Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 5 Targets

Oct 02, 2018

Three games decided in overtime. Three games where the opponent was completely outclassed. The end of Fitzmagic. Mitch Trubisky nearly ties the NFL record for single-game touchdown passes. Sunday of Week 4 was nothing short of a rollercoaster ride for fantasy GMs. That’s not even mentioning Kirk Cousins and Jared Goff dueling on Thursday to start us off. Week 4 featured seven(!) quarterbacks going over 30 fantasy points after five accomplished the same feat in Week 2. Our recommendations remained serviceable (QB18) with some tweaks to the process. Week 5 is somehow already here so let’s dig into the quarterbacks we can use off the wire.

Last week, we introduced our updated Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) ranks that are now updated on a weekly basis and help guide the recommendations. Noticeable changes for Week 5 include:

TB down from 20.1 to 29.5 aFPA
MIN down from 19.3 to 25.4 aFPA
GB up from 24.6 to 16.3 aFPA
ARI up from 14.6 to 10.1 aFPA

As always, the other guidelines include:

Only quarterbacks with no more than a 40 percent ownership in Yahoo leagues considered.
Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
Positive matchups for all pass-catchers to be considered.
4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries From Week 4:

Earl Thomas, Seahawks (Lower Leg) – In what will probably be the most tragic injury to the 2018 season, Earl Thomas is out for the season after fracturing his leg. His desire for a secure contract, the holdout and the finality to the Legion of Boom have impacts that extend far past fantasy football. Seattle was already a defense to target (19.9 aFPA) and it just got worse without the star safety on the field.

Micah Hyde, Bills (Groin) – Hyde injured his groin in the first quarter during Ty Montgomery’s long catch and run…on the other side of the field. The safety is considered week to week with the Titans coming to town.

Morris Claiborne (Stomach) and Josh Martin (Concussion), Jets – Claiborne’s illness sidelined him for Week 4 and he’s expected back for Week 5. Martin’s injury, however, is much more severe. The five-year vet and outside linebacker had yet to make an impact on a roster and wound up suffering his second concussion in two months. He’s now been placed on IR weakening the intermediate area of the field.

Top Streaming Picks

Blake Bortles at Chiefs

Let’s look at Bortles’ weekly quarterback finishes: 20, 4, 26 and 10. Now, let’s look at his pass attempts by week: 33, 45, 34 and 38. Their run-to-pass ratio in neutral game scripts (when the game is within a single score) was two times greater in both of his top-10 finishes along with an increase in total yards. Surprisingly enough, Bortles has been productive with the ball in his hands as compared to the running backs. His 26 rush yards per game are also appealing. Now Bortles gets the Chiefs defense in Week 5. They have eight sacks on the season, but four came against San Francisco in Week 3. Kansas City is our third-best defense for quarterbacks with a 25.5 aFPA. With Leonard Fournette likely out, the opportunity is there for the Jaguars to lean on the passing game with their 24-point implied team total.

Bortles is available in 67 percent of Yahoo leagues.