiana, capped off by a National Championship.
2. Jets: Arvell Reese, LB/EDGE, Ohio State
This is one of the chalkier picks on the board, with 75% of consensus mocks going with Reese to the Jets, and I get why. The Jets need more defensive playmakers after finishing with just four takeaways last season. Reese is a rare athlete at 6-foot-4, 243 who can play in a variety of spots for them on the EDGE or off the ball. The Jets also brought in Brian Duker as DC and Karl Dunbar, both of whom dial up a 3-4 defense, where Reese would be a perfect fit.
3. Cardinals: Francis Mauigoa, OL, Miami
The Cardinals could go in a couple of directions here, but building a mauling OL might help them the most. Mauigoa is an anchor with a 1.6% pressure rate allowed and zero sacks allowed in 2025. Monti Ossenfort has drafted premium positions at the highest rate among qualified GMs at 79% overall, and in Rounds 1 and 2, he is at 100% premium positions and 100% Power 5.
4. Titans: Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
A running back at No. 4 is rich, but it makes a ton of sense for this Titans team. There are entire articles written on whether or not a running back is worth it at pick 4, but our opinions are irrelevant. All that matters is if Tennessee thinks so or not. The Titans need more explosive weapons around Cam Ward, and this is one of the few backs in recent years where that kind of swing at least makes some sense. He gives them a true offensive centerpiece and instant juice in both the run game and passing game after adding to the trenches last season. If the Titans want an identity fast, this would do it.
5. Giants: Spencer Fano, OL, Utah
Among other reasons, Brian Daboll was canned last season for his inability to protect Jaxon Dart. I think they go out of their way to address that here. The Giants need OL, DL, and WR, and Fano checks the first box in a big way. The knock on him was originally his shorter arms, but at his Pro Day, he measured much longer than at the Combine. I'm not sure how that's possible, but media members are saying teams are putting stock into it.
6. Browns: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
Cleveland badly needs more juice on offense, and Tate gives them a true boundary X at 6-foot-3, 195 with real ball skills and big-play ability. Andrew Berry’s draft profile also leans very young. His full-draft average age is 22.0, the youngest among qualified GMs, and his Round 1-2 non-QB picks average just 21.4, with 88% of them under 22. Tate is 21, and also went to college in Ohio at Ohio State.
7. Commanders: David Bailey, EDGE, Texas Tech
Bailey could go as high as 2 or fall to the back half of the top 10. Washington still needs one more disruptive force off the edge, and Bailey absolutely brings that. He had 19.5 tackles for loss, 14.5 sacks, and led Power 4 edge rushers with a 24% pressure rate. Commanders beat writer Ben Standig also had Bailey here in his latest mock.
8. Saints: Rueben Bain, EDGE, Miami
The Saints could go receiver here, but with Tate off the board, Bain feels like one of the cleaner value-meets-need fits in the round. New Orleans still needs help at WR, edge, CB, DL, and OL, so there are a lot of paths, but Bain solves a pretty real front-seven need. He’s built like a power end at 6-foot-3, 275, and still led Power 4 edge rushers with 75 QB hurries while posting a 24% win rate.
9. Chiefs: Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Kansas City lost a ton in the secondary this offseason, and Downs is a versatile fit. He can play near the box, handle slot work, erase tight ends, and still survive in deeper alignments when needed. Brett Veach also leans younger in Round 1, with five of his six first-round picks under age 22, so taking a 21-year-old do-it-all DB here tracks pretty well.
10. Bengals: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
Styles could go as high as 5, but I tend to think he goes closer to 10 as a true linebacker. Cincinnati’s defense was a mess last year, and Styles gives them range, size, and some actual versatility in the middle of it. Former safety, 40-inch vertical, 11-foot broad, and a near-perfect 9.99 relative athletic score.
11. Dolphins: Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU
Miami could justify a few different directions, but corner is one of the cleaner ones. The Dolphins need help basically everywhere, and the secondary is still very much under construction. Delane feels like a strong value here and one of the more believable first-round corner fits on the board.
