Miles Sanders and 18 other Post-NFL Draft ADP Risers & Fallers

May 20, 2019
Miles Sanders and 18 other Post-NFL Draft ADP Risers & Fallers

With the NFL Draft now a few weeks behind us, we can take a look at how best-ball owners are reacting to the 2018 class and the implications of new depth charts. Comparing BestBall10 ADP from two weeks before the draft to ADP since the Draft, I will highlight some of the most notable swings in recent pricing.

Note: There has been little notable movement at the quarterback or tight end positions.

Wide Receiver Risers

These wide receivers have seen the biggest spike in price since the NFL Draft:

Post-NFL Draft WR ADP Risers
Player Team Pre-Draft ADP Post-Draft ADP ADP Diff. Pre-Draft Positional ADP Post-Draft Posisitional ADP Pos. ADP Diff.
Parris Campbell IND 201.2 157.8 43.4 76 60 16
Mecole Hardman KC 169.4 131.2 38.2 66 52 14
Deebo Samuel SF 204.1 172.4 31.7 78 68 10
N'Keal Harry NE 134.6 104.3 30.3 52 43 9
DK Metcalf SEA 127.5 113.3 14.2 50 48 2

Parris Campbell, Colts

Parris Campbell will start his career in one of the most fantasy-friendly passing games in the league and the rookie will have a chance to start immediately as the primary slot receiver. Campbell may be able to leapfrog Devin Funchess on the target totem pole but T.Y. Hilton, Eric Ebron and Jack Doyle will make it tough for the rookie to have a very consistent role in year one.

Mecole Hardman, Chiefs

WIth Tyreek Hill’s playing status for this season and beyond very much in jeopardy, Kansas City took to the early rounds of the draft to target a player with a similar skillset to Hill. Hardman wasn’t overly productive as a wide receiver in college but he can be used all over the field in arguably the best offense in the league. Hardman surely won’t replicate Hill’s absurd production but he is a weekly boom candidate and valuable best-ball asset with Patrick Mahomes under center.

Deebo Samuel, 49ers

Only one team offered their wide receivers a lower target share than San Francisco last year and they looked to rectify that issue by drafting two receivers in the first three rounds. While Deebo Samuel was taken before Jalen Hurd, Kevin Zatloukal’s rookie wide receiver success model. actually likes Hurd more. Although Zatloukal’s model considers a three-year window if you are targeting either 49ers rookie, going with the cheaper option in Hurd may be the savvy move.

N'Keal Harry, Patriots

Bill Belichick doesn't have the best track record when it comes to drafting wide receivers, but N’Keal Harry steps into a situation where he can be the Gronk replacement. Add in the departure of Chris Hogan and Josh Gordon’s suspension, and New England has over 14 vacated targets per game. Harry will certainly have the opportunity to be one of the rare rookie receivers that is fantasy relevant and he’s still cheap enough to risk finding out for yourself.

DK Metcalf, Seahawks

With Doug Baldwin’s release earlier this month, DK Metcalf landed on a team where he can be the primary outside receiver, with Tyler Lockett expected to slide into the primary slot role that was manned by Baldwin. A physical freak, there are some questions about Metcalf’s ability as a receiver and he is joining an offense that ran the ball at the highest rate in neutral game script last season.

Wide Receiver Fallers

These wide receivers have seen the biggest ADP drop since the NFL Draft:

Post-NFL Draft WR ADP Fallers
Player Team Pre-Draft ADP Post-Draft ADP ADP Diff. Pre-Draft Positional ADP Post-Draft Posisitional ADP Pos. ADP Diff.
Tyreek Hill KC 30.6 54.6 -24.0 13 22 -9
Nelson Agholor PHI 175.8 199.1 -23.3 70 74 -4
A.J. Brown TEN 158.8 180.8 -22.0 62 72 -10
Antonio Callaway CLE 191.1 207.5 -16.4 73 82 -9
Marquise Goodwin SF 160.4 176.3 -15.9 63 70 -7
Adam Humphries TEN 149.5 160.8 -11.3 57 61 -4

Tyreek Hill, Chiefs

It was already unclear whether or not Tyreek would play football in 2019 and when the Chiefs drafted Mecole Hardman, it became clear that they are at least preparing to not have Hill’s services. While nothing is official, Hill is still commanding a starter-level draft pick for a player that might see exactly zero snaps this year.

Nelson Agholor, Eagles

Agholor was already going to have a tough time being a consistent fantasy contributor in an offense that had the lowest wide receiver target share in the league last year. After Philadelphia drafted JJ Arcega-Whiteside, Agholor may not even see starter snaps. Anyone who already has shares of Agholor in best-ball should probably be hoping for a trade at this point.

A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries, Titans

Beyond Corey Davis, Tennessee’s pass-catching unit was one of the most uninspiring in the league last year. The Titans looked to upgrade this offseason, adding Humphries as the main slot receiver and drafting A.J. Brown to start opposite Davis. Delanie Walker will also be competing for targets in an offense that threw at the third-lowest rate in neutral game script last season. In a mundane offense and a muddy depth chart, there isn’t much meat left on the bone after Davis.

Marquise Goodwin, 49ers

Goodwin exceeded five targets in a game just once last season and San Francisco spent significant draft capital on not one, but two wide receivers. Paulsen still has Goodwin ranked higher than his rookie teammates but behind Dante Pettis and George Kittle, it will be tough for Goodwin or wither rookie to have much of a floor.

Running Back Risers

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