Browns vs Commanders: Best Bets for Their Week 17 Showdown

The Washington Commanders will host the Cleveland Browns at 1:00 p.m. EST at FedEx Field to kick off a massive Sunday slate here in Week 17. The Commanders are 7-7-1 and are on the outside looking in with their playoff hopes, while the Browns have gone 6-9 in their first season in the Deshaun Watson era and can only operate as a playoff spoiler at this point. Both teams have been on middling streaks lately, with the Browns winning three of their last five and the Commanders winning two of their last five, with one tie against the Giants in Week 13.

Browns @ Commanders Betting Odds

Browns @ Commanders Best Bets

Browns +2.5 (-115, Draftkings)

While almost every other book has the spread set at 1.5, with some straying up to 2.0, Draftkings is gifting the state of Ohio a nice 2.5 for its launch day. There’s no denying that the Deshaun Watson return has been riddled with disappointment; the quarterback change in Washington should give us all the ammo we need to evaluate how things are going on that side of the sideline. Though the Commanders’ pass rush is one of the more ferocious in the league, the return of Chase Young is unlikely to do much to help their run defense, which has been quickly declining as the year goes along. Over their last four games, they rank 25th in rushing yards allowed, 25th in rushing EPA per play, and 28th in explosive rush%.

That doesn’t bode well against a Cleveland Browns offense predicated on controlling the line of scrimmage in the run game and putting the ball in the gut of one of the best running backs in the game. Even if Nick Chubb doesn’t run away with the game, there is always the chance that Watson breaks out of his funk and shows us what made the Browns give up so much for him in the first place.

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Commanders WR Curtis Samuel o31.5 (-120, BetMGM)

This number has been sneaking up a bit over the week, but not enough to get us off the play. Curtis Samuel has benefitted from the quarterback change from Taylor Heinicke back to Carson Wentz, as he had five targets in Week 16, three of which came on Wentz’s 16 attempts when he was inserted in the fourth quarter. That target share is right in line with the 22.2% mark that Samuel had through the first six games with Wentz at the helm when the RB/WR hybrid averaged 8.5 targets a game, 5.7 receptions per game, and 47.8 receiving yards.

The Commanders may take a run-heavy approach against a weak rush defense in today's game, but that should affect players like Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson more than Samuel, who will benefit more from Wentz’s low-aDOT, dink, and dunk stylings.

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