DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 9

Oct 31, 2019
DFS Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 9

Leveraging ownership percentages is a crucial aspect of creating tournament lineups. In this article, I use the 4for4 metric GPP Leverage Scores to highlight players whose projected ownership is either too high or too low. You can get a complete explanation of how the metric works here, but in short, the leverage score takes projected ownership and compares it to an implied ownership. The projected ownership is the prediction of what percentage of lineups a particular player will be owned in. A player’s implied ownership is 4for4’s recommended ownership based on salary, point projection and positional scarcity, among other factors. Comparing the two ownership percentages can highlight players who 4for4 projections are higher or lower on relative to the field. Note that every position may not be included in each section.

Players to Be Overweight On

QB Aaron Rodgers ($8,100 FD/$6,900 DK) @ Chargers

The total on this game has steadily moved up but the Packers have held as three-point favorites. As it stands, their implied point total is at 25, a relatively high number in a week where only one team is projected to hit 28 points. Fantasy numbers point to the Chargers defense being a run funnel but the numbers are someone misleading. On a per-attempt basis, only eight teams have allowed more fantasy points to opposing passers and Aaron Rodgers currently ranks in the top five in fantasy points per attempt. If Davante Adams is unable to go, the lack of a clear stacking option should keep Rodgers’s ownership in check. Should Adams play, it only increases the upside of the entire offense. Rodgers could serve as leverage against Aaron Jones, who will likely be one of the most popular players on the slate or you could use the passing game to offset Jones’s ownership in team stacks.

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