Jayden Reed is your 2025 Fantasy League Winner
Jayden Reed is one of the most fascinating players in the NFL. On paper, he slots in as the WR1 in what should be a top-10 offense in the league this year. But, through two seasons, Reed has yet to prove that he can be a consistent fantasy option on a week-to-week basis. Here’s a look at whether Reed is worth drafting in fantasy at his current ADP of WR43 and 93rd overall.
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An Overview of Reed’s Career
After getting drafted with the 50th overall pick of the 2023 NFL Draft, Reed has put together a promising start to his career. In his rookie year, he led the Packers in all three major receiving categories, with 64 catches for 793 yards and 10 total touchdowns. He finished as the overall WR23 in fantasy. Reed was particularly valuable in fantasy down the stretch in his rookie year, matching a popular second-half breakout pattern among rookie receivers. From Weeks 9 to 17 of 2023, Reed was the WR10 in fantasy, averaging nearly 14 points per game. Reed maintained that production last season, once again leading the Packers in receptions (55) and receiving yards (857). However, he dipped to a WR26 finish in fantasy as he scored only seven touchdowns and caught less passes despite improving his yards per reception number.
On a per-route and per-snap basis, Reed has been one of the most efficient receivers in football. He ranked top-20 in yards per route run last season after ranking 22nd as a rookie, and led the league in passer rating when targeting in 2024. As a result, Reed offered week-winning upside, with two separate weeks inside the top-2 at the position. The issue, however, is that Reed played just 63% of possible snaps for the Packers last year, and was often taken off the field in two receiver sets. This severely limited Reed’s fantasy floor, as his lack of playing time led to several games where he scored less than five fantasy points. Reed has no doubt showcased his potential through his first two seasons, but will need to smooth out the rough edges in his game to be a more dependable contributor.
Reed in the Packers Offense
Reed enters the season as the favorite to lead the Packers in receiving once again. He will face some competition from newly drafted Matthew Golden, whom the Packers selected with their first-round pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. Golden’s arrival should be offset a bit by the lack of Christian Watson, who will be rehabbing a torn ACL injury to start the year. The concern, however, is that Golden and X-receiver Romeo Doubs dominate the snap share in two receiver sets, leaving Reed with another lower-usage season. I’m confident that Reed’s talent and production will stand out and he will earn more routes this season, but if Golden gets off to a hot start, it may spell danger.
As a whole, I expect the Packers offense to be more pass-heavy than they were last season. Due to quarterback Jordan Love battling various injuries throughout the year, the Packers shifted to being one of the premier running teams in the league with Josh Jacobs in town. They ranked dead-last by a wide margin in neutral down pass rate after being in the middle of the pack (19th) in 2023. As a result, Love averaged six fewer passing attempts per game compared to 2023, making the overall passing attack more efficient but less fantasy friendly. I highly doubt the Packers will lean on Jacobs that much this season with a fully healthy Love, which should allow Reed and Golden to each maintain fantasy-relevant production.
Assessing Reed’s Floor and Ceiling
Reed is far from a perfect fantasy asset this year, but it feels like a lot of the risk is being baked into his draft price already. Reed’s involvement in the Packers offense won’t be any lower than it has been the last two years, and he has still put together WR23 and WR26 finishes in that smaller role. So, I don’t really understand why he is going as low as the WR43, which feels a whole lot closer to his floor and his ceiling.
As for Reed’s ceiling, I genuinely believe he has the upside to finish top-10 at the position. The third-year breakout is a common trend among wide receivers, and nearly every season, someone with Reed’s profile goes up a level and wins you your fantasy league.
| Player | Year Drafted | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PPG | Snap % | Y/RR | PPG | Snap % | Y/RR | PPG | Snap % | Y/RR | ||
| Chris Godwin | 2017 | 4.7 | 41% | 2.03 | 9.7 | 64.30% | 1.87 | 16.7 | 92.30% | 2.24 |
| Calvin Ridley | 2018 | 10.9 | 60.80% | 1.77 | 12.7 | 76% | 1.69 | 15.8 | 78.10% | 2.44 |
| Deebo Samuel | 2019 | 10.7 | 71% | 2.06 | 9.2 | 62.20% | 2.26 | 18.8 | 80.30% | 2.93 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2019 | 9.8 | 65.30% | 1.61 | 11.9 | 70.80% | 1.78 | 13.8 | 90.60% | 1.83 |
| CeeDee Lamb | 2020 | 10.9 | 63.70% | 1.81 | 12.1 | 76.30% | 1.94 | 14.6 | 87.30% | 2.39 |
| Nico Collins | 2021 | 4.8 | 59.20% | 1.24 | 7.9 | 71.40% | 1.68 | 14.7 | 68.10% | 3.11 |
| Drake London | 2022 | 8.4 | 77.90% | 2.07 | 8.7 | 81.10% | 1.87 | 13.6 | 90.30% | 2.32 |
| Jayden Reed | 2023 | 11.6 | 56.10% | 1.95 | 10 | 63.20% | 2.20 | ? | ? | ? |
All seven of these year-3 breakout receivers finished in the top-10 at the position in their third year, and Reed's history aligns right with them. His talent and efficiency so far have been undeniable, and if he works his way into a bigger role, he could be the steal of the draft this year.
As you might expect, I’m aggressively targeting Reed at his current draft spot. Believe it or not, you can probably get Reed even lower than where our multi-site ADP tool has him. Reed’s ADP is propped up by his Underdog ADP of 78th overall, but in home leagues such as ESPN, Reed’s ADP is 124th overall behind guys like Keon Coleman and Ricky Pearsall. There is no reason not to take a flier on Reed in the 9th or 10th round of your fantasy draft, and he is one of the lowest drafted players who can realistically be the WR1 on a productive offense.
The Bottom Line
- Jayden Reed has had a promising start to his NFL career and is one of the most efficient route runners in the league, but has not fully reached his potential due to a lack of consistent volume and usage.
- Reed should once again be the top receiver in the Packers offense, but may face some target competition from first-round pick Matthew Golden.
- Reed is being drafted far closer to his floor than his ceiling at his current ADP of WR43. He should comfortably be a top-40 receiver even in his worst outcome, and has legitimate top-10 upside if he puts it all together. He is one of my favorite targets in drafts this year.
