The Top DFS Contrarian Stacks: Week 4

Sep 26, 2019
The Top DFS Contrarian Stacks: Week 4

When laying out Week 4 NFL DFS contrarian stacks, I’ll be using a combination of our Stack Value Reports and GPP Leverage Scores to find unique stacks that can take down a tournament. I encourage you to read the series on how to win a GPP in the DFS Strategy Hub. You’ll quickly realize that taking down a tournament requires a balance of players ranging from low-owned to chalky.

I like building contrarian stacks around my chalkier core of players because you only have to get one instance correct for it to hit. For example, if we hit on a contrarian quarterback play while having a pass-catcher or two from that same game, the positive correlation of those stacks is technically getting one contrarian play correct despite filling multiple roster slots. I feel this is easier than having a chalkier stack while trying to hit multiple individual low-owned plays throughout the rest of your lineup. Keep in mind that these are contrarian stacks, so you don’t have to use these stacks in a large percentage of lineups to be overweight on the field.

QB/WR1/WR2/Opp RB1 Stack

QB Deshaun Watson ($6,400 DK/$8,200 FD)

WR DeAndre Hopkins ($7.700 DK/$8,700 FD)

WR Will Fuller ($4,500 DK/$5,900 FD)

RB Christian McCaffrey ($8,800 DK/$9,000 FD)

One way to get exposure to players that may be somewhat popular is to game stack with another player or players that may not be. That's the case with this Panthers/Texans game. Christian McCaffrey will most likely be one of the top-owned running backs on the slate. I like creating unique lineups around him by stacking him with his opponents. We all know the damage McCaffrey is capable of—we've seen it for two seasons now. He has played all but four snaps through three weeks, garnering a massive touch share. Kylen Allen looks like he will not be much of a step down from Cam Newton, or at least defenses won't be able to key on the run game because of Allen. As for the Texans, I don't think their ownership this week will be quite as high as it should be. There are much more enticing options in each player's salary range.

Russell Wilson should eat into Watson's ownership, Keenan Allen into Hopkins's, and Will Fuller is going overlooked as well. Hopkins has struggled a bit seeing nine targets per game, but we know matchups don't necessarily matter when it comes to Nuk. Will Fuller has seen almost seven targets per game, but hasn't been able to shake loose for a touchdown yet this season. He currently has played on over 90% of snaps and has a 32% share of the Texans air yards, despite only seeing 18% of their targets. His price has dipped considerably. There aren't many wide receivers walking around at $4,500 that have the potential for 100+ yards and two touchdowns like Fuller does. Kenny Stills could also be considered here as he possesses a high leverage score and has the same deep threat ability as Fuller. I prefer Fuller in this situation due to his snap share advantage over Stills.

QB/WR1/Opp TE1 Stack

QB Matt Ryan ($5,900 DK/$7,900 FD)

WR Julio Jones ($7,700 DK/$8,500 FD)

TE Delanie Walker ($4,800 DK/$5,700 FD)

Matt Ryan has sneakily turned in three straight 300-yard performances. In those three games, he has averaged 41 attempts and multiple touchdowns in every game, with two of those being road games. Devonta Freeman and the Falcons' run game has been largely ineffective, so they've turned to Ryan to move the chains and he's answered the bell. Ryan is another quarterback in that middle tier that will get eaten up by Russell Wilson and potentially Philip Rivers facing the Dolphins. In the lineups that roster Matt Ryan, you can bet Julio Jones will be rostered also. Jones has smashed in 2019 thanks to a 35% market share of air yards and a 25% share of targets. One of the main reasons I like Julio as a tournament pivot from Keenan Allen is his individual matchup this week.

At least for a portion of the game, Julio should see Adoree Jackson, a bottom-five cornerback in fantasy points allowed to the wide receiver position according to Sports Info Solutions. To make this stack a bit unique I like adding Delanie Walker. With Evan Engram, Darren Waller, and Greg Olsen all within $1,000 or less of Walker, he'll be a neglected option at the tight end position. Walker tends to compile his stats in chunks as we saw in Week 1 when he scored two touchdowns. The Falcons rate out 21st in aFPA to tight ends. Walker has commanded 23% of the Titans targets and 25% of their air yards. With Walker basically being the lead receiver for the Titans, if this game ends up going over it's 45-point total Jones and Walker are the pairing that has the best chance for monster fantasy outputs.

QB/RB1/WR 1 Stack

QB Lamar Jackson ($6,900 DK/$8,300 FD)

RB Mark Ingram ($6,600 DK/$7,800 FD)

WR Marquise Brown ($5,800 DK/$5,700 FD)

It's amazing what a down week can do for the buzz around a player or team. The Ravens' passing game struggled a bit in Kansas City in Week 3. Lamar Jackson didn't throw for a touchdown and Hollywood Brown only caught two of his nine targets. This is a spot we can circle back and fire up the Ravens for Week 4 in a matchup with the Browns that has a Vegas implied final score of 26-19 Ravens. Jackson turned in a 21 fantasy point performance, despite not throwing for a touchdown, that tells you how high his floor is due to his rushing ability. It also highlights how massive his ceiling can be, because when the passing game is clicking he's destined for 30+ point fantasy performances. The Browns' defense has looked suspect through three weeks, ranking 27th in aFPA to quarterbacks and 26th to wide receivers.

The Jackson-to-Brown connection has been one of the most concentrated of any duo in the league in terms of air yards. Brown has accounted for 41% of the Ravens' air yards. In Week 3, they couldn't get on the same page and many of those deep shots fell incomplete, however, Brown still has averaged nine targets. His snap percentage has increased from 18% in Week 1 to 74% in Week 3 as well. If we add Mark Ingram into the mix we can account for all of the Ravens touchdowns. I personally expect the Ravens to be able to have their way on offense at home against the Browns. With Lamar connecting on deep shots to Brown, then running the read option and opening up cutback lanes for Ingram, capturing all the touchdown equity in this game will be a unique stack. Based on our ownership projections, the combined ownership of this stack does not reflect it's potential.

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