Jake's Wild Card Round NFL Player Prop Bets

Every week, I’ll be posting a few of my favorite plays in this article with brief write-ups of each play. I’ll use this space up top to recap the previous week and share any thoughts or takeaways I have going forward.

Get 25% off any of our packages at 4for4 with code: WIN25

Week 18: 9-2, +$627

Overall: 79-57, +$1,528

9.64% ROI

Assumes betting to win $100 on a minus odds prop and risking $100 on a plus odds prop

Week 18 Recap

Week 18 was one of our best weeks of the season, and it marked a sixth straight winning week! Overall, I was super confident in the bets I was able to get out last week. Stroud under 33.5 pass attempts was a super strong bet and closed at 30.5 or 29.5, depending on the book. It was known that Houston wasn't playing for much if Jacksonville expectantly blew out the Titans, which they did. We got the easy win on Stroud as he only played a half. A couple of others I was super confident in were both Lance over 26.5 rush yards and Lance under 174.5 passing yards. Lance is a well below-average passer in the NFL, but he makes up for it with his legs when he does play. Against a stout defense like Denver, which generates a lot of pressure, it was very apparent that a player like Lance would struggle as a passer and use his legs A LOT. Despite Lance dropping back an astronomical 53 times, he only completed 20 passes and finished 40 yards short of his passing yardage line. Lance also scrambled 5 times, which was a big reason he finished with 9 carries for 69 rushing yards. Both bets on Lance were sweat-free. I'll highlight one more win: Mayfield under 33.5 pass attempts. Carolina's defense is a massive, massive run funnel, and it's no surprise the Bucs were 28th in PROE this week. Mayfield went under this number by a wide margin in Week 16 and again in Week 18. I'm not sure why we ever saw a 33.5 pass attempts line on Mayfield in this matchup.

The one loss I'll highlight is Keaton Mitchell over 18.5 rush yards. Mitchell had been rotating in and out with Henry for a few weeks before this past Sunday, but in a must-win elimination game, the Ravens leaned heavily on Henry. I can't find the exact quote, but I remember during the broadcast Collinsworth said something along the lines of being told by a Ravens coach there would be no rotation in the backfield, implying Henry would play almost every snap. Sucks, wish that was publicly reported on the Ravens shifting away from a rotation, but you can't win them all. Hopefully, the positive streak continues into the playoffs!

Wild Card Round Bets

Tommy Tremble OVER 16.5 Receiving Yards (-114)

Tremble has played five games without Ja'Tavion Sanders, and in those games, he's averaged 2.8 recs for 26.4 yards. In Week 18, Tremble posted his highest route participation of the season 83%. As 10.5-point underdogs against a Rams offense that can pour on points fast, it's expected that the Panthers will have to get something going through the air if they want to keep up with the Rams' high-powered offense. With Tremble creeping into a full-time role for the first time without Sanders, this line is too low in a matchup that should force Bryce Young to drop back more than usual.

Xavier Legette UNDER 1.5 Receptions (-112)

In Week 18 Legette caught three balls which is the most he's caught since Week 12, he played the lowest percentage of snaps he has all year and ran only 16 routes on 36 Bryce Young drop backs (44% route participation), Legette ran super hot on his limited playing time earning four targets to post a 0.25 TPRR, which is much higher than his season long TPRR of 0.14. Canales and the Panthers did what they should've done weeks ago, which is make Coker a full-time player (94% route participation in Week 18) and kick Legette to the curb. We expect Legette to compete with rookie Jimmy Horn for playing time now. Also, in Week 13, Legette ran 70% of the routes versus the Rams and only managed to catch one ball.

Omarion Hampton UNDER 50.5 Rush Yards (-111)

Hampton is coming off another sprained ankle, this time it's his right ankle, not his left. He DNP'd on Wednesday and Thursday, but practiced today (Friday) and was seen wearing an absurdly large ankle brace. Hampton is going to play through this ankle sprain, but it's unlikely he'll see a full workload as he had in Weeks 16 and 17. We think the Chargers make the split between Hampton and Vidal closer, as we saw in Week 14 when Hampton returned from his first ankle sprain, and Hampton ran 13 times that game, and Vidal ran 14. New England got their stud DT back, Milton Williams. With Williams on the field, New England has one of the best run defenses in the NFL, and it's no secret just how bad the Chargers' OL is. Hampton has both volume concerns and efficiency concerns, given he's playing through an injury, and the Pats' Run D is stout.

Rico Dowdle UNDER 12.5 Rush Attempts (-112)

Dowdle burst onto the scene when Chuba got hurt early in the season and exploded for games of 206, 183, and 130 yards in a 5 week span, where the Panthers went 4-1. However, excluding the first two games of the year (Rico was a non-factor), Rico has gone under 12.5 carries 5/7 times in Panthers losses this season and has stayed under this number in the last 3 weeks of the season. The Panthers enter this game as 10.5-point home dogs, playing a team that is clearly much better than they are. Despite the Panthers beating the Rams and winning the time of possession battle by 10 minutes in Week 13, we should see the Rams possibly dominate the time of possession here, as the Panthers' defense is a massive run funnel. If the Rams find success on the ground, they should be able to play keep away and give the Panthers a taste of their own medicine from Week 13. Additionally, we had this quote from Panthers HC Dave Canales two weeks ago about Chuba Hubbard: "I love Chuba. Gonna give him the ball some more and find ways for him to impact the game, because he's just a guy that I really trust." While Chuba's workload didn't increase after what Canales had to say about Chuba, it's still noteworthy, given Rico posted another extremely inefficient stat line.

If you're a new subscriber, welcome! Also, you're missing out if you're not in our subscriber Discord. All of our plays are released there. Join the Discord, head to #Role-Assign, and turn on "NFL Prop Star" and “Jake’s Betting Plays” to receive push notifications whenever a prop is released by the 4for4 NFL team. Go to Channels & Roles and customize your Discord experience. After bets are released via Discord they will be posted to this article.

Track Every Edge with Sharp Stack

If you’re serious about betting, you need tools that give you an edge. Sharp Stack is a full suite of betting tools featuring:

• +EV Finder – instantly spot bets with positive expected value
• Arbitrage Tool – lock in guaranteed profit opportunities across books
• Prop & Odds Screen – compare lines across NFL, CFB, MLB, WNBA, and more in real time

Start your 7-day free trial today and get 25% off your subscription with code WIN25: 4for4.com/plans