Zay Flowers' Fantasy Outlook Remains Tied to the Ravens’ Identity

Zay Flowers has quickly become one of the most electric playmakers in the league. Yet, his fantasy output still comes with an asterisk or two. While the Ravens’ offense has taken off under Todd Monken, it continues to center around Lamar Jackson, a deep backfield, and two highly involved tight ends. That structure has created occasional frustrations for fantasy managers, even as Flowers leads the team in nearly every major receiving category.

Heading into Year 3, the talent is undeniable. The bigger question is whether the offensive environment will ever allow him to make a leap into the elite tier. Let’s take a look at what’s changed, what hasn’t, and how to value Flowers heading into 2025.

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Zay Flowers' Career

Coming out of Boston College in the 2023 NFL Draft, Zay Flowers was pegged as an undersized (5’9”, 182 pounds) prospect, but it clearly didn’t faze the Baltimore Ravens, who spent the 23rd-overall selection on BC’s all-time leading receiver. He was slotted for… well, the slot, with Rashod Bateman, Nelson Agholor, and Odell Beckham on the roster, but it didn’t take long for the rookie to prove he had a knack for giving the offense a spark no matter where he lined up. His 14 slot snaps in Week 1 would end up being his season-high until Week 14, when he logged 16.

The biggest downfall of his first professional season stemmed from his suppressed average depth of target; 67 of his 104 targets were within nine yards of the line of scrimmage (64.4%), with 28 of those coming behind the line of scrimmage. While we’ll never argue with a team trying to get the ball into playmakers’ hands (particularly in PPR leagues), it would have been nice to see him stretch the field a little more often. Luckily, we saw far more work in the intermediate areas of the field in 2024, as 48.2% of his 112 targets came within nine yards, while his intermediate (10-19 yards) usage jumped from a pedestrian 15.4% to a far more palatable 33.0%.

Another welcome upgrade to his usage came on targets into the end zone, where he progressed from 12.5% of the team’s end zone targets to 20% last year. Although that admittedly didn’t reflect in his total touchdowns scored — dropping from six to four — it is nice to see him get more incorporated into high-value fantasy situations. The issue here is the Ravens’ out-sized usage of 2-TE sets that essentially box him out of high-ceiling touchdowns. But more on that later.

Flowers has seen a lot of success in Reception Perception’s charting through his first two years in the league, scoring at an above-average clip, regardless of what route he’s tasked with. His central sore spot has been in his “slant” success, where he’s finished at a nearly identical 72% and 72.%. One would think that his gains in all other areas of the field would equate to more separation in these quick over-the-middle strikes, but it seems to be an area to work on as we head into Year 3.

While his yards-after-catch ability saw him finish 17th in YAC/reception (ninth in YAC vs. zone) in ‘24, there is more that goes into a fantasy profile than simply what you can do when the ball is in your hands. And the Ravens’ offensive environment might be holding him back from being a true fantasy stud.

The Ravens’ Offense in 2025

With the league continuing to emphasize young play-calling head coach options, the Ravens have been gifted with another season out of offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the franchise and fans should be overjoyed. Baltimore has finished third and fourth in scoring under his watch, up from 19th and 17th in the previous two years, with Lamar Jackson nearly reeling in back-to-back MVP conquests.

The passing —and rushing, for that matter— offense has become incredibly efficient with Monken calling plays, finishing sixth (41.34) and first (146.61) in EPA gained on dropbacks in ‘23 and ‘24, despite finishing 27th (605) and 30th (541) in raw dropbacks during the regular season. Much of that obviously has to do with Jackson’s scrambling ability, but a high-powered rushing attack and two very capable tight ends have further pushed a great play-action game to the very top of the league, where the Ravens earned 10.7 adjusted yards per attempt on play-action passes last season.

We shouldn’t expect that to change any time soon, as the team is more than comfortable running most of their offense in 2-TE sets, while employing 3-WR sets at the league’s lowest rate (30%). And who can blame them? The more often you can keep the threat of Derrick Henry mowing over the defense, the better your chances of controlling the game. That is, when Henry isn’t finishing drives himself from any area of the field.

Suitable for the team, not fantastic for fantasy managers who are holding pieces of the passing attack.

Projecting the Ravens’ Pass-Catchers in Fantasy

Flowers easily led the Ravens in targets (112), receptions (74), and yards (1,059) for the second straight season. Though it was enough to place him in WR2 territory consistently, it also went hand-in-hand with games that saw him earn four or fewer targets, with eight such occurrences. That’s just the nature of this offense, and we can’t comfortably project that it will stop happening unless the team starts playing from behind at a high clip (their current o/u is 11.5 wins).

This makes the floor and ceiling combinations for all Ravens’ pass-catchers a little shaky, but there is still fantasy goodness to be had on a team projected to score the second-most points in the league behind only the Buffalo Bills. The main beneficiary of all these points over the last couple of years has been Mark Andrews. Despite a brutal ankle injury that kept him out of half of the 2023 season, he has found the end zone 17 times over his last 26 full games, including a huge six-game streak to round out the 2024 season.

Some regression could be on the way in that department, but those high-value targets could just as easily rotate to Isaiah Likely before they end up in the hands of a wide receiver. Over the past two seasons, Baltimore has had 61 targets coming from within the opponents’ 10-yard line, with 25 of those going to the tight end position. That 40.1% rate is the fifth-highest in the league.

This isn’t to say that Flowers couldn’t soak up a couple more scores (or simply score a touchdown from outside the 10-yard line) if there is any regression from the veteran tight end, but it doesn’t seem likely to be a source of extra fantasy production.

A better scenario is the continued high-level play from Rashod Bateman, who continues to clear out defenses, and a small mix of free agent addition DeAndre Hopkins, averting the eyes of defenders when the team does employ 3-WR sets. This may be a pessimistic view, but one of the best cases we can hope for is more of the same out of this offense, with Flowers potentially taking one more small step in slants/crosses that have given him some grief over his first two seasons.

This would make the third-year player an incredibly valuable WR3 with glimpses of a top-15 option in pass-heavy scenarios. Andrews and Likely are destined to eat into each other’s work once again, while Bateman and Hopkins are best ball options who will be incredibly frustrating for redraft managers. It’s not exactly what we’re hoping for from a potential league-leading offense, but that’s what you get when Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson are gouging defenses week in and week out.

Bottom Line

• Zay Flowers is locked into leading the Baltimore Ravens in most —if not all— statistical categories, but the raw dropbacks that turn into pass attempts will always be on the low-end due to the nature of this offense.
• While an increase in touchdown scoring for Flowers is certainly possible on a team projected to score the second-most points, he’s still going to be playing third-fiddle behind Derrick Henry and two receiving tight ends around the goal line.
• According to current Underdog ADP, Flowers is coming off boards as the WR31 in the middle of the fifth round. As always, your propensity to snag him there has a lot to do with roster construction to that point, but he profiles as a very viable WR3. Luckily, nearly everyone around him is rising in cost, and he will probably be going even later than that in home leagues. He will deliver duds from time to time, but that is overshadowed by his playmaking ability to log big crooked numbers at a discounted price.