NFL Week 9 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Nov 06, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

There were certainly more treats than tricks over Halloween weekend. Another three winners to add to our collection, feels pretty great. We’ll get into the recap shortly, but I can’t believe we’re already approaching the halfway mark of the season. How has that happened? It feels like just yesterday we were watching Wan’Dale Robinson sputter his way to five receptions in Week 1. Alas, we move on. This week feels super tough – a lot of injuries to navigate, and the quarterback carousel seems to be in full swing. First, let’s look back at last week...

Week 8 Recap (3-0), Overall (17-7):

Thumbs up all around! The Rams ‘won’ the game on the ground, though we had an early scare when they were down in the first quarter. The Ravens experience was not one I want to live through again in a hurry... Third-string rookie quarterback in, Cuevas just about got over the line. Kalif Raymond, was it a pass? Was it a rush? Who cares, it was ruled a rush, and that’s good enough for me! We rode our luck a little, but I felt owed one from when Amon-Ra St. Brown finished a yard shy of his receiving line earlier this year. I’m still bitter! Anyway, Week 9, let’s be having you...

Week 9:

Jordan Mason under 11.5 Carries v Buffalo Bills (-109)

Risk 1.09 units to win 1 unit.

I cannot see a world where the Vikings are able to run the ball efficiently against the Bills. Mason played just 14 snaps last week and had only eight carries against an improved Lions defensive front. The Vikings’ backfield has failed to impress through eight weeks so far this season, and with Carson Wentz under center, I believe they’ll rely more on the passing game vs. the Bills’ secondary than try to establish the run.

On his return from IR, Mason had 15 carries in Week 7 against the Colts – a game they dominated from start to finish. Fast forward a week, the Vikings played catch-up through nearly the whole second half vs. the Lions and were forced to pass a lot; they had a season-high pass rate of 64%. Mason also must contend with fellow running backs DeeJay Dallas and Aaron Jones, who combined for 72% of the snaps in Week 8.

The Bills’ ability to sustain long, and often scoring, drives makes it difficult for teams to prioritize the run over the pass. Quarterbacks, on average, attempt 38 passes per game against the Bills, even more if you disregard Baltimore’s shenanigans last weekend. I’m expecting a pass-heavy Vikings this weekend, and Mason will end up with the short end of the stick in the running back room.

Javonte Williams over 17.5 Carries v Indianapolis Colts (-116)

Risk 1.16 units to win 1 unit.

I’ve been critical of Williams’ rushing success this year, particularly before his Week 3 encounter with the Baltimore Ravens when he ran for a then-season best of 98 yards. We were against him that day, but this weekend we are rolling with the back who’s had 49 carries across his last two games. The sample size is small, but it does indicate a slight shift in how Dallas might operate on offense going forward.

As mentioned above, Williams has pounded the rock recently. While he did not make much headway against the Cardinals last time out, he ran all over the Eagles in Week 7. Running backs are 5/8 to the over on rushing attempts against the Colts this year, and one of those unders was Jacory Croskey-Merritt, who had a third-string rookie quarterback for over half of the game. The Cowboys’ pass rate in the previous two games has been 42% and 46% - if the game is kept close enough, I believe they will adopt a run-first approach. It’s worth noting the Cowboys are 5.5-point favorites here, which should lead to a run-heavy game script.

The Colts are in freefall – since trading for Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner nearly a year to the day, they have a record of 3-13. I’m not saying the two are aligned, but it’s astonishing to see a general manager go all in and have it spectacularly backfire. They have also traded DeForest Buckner, one of their cornerstones on the defensive line. While Grover Stewart and Adetomiwa Adebawore remain, this is not the same front that has stymied running backs in the past.

Xavier Worthy under 32.5 Receiving Yards v New York Jets (-125)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

Betting against Worthy is always a little bit scary because his explosive play potential is high, even when he’s in indifferent form. He trails only Travis Kelce in total targets among Chiefs this year, but his average depth of target (aDOT) is 8.21, which ranks 81st out of 104 qualifying wide receivers in the league. The return of Rashee Rice is a huge dampener in this aspect, as his aDOT is 6.12, which ranks 94th. Kelce also operates in this area of the field; there is a lot of competition for not a lot of space.

This, in theory, would push Worthy’s targets down the field. The emergence of rookie Cyrus Allen has, however, made this uncertain. Mahomes is targeting Allen on average 12 yards down the field. There are a lot of cooks with a big bowl of broth to be spoiled. Worthy’s catch rate is just 65%, lower than Rice, Kelce, and Allen. While he leads the Chiefs in routes run, he averages just 1 YPRR (yards per route run). To put it bluntly, that’s a lot of cardio while the other receivers make the most of their time on the field. He has cleared 25 receiving yards just twice this season.

Despite their recent slump, the Chiefs are 10-point favorites against a faltering Jets team. Kenneth Walker has had a huge workload in games the Chiefs have been favored in this season, and I would expect more of the same this week. The Chiefs’ pass rate is consistently high, but this doesn’t faze me. I’m sure Worthy will get targets; he has just yet to make the most of them this season, and hopefully that continues this week.

Two unders in a week; this is uncharted territory for me – a man with a huge proclivity to bet the over. Let’s hope the game scripts follow what we believe to be true. There is potential for a lot of high-scoring games this week too; I think, as it stands, four games are projected for 50+ points. Doesn’t feel like very often that’s the case! Let’s have ourselves a Sunday and hope for some winners! Let’s go!

Note: odds correct at the time of posting