Squirrel’s Nuts & Bolts: Bills - Texans Showdown Strategy (Week 12 NFL DFS)

Nov 20, 2025

Denny Simmons / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn

Week 12 of the NFL season kicks off with an AFC showdown between the Bills and Texans in Houston. Both teams are solidly in the playoff picture, with the Bills coming in at 7-3 and Houston at 5-5, but currently holding tie-breakers over Kansas City and Baltimore. It’s a strength-on-strength matchup between an excellent Bills offense that ranks fourth in the league in points per game against a top Houston defense that allows the fewest points per game in the NFL. The Bills are favored by 5.5 points on the road with the total set at 43.5 points.

The Bills’ offense continues to revolve around last year’s NFL MVP Josh Allen, who ranks seventh in the league in passing touchdowns and third in rushing touchdowns. Allen has spread the ball around all season – ten different Bills have caught touchdowns – though Khalil Shakir still leads the team with 454 receiving yards despite managing just one catch for -3 yards last week. Sorting through Buffalo’s pass-catchers could be key for this Showdown slate, with TE Dalton Kincaid out and WR Keon Coleman expected to be inactive again. On the ground, James Cook has been outstanding, ranking second in the league with 968 rushing yards and tied for sixth with seven rushing touchdowns.

While Houston’s defense has been elite, the offense has struggled — ranking 19th in yards per game and 21st in points per game. Davis Mills will start his third straight game with C.J. Stroud still sidelined by a concussion, and he’s exceeded expectations by averaging 283 passing yards and three touchdowns over his two starts (both wins). WR Nico Collins and TE Dalton Schultz lead the team in receiving yards and receptions, with Collins in particular putting up two of his best games this season, the last two weeks with Mills under center. The backfield remains a split between Nick Chubb and rookie Woody Marks, though Marks has handled the majority of the work in recent weeks.

This game is a classic matchup between an excellent offense against a shutdown defense, and should have a major impact on the AFC playoff picture. Let’s break down this AFC showdown, highlight the key plays, and uncover the strategies that could help you climb the leaderboards.