12. Cowboys: Keldric Faulk, EDGE, Auburn
In order for Dallas to be competitive, they need some semblance of a defense. Not a ton of juice, but after adding Quinnen Williams, their run defense vastly improved. Adding some EDGE help could lead to some defense being played. Faulk is big, young, and toolsy with immediate run-defense value, which helps him get on the field early while the pass-rush polish comes along. Jerry Jones’ full-draft history also leans premium position at 68%, and in Rounds 1 and 2, that jumps to 74%. Staying on the defensive front here would be very on brand.
13. Rams: Mekai Lemon, WR, USC
This is a fun one. The Rams need another dynamic receiver, with Puka having quite the offseason and Davante Adams nearing his end. Lemon mostly profiles as a slot, sure, but not slot-only. He had the best yards per zone route figure in the class at 3.5, hardly dropped the ball, and has enough toughness and route feel to stay on the field in two-receiver sets.
14. Ravens: Olaivavega Ioane, IOL, Penn State
Baltimore losing Tyler Linderbaum leaves a pretty glaring hole inside, so I’m not going to overthink this one. Ioane fits a real need, and this is the kind of plug-and-play interior pick the Ravens are usually pretty comfortable making.
15. Buccaneers: Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee
Tampa Bay needs help at every level of the defense, and corner is one of the cleaner ways to address it. McCoy’s medicals are the obvious conversation point, but the talent is there, and Jerry Jones’ public “no red shirts” stance makes it easier to slide here to Tampa despite him being the chalk for the Cowboys at 12 in most mocks.
16. Jets: Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
Simpson just took a visit to the Jets this week, and there has been a lot of buzz recently among fellow CAA-managed media members that Simpson, not Mendoza, is the QB1 in this class. That is almost certainly carrying water for players in their agency, but there is likely some truth that teams like him more than the fringe Round 1 consensus in mocks. The Jets do not have to force a quarterback at 2 because Geno gives them a bridge, but the long-term need is obviously still there. I’m skeptical Geno survives the whole season as the starter and would expect them to take a QB sometime early.
17. Lions: Kadyn Proctor, OT, Alabama
Detroit needs a long-term answer at left tackle after moving on from Taylor Decker, and this feels like a classic Brad Holmes swing. Proctor is massive, talented, and still not a finished product, which is usually where some of the best OL value lives. Holmes has gone 100% Power 5 in Rounds 1 and 2, and 54% of those picks were under 22. The 20-year-old Alabama product is a great fit here.
18. Vikings: Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon
Minnesota needs DL, OL, and safety, and Thieneman gives Brian Flores another movable piece on the back end. He’s been wildly productive, with 100-plus tackles in each of his first two years before another 96-tackle season at Oregon. He’s the kind of safety that usually goes earlier than expected once teams get involved.
19. Panthers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
A year after the Panthers surprised a lot of people by taking Tet McMillan, Carolina needs even more help for Bryce Young. While the trenches and secondary are absolutely in play, Sadiq gives them a real mismatch piece who can stay on the field because he blocks. He’s around 245 now, jumps 41.5 inches, and flashed insane athleticism metrics at the Combine. Dan Morgan has the most athletic Round 1-2 profile among qualified GMs, with a 9.9 average RAS and a perfect 100% Power 5 rate.
20. Cowboys: Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson
They already snagged a defensive lineman earlier, and now are adding some help in the secondary with Terrell. AJ’s brother, he is a multi-year starter and would be immediately helpful for a Cowboys secondary lacking talent.
21. Steelers: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
Pittsburgh still needs more help at receiver behind DK Metcalf and Michael Pittman Jr., and Tyson can play in the slot and outside, as can Pittman. Maybe they go with Concepcion instead, but Tyson is the better overall prospect. Omar Khan has been premium-position obsessed early, with 76% premium positions overall and 100% premium positions in Rounds 1 and 2. A receiver here would fit that trend just fine.
