FantasyDraft Week 10 Value Plays
Each week, I offer my favorite plays for the Sunday slate on FantasyDraft. 4for4’s Lineup Generator allows users to quickly pinpoint the top values at each position and I will expand on how each player is best deployed, whether it’s by game type, as part of a stack or simply a core value across all formats. Note that FantasyDraft is a full-PPR site with yardage bonuses but the roster requires only two wide receivers and implements two FLEX positions.
Lamar Jackson ($13,500) @ Bengals
Jackson has been the model of consistency this year as one of two quarterbacks to score at least 14 FantasyDraft points in every game. His constant floor can be attributed to his rushing ability, averaging 80 yards per game on the ground including three games where he’s hit the rushing bonus. While he hasn’t had a game with over 200 yards and multiple passing touchdowns since Week 4, that could change this week against a Bengals defense ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to quarterbacks. Baltimore’s 27.5-point implied total is the third-highest on the main slate and they are favored by 10.5.
Dak Prescott ($11,200) vs. Vikings
Prescott has been one of the most efficient fantasy quarterbacks to date, averaging the fifth-most points per pass attempt in the league, but he is severely underpriced as the QB12 on the main slate. Minnesota has a non-prohibitive defense, ranked 14th in quarterback aFPA. Dallas is a home favorite and they have a relatively high 25.5-point projected total. With two of the higher-volume running backs matching up in this game and Amari Cooper playing at less than 100%, Dak could serve as a low-owned Sunday night hammer.
Christian McCaffrey ($19,200) @ Packers
As much as sites try to price McCaffrey up, he remains the top value at his position. With over 55% of the Panthers’ touches this season, his floor is unmatched and no player has as high of a ceiling. This week is his best matchup of the season, favored against a Packers defense ranked 26th in aFPA to running backs. McCaffrey has only faced one other team ranked in the bottom 10 against running backs and he laid a 50-burger on Jacksonville that week. The fact Green Bay ranks in the top 10 against quarterback and receivers suggest a high probability of CMC hitting the rushing bonus this week.
David Montgomery ($10,900) vs. Lions
If you are going to pay up for McCaffrey, you are going to have to save elsewhere and Montgomery’s RB16 price tag is the perfect place to start. The Bears running back has seen at least 75% of Chicago’s backfield touches in consecutive weeks and he’s turned both of those opportunities into games of at least 22 FantasyDraft points. This week, the Bears are home favorites against a Lions defense that has allowed the third-most 100-yard games to opposing running backs.
Michael Thomas ($15,700) vs. Falcons
New Orleans gets their turn at one of the worst secondaries in the league and Thomas should be the major beneficiary. Thomas will mostly be covered by Isaiah Oliver, who is allowing the ninth-most fantasy points per target among Week 10 starting corners. No player averages more targets per game or has seen a higher target share than Thomas and he’s the only receiver with double-digit FantasyDraft points in every game this season. It’s an added bonus to have Drew Brees back as two of Thomas’s three best fantasy games this year have come in Brees’s two full games.
Michael Gallup ($9,900) vs. Vikings
With Amari Cooper banged up, Gallup projects as the seventh-best value at his position against a Vikings secondary ranked 24th in aFPA to wide receivers. Xavier Rhodes mostly stays on one side of the field so Gallup should spend most of the day facing Rhodes, who ranks in the bottom 15 in fantasy points per target allowed.
Travis Kelce ($11,500) @ Titans
Kelce is by far the most expensive tight end on the slate but he’s worth paying for when you consider that his salary is the lowest it’s been all season in the week he gets Patrick Mahomes back. Kansas City’s projected total has moved up to 27 and they face a Titans defense ranked 23rd in tight end aFPA. As one of two players with double-digit red-zone targets and no scores inside the 20, Kelce has some positive touchdown regression coming his way.
Greg Olsen ($6,500) @ Packers
With Evan Engram out this week, you can make the argument that Kelce and Austin Hooper are the only reliable tight end options on the main slate, especially after Mark Andrews was only targeted three times last week. If you aren’t going to pay for Kelce, it makes sense to save at the position and Olsen is one of five tight ends on this slate averaging at least 5.5 targets per game. The Packers rank in the bottom 10 against tight ends and I like this game as a sneaky one to stack.
Defense and Special Teams
Jets ($4,400) vs. Giants
The Jets are small underdogs but these games with two awful teams on both sides of the ball have some of the widest ranges of outcomes you’ll find. In those cases, it makes sense to save money at the most volatile position in fantasy, especially since the Jets have a decent front seven. The Giants allow a bottom-10 adjusted sack rate and rank 30th in schedule-adjusted points allowed to opposing defenses.
Colts ($6,800) vs. Dolphins
Indianapolis is favored by 10.5 points and face the most generous team in the league to opposing fantasy defenses. Miami ranks in the bottom three in adjusted sack rate allowed and only two quarterbacks have a higher interception rate than Ryan Fitzpatrick this season.