11 ADP Risers and Fallers at the Start of September
As we near the end of draft season, analyzing BB10 ADP from week-to-week is helpful to gather an overall impression of when players are leaving draft boards. Drafters of BB10 best-ball leagues tend to be sharper than your average fantasy football participant, so you may find players will slip a bit further in some leagues than others.
In other words, ADP data is very useful but is not everything, so don’t ride or die with it.
In the last piece in this series, I’ll take a look at some of the biggest risers and fallers over the past week, comparing their ADP from last week to the week before, and assess how you should approach those players moving forward. A player’s ADP can change for a plethora of reasons and diving into the cause of that movement can certainly help come draft time.
Note: The number in parenthesis represents their overall +/- ADP jump and positional ADP jump.
Ryquell Armstead - RB, Jaguars (+22.3 ADP, +11 POS ADP)
Chris Thompson - RB, Jaguars (+19.9 ADP, + 9 POS ADP)
Devine Ozigbo - RB, Jaguars (+17.6 ADP, +8 POS ADP)
Unless you’ve been in a completely tech-free quarantine zone over the past week, you probably can figure out that the release of Leonard Fournette was the catalyst for all three of the top ADP jumpers this week. However, it appears that drafters may have jumped the gun on Ryquell Armstead, as he’s back on the reserve/COVID-19 list after spending 18 days there earlier this summer.
Even when he’s healthy and back on the field, signs point to a backup role behind both Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson with Chris Thompson handling most of the passing down work. Armstead’s late-15th round ADP isn’t too high, but I’d personally rather have someone with more guaranteed volume in that draft space like Boston Scott, Chase Edmonds or even Duke Johnson.
Chris Thompson is still a great value in Round 16, especially in full-PPR formats as he’s reunited with Jay Gruden who loved to use him in his offense in Washington. Health is something that has scared people away from Thompson but he’s worth the late-round risk in this sparse backfield.
It’s next man up for Devine Ozigbo, a sophomore who had nine rushes for 27 yards, along with three receptions for 23 yards in 2019. Ozigbo rose from RB72 to RB64 last week and is being drafted in the 19th round in BB10 leagues. He’s worth that late-round stab and could easily be sent back to the waiver wire in redraft leagues if he doesn’t pan out.
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