NFL Week 5 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Oct 09, 2026

USA TODAY Network via Reuters Connect

Jeez, what a frustrating week. You think you have a good grasp on how a team will operate, or how a game will go, and then you’re chewed up and spat out by the ridiculousness of the NFL. The upside plays aren't going as planned; it’s the best time of year to play them, as the lines aren’t adjusted for players who will have an increasing role over the course of the year. Let’s dissect what went right, and what went wrong...

Week 4 Recap (1-2), Overall (6-6):

Well, let’s start with the obvious – Amon-Ra St. Brown was one yard short of clearing his line, so that was a pretty annoying one to drop. However, I blame myself entirely for touching the Houston backfield. Woody Marks was indeed running better than David Montgomery, but perhaps the play was to take Montgomery’s under instead; it's hard to predict who will play more on the drive-by-drive backfields. Juwan Johnson easily cleared his line, and it was another game where the Saints offense was throwing a lot – I can see this being the case in the coming weeks too.

Week 5:

Emanuel Wilson over 9.5 Receiving Yards v San Francisco 49ers (-132)

Risk 1.32 units to win 1 unit.

Wilson assumed a major role in the Seahawks' backfield following rookie Jadarian Price’s injury. He handled 79% of the first-down snaps, ran for over 80 yards, and had four targets, three of which were designed screens. Though the Seahawks are a run-heavy team, their running back usage in all forms is one of the highest in the league.

Wilson is sure to see his role grow following an impressive showing last week, though a sterner test awaits in Week 5 against the 49ers. Divisional games can always throw up surprises, but the cold facts are that running back receiving usage against the 49ers has been astronomical. RJ Harvey had 10 receptions last time out, though not all of those were designed (contrary to belief). The 49ers have allowed 23 receptions to running backs in their last two games, totaling 141 yards. With a stout run defence, the way to get Wilson involved will be

The Seahawks are field goal favourites in this one, though I think that just considers home advantage – truthfully there is very little between these two sides and would expect it to be decided by a field goal either way. There is a bit of upside here as Wilson isn’t the nailed-on #1 guy, but 10 yards feels very achievable against a strong 49ers run defense that is susceptible to giving up yards through the air to running backs.

Troy Franklin over 1.5 Receptions v Los Angeles Chargers (-132)

Risk 1.32 units to win 1 unit.

Okay, I can’t resist the upside with this one. With Pat Bryant certain to miss Sunday’s game, you may be thinking: “It’s really time Denver got Jaylen Waddle going!”, right? Wrong. In games that Bryant had zero targets last year, Franklin received at least four targets. After Bryant exited last weekend’s game, Franklin played 12 of the 15 snaps in 11 personnel – Marvin Mims played just five. Franklin was second in targets for all Broncos players last year too. With Sean Payton returning to his role as play-caller, we could see a return to Franklin playing a much more important role.

While the Broncos are slight favourites heading to Inglewood, they have been mightily inefficient running the ball and boast one of the higher pass rates (63%) in the league. It is hard to see them turning into a powerhouse on the ground overnight, so a healthy dose of passing would not be surprising to see. The Chargers, sitting at 0-4 and currently in the midst of a gauntlet of fixtures, are a hot mess. Most of the issues do lie with the offense, but I do fancy them to keep this one close – they've played the Broncos well in LA historically.

Garrett Wilson over 69.5 Receiving Yards v Cleveland Browns (-125)

Risk 1.25 units to win 1 unit.

I decided one Wilson just isn’t enough. Garrett Wilson is one of the best receivers in the league against man coverage, which the Browns run at the highest rate in the league (46.5%). Wilson vs. man coverage in 2026: 55% target share, 11 catches on 11 targets, 5.08 yards per route run (YPRR), 132 receiving yards, and 0.42 targets per route run. All those stats are good enough for top 5 in the league.

This line is on the higher side, and he may face a lot of Denzel Ward in coverage, who is a very good shutdown corner, but four receivers have eclipsed 70 receiving yards this season against the Browns. The Jets are 2.5-point favourites here, but the Browns have shown enough in recent weeks to suggest they’re not just here to make up the numbers. I would expect this one to be close; if the Jets do pull away, they’re likely to run the ball a lot and you can run over this Browns front lacking Mason Graham et al, but with no Breece Hall they may find that more difficult.

Wilson has 31 targets through four games, even with the once-in-a-blue-moon game last weekend where the Jets ran the fourth fewest plays ever (he still had four targets, and seven targets in their opening weekend win v the Titans where their pass rate was only 39%. If this game plays out as we expect, the Jets are going to be pass-heavy, and Wilson should thrive against the Browns’ coverage.

That’s your lot for this week. I couldn’t resist the Franklin prop – I also like the idea of laddering his receptions; you can get up to five receptions for a pretty good price. Emanuel Wilson has done enough to earn a bigger role, and Garrett Wilson has been extremely trustworthy this season. Let’s have ourselves a Sunday! Let’s go!

Note: odds correct at time of posting