LeGarrette Blount & 11 Other MFL10 ADP Risers & Fallers (May 24- June 8)
In the weeks following the NFL Draft, there were major ADP swings in MFL10s, which should be expected. Now that the post-draft hype has died down, MFL10 owners are reacting to injuries, OTA reports, and everyone’s favorite ADP mover, coachspeak.
Using 4for4’s MFL10 ADP Tool, I will highlight some of the most notable MFL10 ADP swings over the last two weeks (May 24-June 8).
Given the weapons that New England has surrounded Brady with, it’s no surprise that the Pats’ quarterback is going off the board as the QB2 in MFL10s, but his price is flirting with uncomfortably expensive. Brady’s recent price hike is likely an indicator of how overall quarterback ADP tends to shift as we get into the summer months -- as more casual drafters enter MFL10s, quarterbacks start going earlier and earlier.
If you are looking to get exposure to the top four or five quarterbacks, you may want to get them the next time they fall in your draft. Come July, you might not find a discount again.
Time and time again, the MFL10 community has shown trepidation towards rostering free agents, especially when that player is a running back who will be 31 by season’s end. Once Blount landed in Philadelphia, though, owners pounced.
Now being drafted as the RB35, Blount finds himself on a team that is heavily invested in the passing game, but lacking a lead running back. There should be enough touches and touchdown upside for Blount to still outperform his current ADP, but if his price continues to climb, there might not be much wiggle room left.
Beat reports coming out of San Francisco OTAs have been anything but kind to Carlos Hyde, leading MFL10 drafters rushing to roster his backup. The 49ers traded up in the fourth round of this year’s draft to land Williams, a player that PlayerProfiler.com suggests is Jeremy Langford-esque.
With Kyle Shanahan bringing in an outside-zone running scheme, the concerns surrounding Hyde may be real, but that doesn’t mean that he won’t remain the starter and owners still need to consider that always-pesky Tim Hightower is lurking on the depth chart. With one of the lowest projected win totals in the league this year, this potential three-headed running back monster may be one to avoid altogether.
After Kansas City cut Jeremy Maclin last week, Twitter has been ablaze with Tyreek Hill debate, but it’s the rookie running back that’s quietly creeping up draft boards. Already a post-draft riser, Hunt is now going off MFL10 boards as the RB38 in the middle of the ninth round. Going in the same round as Hunt is a slew of quarterback talent, plus tight ends such as Kyle Rudolph and Zach Ertz. Combine that with Hunt's climbing price tag, and it's more than enough to keep me off a rookie that will likely have to completely unseat Spencer Ware as the starter to justify this pick.
After Baltimore ignored the offensive skill positions in the draft, both Ravens receivers saw their ADPs rise. Then, Dennis Pitta suffered a possible career-ending hip injury. Now, Wallace and Perriman now find themselves both being drafted in the single-digit rounds of MFL10s.
There is now speculation, however, that Baltimore could be the landing spot for the aforementioned Maclin or Eric Decker, either of which would suppress the ADPs of the current Ravens wideouts. Fans of Wallace or Perriman should wait to see where Maclin and Decker land and hope for a discount on the current Ravens.
Recent reports that Brown struggled last year because of issues from his sickle cell trait and a large cyst in his back, and not because of talent, have drafters hopeful that he can live up to the expectations that saw Brown going as early as the fifth round in many drafts last season. The departure of Michael Floyd should clear way for Brown to see an uptick in targets this year and his asking price still affordable, despite jumping almost a full round over the past two weeks.
Murray saw his ADP drop from the sixth round to the ninth round of MFL10s after Minnesota drafted Dalvin Cook. Since then, Murray's stock has continued to plummet -- he is now a borderline 12th-round pick. He is recovering from ankle surgery and looks to be in serious trouble of missing the entire offseason. Unless the Vikings provide some clarity on his situation before camp, he may not be worth a shot yet, even at this price.
Following a brief ADP spike after signing with Denver, fantasy owners have cooled off on Charles over the past couple of weeks. Going as the RB52 in MFL10s, John Paulsen has Jamaal projected as the RB38 in PPR leagues. If Charles falls into the Danny Woodhead role in Mike McCoy’s offense, which Paulsen suggests as a possibility, owners should be giddy over the prospects of getting the Denver back at a discount.
Rob Kelley, Redskins
The Samaje Perine hype train is gaining steam, which has pushed down Kelley’s ADP. Perine is now going almost four full rounds ahead of Kelley, the Redskins' incumbent starter. Though Kelley was far from spectacular in 2016, there’s no guarantee that the fourth-round rookie will usurp Kelley as the featured back. In backfield battles, I’m usually inclined to take a stab at the cheaper player, especially this early in the offseason.
Williams was drafted seventh overall and promptly saw his ADP jump almost two rounds. Since reports of a “mild” herniated disc have surfaced, the rookie’s price is now at its lowest point since MFL10s opened. On his recent podcast, Ross Tucker explained that very few players ever recover from a herniated disc short of surgery. At this point, if I’m buying a Charger with the last name Williams, it will be Tyrell.
A lack of participation in OTAs often drives down a player's value, and that is the case with White. Understandably, the public showed nerves when the oft-injured White sat out an OTA session late in May. Combine that with the signing of Victor Cruz and rumblings that Chicago is a potential landing spot for Maclin, and the writing on the wall suggests that the Bears may not have much confidence in their 2015 first-rounder. Given the uncertainty at the position, sprinkling in some shares of White across your MFL10 portfolio is fine, as long as you know that he is a lottery ticket at this point.
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