Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 10 Targets

Streaming Quarterbacks: Week 10 Targets

By Chris Allen (4for4 Contributor), last update Nov 6, 2018

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Chris Allen comes from an analytical background, leveraging his data skills with his multiple years of experience across different formats (e.g. seasonal redraft, DFS, MFL10). He has tested weather effects and its impact on games, player output variance, and the validity of the associated narratives. Chris can be heard as co-host on the Dynasty Manual podcast.

Follow Chris Allen on Twitter: @ChrisAllenFFWX.

It’s been said that teams take on the identity of their quarterback or head coach. The weight of their situation becomes an anchor making a bad situation worse. We all saw it this past Thursday to start Week 9. Derek Carr was pegged as a viable streamer, but it became clear in the first quarter that Oakland has problems that extend past the goalposts. The offense couldn’t get on track and the defense was flustered as San Francisco’s third-string quarterback led the team to a convincing win. Even the 49ers defense took advantage of the situation while tallying their highest sack count of the season. We can’t predict game script nor how teams will respond, but after the analysis is over a team’s situation should at least be considered as we evaluate our streamers.

While the Carr recommendation fell short, Fitzpatrick finished Week 9 with 24 points and finished as the QB6. Case Keenum also had a solid outing with 15.6 points (QB17). We’re through the bye week gauntlet with more options available to us. Let’s review the ground rules and injuries before getting to this week’s picks.

Our Schedule-Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (aFPA) ranks for quarterbacks are updated each week. Noticeable changes from Week 9 to Week 10 include:

  • MIA up from 18.3 to 17.3 aFPA.
  • DET up from 19.3 to 17.7 aFPA.
  • LAR down from 15.6 to 17 aFPA.
  • DAL down from 15.8 to 17.6 aFPA.

Injuries and personnel changes have altered our views on many of the defenses originally viewed as positive matchups to target. Defenses are discussed above, and injuries are discussed in the section below. As always, the other guidelines include:

  • Only quarterbacks with no more than a 45% ownership in Yahoo leagues are considered.
  • Ancillary metrics and game conditions (e.g. defensive ranking, weather) will be factored into the analysis.
  • Positive matchups for all pass catchers to be considered.
  • 4for4 rankings should always be consulted for league-specific decisions.

Key Defensive Injuries:

Denzel Ward, E.J. Gaines and Christian Kirksey, Browns (Hip, Concussion, Hamstring) – Losing one of your top defensive players against the top scoring offense in the league isn’t the best strategy. The Browns remain one of the stingiest defenses to quarterbacks (13.2 aFPA), but their secondary will become even more vulnerable should the rookie CB miss some time.

Duke Ejiofor, Texans (Shoulder) – Houston’s secondary was already in question and now their interior is being affected. The rookie out of Wake Forest is still a rotational player, but the Texans need as much depth as possible to keep their remaining starters healthy (17.9 aFPA). There should be some general optimism as the team goes on bye in Week 10 and face an injury-plagued Washington offense in Week 11.

Bradley McDougald, Seahawks (Knee) – Seattle’s starting strong safety had missed practice during the week prior to the game and left between halves. Early reports suggested general soreness, but Seattle (14.7 aFPA) clearly could’ve used the help against the Chargers. It’s a situation to monitor as the Seahawks travel to Los Angeles to face the Rams.

Top Streaming Picks

Baker Mayfield vs Falcons

While the head coaching change didn’t instill much confidence, the results on the field in Week 9 gave the fantasy community some hope. Mayfield’s completion percentage and passing yardage improved along with his adjusted yards per attempt. Most notable was the running back involvement in the passing game. Their 26 percent target share was the greatest of the season with two scores against Kansas City. Duke Johnson’s nine targets were the most he’d seen since Week 4 of 2017 as his routes to the outside opened up targets towards the interior. Their passing rate in neutral situations also increased from 64 to 68 percent. If we value team situations, new offensive coordinator Freddie Kitchens’ goal to gauge comfort level with the play calling is something to consider as the Cleveland enters Week 10. The Falcons are still fresh off their Week 8 bye, but the defense is still lacking due to injuries (22.3 aFPA). Baker’s at home with a fresh offensive identity and a 23.3 implied team total making him the top streamer recommendation for Week 10.

Mayfield is available in 62 percent of Yahoo leagues.

Marcus Mariota vs Patriots

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2018