Player Draft Special Props: Betting on the Top 10 Picks

Apr 13, 2020
Player Draft Special Props: Betting on the Top 10 Picks

The top 10 picks in the NFL Draft are always the most exciting and at Draftkings Sportsbook you can bet on if a player is selected in the top 10. This will discuss where the best value lies among those options

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Potential Top 10 Picks

Every year there are a few surprise players that go in the top 10 and this year is likely to be no different. There are six players I considered locked into round one: Joe Burrow, Chase Young, Jefferey Okudah, Tua Tagavolia, Isaiah Simmons, and Tristan Wirfs, with Mekhi Becton a near lock. This leaves three top 10 spots, at least one of which is likely going to surprise people. There are two players I think have a chance to be that guy: Florida cornerback C.J. Henderson and LSU Edge K’Lavon Chaisson.

Player Odds
Tristan Wirfs -500
Mekhi Becton -400
Jedrick Wills -335
Derrick Brown -200
Andrew Thomas +110
Javon Kinlaw +200
Jerry Jeudy +250
Jordan Love +250
CeeDee Lamb +300
C.J. Henderson +700
K'Lavon Chaisson +800
Kenneth Murray +1600

C.J. Henderson +700

Henderson’s over/under line is currently set at 16.5 and he is most commonly mocked to two teams—the Falcons at pick 16 and the Cowboys at pick 17. Henderson is locked in behind the draft’s number one corner in Jeffrey Okudah and ahead of the next tier of corners in Kristian Fulton, Trevon Diggs, Jeff Glandey and A.J. Terrell. While Okudah is -10,000 (a lock) to be the first corner, Henderson is -400 to be the second corner off the board. At 6’1” 204lbs, he ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at the NFL combine and has the size-speed profile that teams covet at the cornerback position.

The Carolina Panthers and Jacksonville Jaguars have both already lost their top corners this offseason and have massive holes in their secondary. Henderson will be competing with offensive tackles and defensive tackles to go this high, as the receiver run isn’t likely to start until pick 11. One of his biggest competitions is defensive tackle Derrick Brown who is -200 to go in Round 1 but has a fifth-percentile athletic profile, the type of profile that simply doesn’t go in the top 10. Henderson’s tape, athletic profile, team needs, and premium position gives him a legit shot to shock people and go top 10.

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K’Lavon Chaisson +800

Chaisson has had interesting line movements. While juice has gone towards the over on his draft prop line of 16.5, his odds to go top 10 have dropped from +1000 to +800. Chaisson is most commonly mocked as interchangeable with C.J. Henderson at picks 16 and 17. While I am betting the under on 16.5 I am also sprinkling in 0.2 units that he goes top 10 as well. Chaisson is the number two edge in this class and teams pay up for pass rushers. In the last five classes, at least two edge rushers went in the top 16, averaging three edge rushers in the first 16 picks and the second edge coming off the board by the seventh pick. With history saying two pass rushers go top 10, I am willing to bet Chaisson is the second at these odds.

Bets to Avoid

While Chaisson and Henderson are my favorite long shots, there is not much other value on the board for top 10 picks. Wirfs is -500, and betting his under 8.5 at -121 makes so much more sense. Becton is -400 and Wills is -335, but with both having 8.5 o/u with plus money on the under it doesn’t make sense to lay those odds. Brown is -200, but his o/u is 9.5 and if he goes top 10 it will be in the 7-9 range, so it doesn't make sense laying worse odds to grab one extra spot in 10, where the Browns won’t be taking him. All plus money players are properly lined and offer little value, with Henderson and Chaisson the only long shots with a realistic chance of going top 10.

Pick Summary

Prop Odds Suggested Units Limit (bet down to)
C.J. Henderson Top 10 Pick +700 0.2 +650 Bet Now
K'Lavon Chassion Top 10 Pick +800 0.2 +700 Bet Now

Note: All advice in this article is based on odds available on the date of publishing.

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