SharpClarke's Week 14 Betting Recap: Kirk Cousins Impresses in a Loss

Outside of more significant injuries, Week 14 was another fun week and another week validating my process. Teams I have been below-market on all year (Giants and Vikings) as well as a quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) stumbled while two of my season-long darlings (Jaguars and 49ers) impressed. But the relentless work of handicapping is not about validating prior beliefs. It's about constantly reacting to new evidence we see on the field. Sometimes teams evolve. Sometimes prior beliefs were wrong. In this case, while I was happy to see the Lions beat the Vikings for my big bet on the Lions, I think some aspects of that game make me slightly more optimistic about the Vikings and skeptical of the Lions. Let's dive in.

Week 15 Betting Tracker

DET 34, MIN 23

Effectiveness Ratings

DET: 6.05
MIN: 6.10

Effective Result: MIN by 0.6

Despite the final margin of 11 points, this was a virtually even game by effectiveness. And although my metric does not use stats, the stats back it up. Both teams gained 23 first downs and averaged 6.7 yards per play. But the Vikings lost the game due primarily to two plays. First, near the end of the first half, the Vikings were driving deep into Lions' territory when Dalvin Cook coughed up the football. Running back fumbles are not a predictive stat, and this one happened on 1st-and-goal from the 3-yard line. That took at least three points, but more likely seven points off the board. Second, the Vikings looked to have stopped the Lions on their opening drive in the second half when they converted a fake punt on 4th-and-8 in their own territory. This led to a touchdown and a two-score lead. Again, converting fake punts with eight yards to go is not a predictive outcome.

Instead of looking at this game as a big Lions win, it's more helpful to view it as an even match. But the Lions had several advantages here. They were playing at home, where they have been much more successful on the season. Jared Goff has typically performed at a much higher level indoors, at home, than he has in the elements. That could play a role down the stretch, as the Lions play three of their final four games on the road, including in New York and Green Bay. The Lions also capitalized against a banged-up secondary, including on a long touchdown to Jameson Williams when the Vikings completely blew a coverage. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the Vikings were playing without two starting offensive linemen in Garrett Bradbury and Christian Darrisaw. Both of these players were questionable coming into the game, so they should return soon.

The weakness on the Vikings' offensive line had obvious results. The Vikings averaged just 1.3 yards per carry on 17 carries, and Kirk Cousins was sacked four times. The Lions' defense has been playing somewhat better than it was earlier in the season, but it still is not an elite unit by any stretch. The fact that Cousins overcame this offensive line deficiency to throw for over 400 yards actually impressed me. Justin Jefferson once again demonstrated that he is the best receiver in the NFL, hitting his prime. He was consistently open and caught everything that went his way. T.J. Hockenson also provided another option for Cousins, and outside of a back-breaking drop on third down, demonstrating he will play a key role in improving this offense. Once the Vikings get their offensive line back in good health, they should improve over this performance.

Given all the context for this game, I would counter the narrative that this one proves the Lions are better than the Vikings. They should more accurately be viewed as somewhat equal, with a slight edge to the Vikings when healthy.

Week 14 Betting Recap

Week 14 was another good week for my bets, although both prime-time games really ate into my profits. Thanks to losses on Sunday and Monday night, I finished 6-5 for +1.57 units. But I once again am encouraged by the process, because my bet on the Cardinals relied on the handicap of Kyler Murray against the Patriots' defense. When he got hurt just three plays in, that all went downhill. I will take the loss on the scoresheet but I am more focused on the long-term process and didn't learn too much from a game where Colt McCoy couldn't deliver. The Patriots matched up perfectly against his more in-pocket style.

My biggest miss of the week was once again with the Eagles. I bet the Under in Eagles-Giants and they ended up scoring a combined 70 points, good for the most in the NFL. It's important to recognize that an offense like the Eagles has to compound benefits against bad defenses. Because they rely on winning the offensive line battle and have the skill players to consistently capitalize (and a low-risk approach that reduces turnovers), when they do win, they typically cannot be stopped. Betting under on games where one team projects to consistently get in the end zone is a bad idea.

Outside of that, this was an encouraging week. My only spread loss outside of the Murray injury came with the Bills laying 9.5 against the Jets. The Jets impressed me, and I do think the Jets were the right side. But the Bills were in a position to cover that game when they turned into a shell offense to protect the ball, giving up a safety to make it an 11-point game, inviting the Jets to kick a field goal late instead of pushing for the touchdown. All you can do as a bettor is put yourself in a position to win bets and let variance run its course.

With winning weeks in five of the last six weeks, I'm looking to continue to finish strong with my Week 15 picks.

For all my bets and analysis, you can join the 4for4 Discord via a 4for4 betting subscription (10% off with code SharpClarke) and follow @SharpClarkeNFL on Twitter for alerts. This sheet from Dan Rivera tracks all my betting picks (and those from the rest of the betting staff) on the year. Just click on the tab with my name on it for the results.