22. Chargers: Akheem Mesidor, DL, Miami
The Chargers need help on the line, at edge, and in the interior, so keeping them in the trenches adds up. Mesidor is older than some of the other first-round DL bets, but he can flat out play and should help early. Joe Hortiz hasn’t cared all that much about age, with his average pick at 22.8 years old, 23rd among GMs.
23. Eagles: Blake Miller, OL, Clemson
The Eagles taking offensive line help is almost always a pretty easy sell. Lane Johnson is still playing well, but Howie tends to think ahead, and the need for an eventual successor is right there.
24. Browns: Monroe Freeling, OL, Georgia
If Cleveland starts with Carnell Tate and comes back with a tackle, that feels like a really strong first round. Freeling has legit left tackle tools and gives them another answer at a spot that still needs attention. Berry’s draft history tilts young and Power 5 early, so this checks out there too. This would be a pretty balanced way to attack Cleveland’s biggest problems.
25. Bears: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
Safety is an obvious need for Chicago, so I’m not going to get too cute here. Ryan Poles loves good athletes, with Round 1-2 non-QB picks averaging a 9.4 RAS, third-best among qualified GMs. McNeil-Warren is at an 8.98 RAS, well above average and approaching elite.
26. Bills: Omar Cooper, WR, Florida State
Buffalo still needs more juice at receiver, even after the addition of DJ Moore, as he is likely to be more of a flanker with Shakir in the slot. The Keon Coleman era needs to end, so adding Cooper could instantly vault the Bills receiving room into a dynamic unit.
27. 49ers: Caleb Lomu, OL, Utah
San Francisco needs young offensive line reinforcements, and Lomu fits the type of developmental tackle bet teams make late in Round 1. As long as he avoids too much exposure to the power station he could be a great fit.
28. Texans: Kayden McDonald, DL, Ohio State
Houston keeping the front loaded is easy to buy. McDonald is basically a true nose tackle, but he’s a very good one, and his run-defense profile is exactly what teams looking to get sturdier inside will love. At 6-foot-3 and 326, with 31 solo tackles and 9.0 TFLs, he is not just a space-eater. Nick Caserio has gone 100% Power 5 in Rounds 1 and 2, so a player like this fits the usual mold pretty well.
29. Chiefs: KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
Concepcion gives Patrick Mahomes another weapon while he works back from the ACL, while Rice’s legal troubles leave his status constantly in flux. The Chiefs still need more pass-catching help, especially someone who can create after the catch and offer some versatility. That part of the roster still needs work.
30. Dolphins: Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
The Dolphins need help everywhere, but WR sits right near the top after all the turnover and Jaylen Waddle trade. Boston gives them some size on the boundary and something stylistically different from what the room has had. Speaking of, their current receiver room consists of Malik Washington, Jalen Tolbert, Tutu Atwell, and Terrace Marshall, with Greg Dulcich at tight end. Malik Willis may not complete 15 passes a game without some serious help. Boston would be a step in the right direction.
31. Patriots: Colton Hood, CB, Colorado
New England still needs edge and DL more, but corner is absolutely in the mix as well, and Hood fits the kind of athletic Power 5 profile Eliot Wolf has favored early. Wolf’s early-round picks have averaged a 9.2 RAS, and all have come from Power 5 schools. Hood ripped a 9.65 RAS at the Combine.
32. Seahawks: T.J. Parker, EDGE, Clemson
Seattle does not have one screaming need, which is a good place to be. That also makes it easier to just take a good front-seven player at the end of the round. Parker gives them edge help after losing Boye Mafe, and Schneider’s early-round history leans heavily toward Power 5. Not the flashiest way to end the round, but a pretty sensible one.
I’ll have at least two more mocks prior to the NFL Draft, and Scott Smith, Ryan Noonan and I will continue doing our weekly draft show called Move The Line, where we break down the latest draft news and how to bet on it. H/T PFF, Clev TA’s GM tools, and Hayden Winks’ player rankings for some of the stats.
