NFL Week 1 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Sep 11, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Week 1 of the NFL season often throws up plenty of unknowns. Do we believe the media hype for the latest training camp darling? Who of the old guard still has enough in the tank to ward off Father Time? We'll find out soon enough, but it's even better to be ahead of the curve.

Each week I'll provide three of my favourite plays backed up by reasoning, data, and stats. The focus will be on player props taken from Rebet, finding the best value to help 4for4's subscribers make informed decisions on how to bet on Sundays.

I'll also keep a tally of the wins and losses to keep myself honest, and so we have a reference for how profitable the season has been. We'll stick to smaller unit bets this week — I like to adopt a 'wait and see' attitude in the opening weekend of the campaign, but I'm always willing to make a few more riskier plays on players I believe have props that are mispriced.

So come along on the journey; we'll have some fun and hopefully win some money along the way. Without further ado...

Wan’Dale Robinson Over 4.5 Receptions v NYJ (-113)

Risk 1.13 units to win 1 unit

Robinson caught 92 passes for 1,014 yards in 2025, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.4, the third-lowest total in the NFL of all receivers with 500+ routes run. The former New York Giant signed a hefty deal with the Tennessee Titans in March, agreeing to a four-year $70m contract with $38m guaranteed, and now seems set to feature as a key component in new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll’s passing game.

The New York Jets traded away star cornerback Ahmad ‘Sauce’ Gardner to the Indianapolis Colts midway through the 2025 season and have not replaced him with a player of similar calibre. They also dealt defensive tackle Quinnen Williams to the Dallas Cowboys, seemingly with an eye on the future, accruing three first-round draft picks in the process.

Robinson is expected to operate out of the slot as he did under Daboll last year, leading the league in slot snaps and totaling over 600 receiving yards from there. This feels like a great spot against a Jets defense that had a league-worst .27 expected points added per play (EPA/P) on pass defense last season.

Derrick Henry Over 17.5 Rush Attempts v IND (-133)

Risk 1.33 units to win 1 unit

By his lofty standards, King Henry endured a slow start to the 2025 season, rushing for over 50 yards just once in the first five weeks. He was a different beast post-bye week and had 18+ rush attempts in the following five consecutive weeks as the Ravens turned their season around, before falling apart in the run-in. Putting it simply, when the Ravens were playing winning football, the former Heisman Trophy winner was rushing effectively and frequently. Henry also had the fourth most carries in the league, and despite Father Time breathing down his neck, the 32-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down just yet.

Though the Colts’ run defense was stout last year, the game script is not expected to favor them at all. The Ravens are 3.5-point favourites in what will be Indianapolis quarterback Daniel Jones’ first game back from his torn Achilles injury in week 14 of last year. Additionally, the Ravens’ -8.8% pass rate over expected (PROE) was the lowest in the entire league last season, favouring the run in 47% of neutral situations. Henry is set for another season of a heavy workload, with the Colts in his sights to kick off the new campaign.

Devaughn Vele Over 3.5 receptions v DET (-114)

Risk 1.14 units to win 1 unit

Vele is comfortably WR2 on a Saints roster that seriously lacks receiving talent. Following the trade of Rashid Shaheed last season, Vele had games of seven, eight, five, and six targets before injury curtailed his season. Due to rookie receiver Jordon Tyson suffering an injury and being placed on IR, Vele is only competing for targets with Chris Olave and Juwan Johnson, and Tyler Shough showed flashes in the final stretch last year to suggest he has potential to be a solid quarterback.

The Lions cut Terrion Arnold due to serious off-field issues, while Kerby Joseph and Brian Branch are currently on the physically unable to perform list (PUP). The Saints, 6.5-point underdogs, will likely be coming from behind in this one, and thus Shough’s pass rate over expected (PROE) should be higher. They also deployed one of the fastest-paced offenses in the league, averaging 62 plays per game.

There we have it, the first three picks of the season are in the books, and now we wait. Thanks for reading, and best of luck with your bets this Sunday; let's go!

Note: odds correct at time of posting