Bucky Irving’s Fantasy Football RB2 Case Depends on Reclaiming the Goal Line

Bucky Irving looked like one of the easier Year 2 running back bets before a foot injury derailed most of his sophomore season. The receiving profile, rookie-year efficiency, and fit in Tampa Bay’s offense are all still interesting, especially with Zac Robinson bringing more outside-zone concepts to the run game. But Irving’s ugly post-injury finish, lack of goal-line usage, Kenneth Gainwell’s arrival, and offseason shoulder recovery make this a much shakier fantasy profile than his breakout rookie season suggested.

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Bucky Irving’s Career

Bucky Irving’s brief two-year professional career has already seen about as many ups and downs as you could possibly fit into such a short span. The former Oregon Duck lasted deep into the fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft, as the sixth running back off the board, coming off of an FBS-leading 56 catches in 2023 and two 1,000+ yard rushing performances over the previous two seasons. With the 5’9”, 192-pound Irving running only a 4.55 40-yard dash and failing to make much noise during his first camp/preseason, it was all but guaranteed that incumbent Rachaad White would handle the majority of the workload heading into 2024.

It would take a mid-season groin injury to get a good look at Irving, but by the end of his rookie season, it was abundantly obvious that he was the best running back on the team, and heading into 2025, there was no question who the lead back was. But then the injury bug bit. Suffering a foot sprain that was deemed “not a long-term injury” in Week 4, he would miss the next two months before returning at less than full strength.

In six post-injury games to finish the 2025 season, Irving handled 116 opportunities (rush attempts + targets). Among 52 running backs who had at least 40 attempts over that span, he ranked 45th in YPA (3.44), 41st in explosive run rate (2.0%), 39th in success rate (46.1%), 45th in yards after contact (1.68), and 39th in missed tackles forced per attempt (0.12).

And despite that heavy workload, we weren’t even bailed out by touchdown weeks (he scored only two in this span), meaning he finished this latter part of the season with one RB1 week (RB12), two RB2 weeks (RB19, RB19), two RB3 weeks (RB34, RB36), and an RB4 week (RB41). Not a great feeling after you’ve presumably kept him in an IR spot all season, only to see those finishes during the fantasy playoffs.

That lack of end zone trips was no fluke, either. There were 19 Tampa Bay carries inside the opponents’ five-yard line last season, all of which went to Rachaad White and Sean Tucker. Through the air, the Buccaneers had 24 passes from inside the 10-yard line. Irving was tied for sixth on the team with only one of those targets. White is out of town (more on that later), which could clear up some room for Irving to regain some of that goal-line role, but it’s not a good look that the team gave him exactly zero chances through ten games.

We’ll have to see if that holds with the new coaching staff in the building.

The Buccaneers’ Offense in 2026

With injuries to the quarterback, multiple offensive weapons, and offensive linemen, the Buccaneers had a tall hill to climb to finish as a top-5 scoring team in back-to-back years. Things started off well enough, with the team averaging north of 27 points per game through the first six contests, but things quickly went downhill from there. Following the 8-9 season, OC Josh Grizzard got the boot, with head coach Todd Bowles citing a lack of offensive progression throughout the season as the biggest issue.

Enter Zac Robinson. With Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris receiving his walking papers after last season, Robinson would make a lateral move in the NFC South to bring his McVay-tree play-calling to Tampa Bay. Robinson figures to get Baker Mayfield on the move plenty, a situation that the quarterback had thrived in before his injury-riddled 2025. Mayfield would finish 22nd in EPA/dropback on throws out of the pocket (-0.287) after ending the 2024 campaign ranked behind only Jared Goff (!!) and Lamar Jackson in that category (0.218). There’s hope that good health, paired with some increase in play-action bootleg work, can add some dynamism back into the passing game.

To play off those bootleg looks, we should also see plenty of outside zone in the running game, where Atlanta ranked 1st in yardage gained on those looks in each of the last two seasons. The Bucs have been far less prolific in that category in recent years, but it is worth pointing out that Bucky Irving ranked 12th in YPA on outside zone last season (4.97) with a 5.9% explosive run rate. Compare that to his 3.01 and 1.4% marks on every other run last season, and there’s an easy argument to be made that a change in concept(s) could improve his efficiency.

But we still have to assess his potential workload.

Projecting the Buccaneers’ Backfield in Fantasy

The initial praise from the newly hired Zac Robinson was effusive toward Irving. All the way back in February, Robinson said he sees him in a “very similar light” to Bijan Robinson due to his work in the passing game, saying that “there’s not a run concept he can’t run." It seemed like all wheels up until a few months later, when he mentioned that the newly-acquired Kenneth Gainwell has a “similar skillset” to Irving, and then a month after that, Todd Bowles said that this would be a “1A/1B” situation between the two.

So, who knows what exactly all this coach-speak will mean? What we do know is that Gainwell has been far more efficient with his opportunities than Rachaad White has been in recent years, notably in the passing game. Last year, Gainwell finished ninth in the league with a 1.47 YPRR and 18th in YPA in his one-year stint with the Steelers, including his 4.54 YPA against stacked boxes (10th/66); an area where White has finished 57th, 34th, 38th, and 50th over his four-year career. In other words, Gainwell could be a much bigger threat to Irving’s passing-game and short-yardage work than White was during Irving’s 2024 breakout.

General health from Mayfield, Tristan Wirfs, Cody Mauch, Luke Goedeke, and Chris Godwin, along with a new offensive philosophy, should be the tide that lifts all boats. With that said, I believe the gap between Irving's and Gainwell’s usage is closer than ADP would like to admit. Gainwell is going 36-plus selections after Irving, and the incumbent is still purportedly recovering from off-season shoulder surgery, which could impact his early-season role. He’s going to need to retake some sort of goal-line role if we’re going to trust him as an RB2.

Bottom Line

• Bucky Irving still has plenty of traits we want to chase in fantasy. He has already shown receiving ability, rookie-year (and pre-injury sophomore-year) rushing efficiency, and enough outside-zone success to fit what Zac Robinson is likely to bring to Tampa Bay’s offense.
• The issue is that the role is not as clean as it looked a year ago. Irving struggled badly after returning from his foot injury, saw zero carries inside the five-yard line, and now has Kenneth Gainwell threatening both passing-down work and some of the short-yardage usage that Rachaad White rarely stole from him.
• According to 4for4's Multi-Site ADP Tool, Bucky Irving is coming off boards as the RB24 in the middle of the fifth round. Irving is more of a fragile RB2 bet than a comfortable one. If he regains goal-line work and looks fully healthy, the offense can support a strong fantasy season. But at cost, Gainwell looks much closer in projected usage than the market is treating him, making Irving a player who needs the touchdown role back before if we are going to fully trust him.