NFL Week 7 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Oct 23, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Winning makes me happy. And consecutive weeks of three winners make me even happier. It’s important to celebrate these good weeks because, as we saw previously, even if you think you have it worked out, picking winners is not as easy as it feels on paper. Nevertheless, the data and trends we have access to and are seeing now are certainly backing up what I’m seeing on the field. Let’s recap a positive Week 6!

Week 6 Recap (3-0), Overall (12-6):

It was, in truth, another relatively stress-free week for our picks. Aaron Rodgers ended on 33 completions, nearly a third more than what we needed from him. Jonathan Taylor crept over his total, but as I said – if the Colts are in a one-score game, Taylor is still going to get the ball a lot, and that’s how it panned out. Matthew Golden’s breakout continued as he totaled 100+ receiving yards, a longest reception of 34 yards, and a touchdown. Week 7; what do you have in store for us?

Week 7:

Harold Fannin Jr. Under 30.5 Receiving Yards v Tennessee Titans (-126)

Risk 1.26 units to win 1 unit.

It feels somewhat wrong to take a tight end under on ‘National Tight Ends Day’, but the numbers are not in Fannin’s favor at all here.

Starting tight ends have gone under their receiving line in four of five games v the Titans this year (excluding Tyler Warren, who was out last week). Only Kenyon Sadiq in Week 1 managed the feat, and even then, he only amassed 21 yards. Wide receivers and running backs have fared better v the Titans defense, and the Browns will be boosted by the return of sophomore running back Quinshon Judkins to their starting lineup. The emergence of rookie receivers Denzel Boston and K.C. Concepcion has reduced Fannin’s target share to 17.44%, down from 21% last season.

Let’s dig more into the numbers – while Fannin’s route participation and snap counts are high, quarterback Deshaun Watson is not looking his way all too often. Fannin’s TPRR (targets per route run) is just 0.16, 25th out of 34 qualifying tight ends. His YPRR (yards per route run), just 0.88. 29th out of 34 qualifying tight ends. While Fannin is on the field a lot, his usage is not as high as his route participation would suggest. And, despite his aDOT (average depth of target) of 6.13 (21st of qualifying tight ends), his catch rate is only 63.33%. You guessed it, 29th of all qualifying tight ends.

Chuba Hubbard Under 70.5 Rushing Yards v Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-126)

Risk 1.26 units to win 1 unit.

Good luck finding a running back that has cleared 60, let alone 70 yards v the Bucs this year. It’s extremely well documented how good Todd Bowles’ defense has been against the run – they allow just 75 yards on the ground per game, and just 65 yards to running backs. Hubbard enters this one in the form of his life, following consecutive games of over 100 rushing yards. However, teams simply don’t even bother running the ball against the Bucs’ front – the average pass rate against Tampa is 63% this year, despite their 1-5 record. The Panthers’ own neutral pass rate is 64%, good enough for third in the NFL.

I’d like to offer some hope to Tampa fans in these trying times. Baker Mayfield is back. Well, I tried. The Jalon Daniels experiment had more downs than ups, but their QB1 is now back in the fray after missing the previous three weeks. Mayfield had underwhelmed in the small sample of games he played this year, though he faced some good defences before getting hurt. There is hope that Mayfield will make the Buccaneers more competitive, and this should lead to a closer game and less chance the Panthers will be running down the clock early in the game.

Jaylen Warren Over 14.5 Carries v New Orleans Saints (-110)

Risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit.

I did not envisage myself going back to the Pittsburgh Steelers offence for a second week in a row, but here we are. Warren has firmly cemented himself as the top dog in the Steelers’ running back room with some impressive performances so far this year. Rico Dowdle returned last week and had seven carries for 40 yards, which does instill some uncertainty into this pick, though head coach Mike McCarthy has been clear that Warren has earned the right to be the Steelers' “feature player”.

Warren’s splits with and without Dowdle tell somewhat of a story. In Dowdle’s three-week absence, Warren racked up over 88% of the snaps, rushing for 107 yards per game and averaging 16 carries. In those games, he did face some of the poorer run defenses in the league, namely the Colts and Bengals – though there are not many worse run defenses than the Saints. Last week, Dowdle returned, and Warren only played 75% of the snaps, and managed 14 carries for just 50 yards – albeit against the Tampa run defense we’ve heard so much about.

I fully expect Warren to maintain at least 75% of the snaps, and a much higher rush rate against the third-worst defense in the league by epa/rush (expected points added per rush). Warren’s success rate of 44% ranks 11th in the league, his epa/rush is 10th, and his yards-per-carry of 5.48 is third. Dowdle’s success rate is 73rd of 80 qualifying running backs. It’s clear, to me at least, the future of the Steelers’ backfield lies with Warren – let's hope McCarthy sees it the same way.

I guess I was feeling the unders this week, which is not usually the way I attack props. However, I do think some of these lines are a little juiced, and the way I see the games going does not correlate with what's on paper. Watch out for the tight end touchdown parlays this week – there is little data to suggest tight ends actually perform better on the ‘national holiday’ than any other Sunday. With that being said, let’s have ourselves a Sunday! Let’s go!

Note: odds correct at time of posting