Forecasting 2023 NFL Rookie RB Success: 3-Year Model

May 26, 2023
Forecasting 2023 NFL Rookie RB Success: 3-Year Model

The 2023 NFL Draft is now in the books, giving us dozens of new offensive players to consider for our fantasy teams. In this article, I will discuss some of the value picks available at running backs in rookie drafts.

Our friends over at Dynasty League Football (DLF) have already compiled some post-draft rookie ADP, and, as expected, Bijan Robinson is not only the top running back off the board but also the top pick overall. Robinson scores incredibly well in all of my models and looks like a future star, so I have to agree that he is the top prospect in this draft.

More Rookie Success Models: WR | LB

Below, we will look at some of the running backs you can get later in the draft that still have a reasonable chance to turn into productive assets for your dynasty team.

Forecasting Running Back Success

As in the past four seasons, I estimate the odds of each player putting up a top-24 season within the first three years of their career by using a combination of three analytical models. The first is a standard statistical model (built using logistic regression), the second is a more sophisticated machine learning model and the third is a newer statistical model that projects using different criteria depending on each player's categorization as a passing, big, or lighter running back. The odds reported below take an average of the individual predictions of the three models.

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