Sunday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Packers at Chiefs

Oct 26, 2019
Sunday Night DFS Single-Game Breakdown: Packers at Chiefs

The Kansas City Chiefs will be without superstar QB Patrick Mahomes this week, but they still look to emerge victorious at home against the 6-1 Green Bay Packers. Can Matt Moore lead the Chiefs to the unexpected win, or will Aaron Rodgers continue where he left off last week when he broke the slate with a 40+ fantasy point performance?

Let's break down the game and how we can find the edge that might get us at the top of the leaderboards.

Injuries

The big news here is, of course, that of Mahomes, who looks like he will recover quickly, but not in time for this week's game. This means Matt Moore will get the start and takes the Chiefs from being home favorites to slight underdogs against the visiting Packers. Green Bay looks as if it will miss Davante Adams at least one more week as he has not taken part in practice yet this week. Everyone else appears good to go.

Evaluation of Vegas Spread and Total

Green Bay -3.5 Over/Under 47.5

Vegas has this about right. I expect the Chiefs to keep this close and I wouldn't be surprised at all if they won as Andy Reid is very good at game planning and letting his backup QB play to his strengths. I expect the game to be close and relatively high scoring and the likely outcomes will reflect that. I do think there are a few scenarios where the Packers blow the game open (if Moore struggles).

  • Close, low-scoring game (<40 points) - 10%
  • Close, average-scoring game (40-49 points) - 35%
  • Close, high-scoring game (50+ points) - 35%
  • Blowout for the home team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, average-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the home team, high-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, low-scoring game - 0%
  • Blowout for the away team, average-scoring game - 10%
  • Blowout for the away team, high-scoring game - 10%
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