FantasyDraft Week 12 Value Plays
Each week, I offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two FLEX positions.
Matt Ryan ($12,300) vs. Buccaneers
This may represent the most likely yardage bonus that there has been all season—Matt Ryan’s seven 300-yard games are tied for the lead league while no team has allowed more 300-yard passing games than the Buccaneers. When adjusted for strength of schedule, Tampa Bay ranks last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and Ryan is reasonably priced as this week’s QB4. The Falcons’ 27.5 projected point total is the third-highest on the slate and 20 of their 24 offensive touchdowns this season have come through the air.
Jeff Driskel ($10,500) @ Redskins
After getting torched by Sam Darnold for 25.4 FantasyDraft points last week, the Redskins now rank 22nd in schedule-adjusted points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Driskel offers some much-needed salary relief in a week where punt plays at other positions have no floor. The Lions backup signal-caller has averaged 44 rushing yards in two starts so he’s offering a passing touchdown worth of fantasy points as a head start. Six teams have exceeded their implied point total this season against the Redskins so Driskel may have more scoring upside than the Lions’ 21.5-point projection suggests.
Alvin Kamara ($15,900) vs. Panthers
Christian McCaffrey’s price is at a point where it’s almost impossible to comfortably roster him, making Kamara this week’s top running back value by a wide margin. After being eased back into action coming off of the bye, Kamara touched the ball 23 times last week, accounting for over 40% of the Saints’ touches. This week, he will face one of the best running back funnels in the league, a Panthers defense that ranks fifth against quarterbacks but 23rd against running backs. New Orleans is projected for a league-high 28.5 points and they are favored by 10 at home.
Derrick Henry ($12,900) vs. Jaguars
Henry’s lack of usage in the passing game is usually a concern, especially on full-PPR sites, but his RB10 price tag is egregiously low for a workhorse in this spot. Over the past month, only five players have accounted for a higher percentage of team touches than Henry and Tennessee is a home favorite against a Jaguars defense ranked 25th in running back aFPA. Henry is a top-two value at his position this week.
Julio Jones ($15,000) vs. Buccaneers
A run through the Lineup Generator shows a heavy slant towards paying up for pass-catchers, including jamming in Michael Thomas. While it’s possible to fit Thomas, it takes some low-upside punt plays. Julio Jones is a much more manageable play. He is one of four players who has seen at least a quarter of his team’s targets in every game since Week 6 and his 61-target streak without a score screams touchdown regression. Tampa ranks last in wide receiver aFPA and Julio will draw the best matchup on the field against Sean Murphy-Bunting.
D.J. Chark ($12,500) @ Titans
Over the past month, Chark ranks fifth in target share and the switch to Nick Foles at quarterback was of little consequence, as he targeted Chark on a third of his passes in Week 11. That volume hasn’t resulted in the salary spike one might expect as Chark is still barely priced as a WR1 against a mediocre Titans pass defense. Both of Tennessee’s perimeter corners rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per target allowed.
Vance McDonald ($6,200) @ Bengals
McDonald has quietly seen seven targets in three straight games. With JuJu Smith-Schuster and James Conner likely to sit on Sunday, that trend should continue for McDonald. In a week where most of the biggest names at the position are not on the main slate, it’s a great spot to punt the position. Priced outside the top-20 tight ends, McDonald registers as a top-five value at his position. Owners trying to get to CMC or Michael Thomas will be forced to roster a player like this.
As mentioned, the top talent at tight end is missing from the main slate, making Ertz the preferred pay-up option. No tight end is averaging more targets per game than Ertz and over the last month, he ranks in the top 10 across all positions in target share. Philadelphia is a home favorite against a Seahawks defense ranked in the bottom 10 in aFPA to tight ends. This becomes an especially great play if Alshon Jeffery is out again.
Defense and Special Teams
Pittsburgh is favored by a touchdown against a Bengals team ranked 28th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing defenses. Cincinnati has thrown at a top-three rate in neutral game script over the last six weeks and the Steelers come into Week 12 with the second-highest adjusted sack rate in the league. If Pittsburgh can get up big and force the Bengals to throw even more than usual, they could make it an especially long day for Ryan Finley and Co.
With so few pay-down options available at skill positions this week, paying down at defense is a good option to get up to some stud players. The Lions have struggled on defense but Washington has been equally bad on offense. Only three offensive lines have allowed a higher adjusted sack rate and Dwayne Haskins enters the game with the highest interception rate in the league.