NFL Week 10 Best Bets on Rebet: Oli Fell's Top Player Props

Nov 12, 2026

IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Seeing as we are now halfway through the year, I thought I’d break down what’s been profitable and what hasn’t for us this season. Spoiler alert: it’s mostly good.

Wide Receiver props are 7-2. 6-1 to the over, 1-1 to the under.

Running Back props are 7-4. 5-3 to the over, 2-1 to the under.

Tight End props are 2-1. 2-0 to the over, 0-1 to the under.

Quarterback Props are 3-1. 2-1 to the over, 1-0 to the under.

So, that means we’re 15-5 to the over and 4-3 to the under. As I’ve mentioned before, I am usually an overs bettor, hence the records. While I won’t let this dictate what I pick for the rest of the season, it is interesting to lay it out like that. Also, transparency is good. Before we get into Week 10, let’s take a quick look back at Week 9...

Week 9 Recap (2-1), Overall (19-8):

A pretty good week! Xavier Worthy had six targets, and unfortunately for us, he caught all six. Usually, he would only catch three, maybe four of these. It happens. As predicted, the Vikings had no run game, and the Bills suffocated them with long drives, so Jordan Mason only had six carries. Javonte Williams was our sweat of the week – he just managed to clear his carries total in the last knockings of the game. Despite going out with an injury, Tyler Goodson ate into his workload and was efficient running the ball. Goodson is now expected to miss time, so the backfield could be all Williams again... We’re on to Week 10!

Week 10

Xavier Hutchinson over 2.5 Receptions v Cleveland Browns (-149)

Risk 2 units to win 1.34 units.

From one Xavier to another. There’s quite a lot of juice on this number, so we’ll go for a slightly higher stake. Hutchinson has been very involved recently and now gets a great matchup against a man-coverage-heavy Browns defense. The Browns run man coverage at the league’s highest rate of 43%, and very rarely leave the middle of the field open. Hutchinson has a 22% target share against man coverage, but a whopping 38% share of targets per route run. He’s amassed three or more receptions in all but one game this year.

Eagle-eyed box score watchers will have noticed somewhat of a shift in last week’s demolition of the Chargers in the Houston receiver room; Hutchinson led the team in snaps and has had more targets than star wide receiver Nico Collins two weeks in a row. While Collins’ usage is going down, Hutchinson’s is rising. Buoyed by the return of Tank Dell, who received 9 targets last week, Collins is no longer the outright main man in this offence.

Collins should also see a healthy dose of 5x Pro Bowler Denzel Ward. With three interceptions on the season already, quarterback CJ Stroud may look elsewhere on passing downs. Starting safety Ronnie Hickman is in concussion protocol and, at the time of writing, may miss out.

Parker Washington over 34.5 First Half Receiving Yards v Tennessee Titans (-122)

Risk 1.22 units to win 1 unit.

Washington’s first-half vs. second-half splits this year are pretty telling of how the Jaguars have managed to dominate games this year, to the point they can ease their foot off the gas often with a whole quarter to go. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has only completed six of nine games this season.

Washington averages 4.5 targets and 53 receiving yards in the first half of games this year, compared to just 2.4 targets and 13 receiving yards in the second half. The Jaguars get the ball to him early, and once they have a commanding lead, they run the ball down the opposition's throats. Their pass rate was 46% last week, but in the first half it was 55%. The ideology in Jacksonville is clear – pass the ball to lead the game and run the ball to win. Running back Bhayshul Tuten was DNP in Wednesday’s practice, which limits the rushing offence somewhat – this could lead to more passing opportunities throughout if they struggle to run the ball.

The Jaguars are 10.5-point favorites, which suits their style of game script to a T. If Washington can have a big first half, the pathway to run the ball and drain clock in the second is clear.

Jordyn Tyson over 4.5 Receptions v Carolina Panthers (-102)

Risk 1.02 units to win 1 unit.

Tyson made his season debut last weekend coming off injured reserve (IR) and finished with four receptions for 30 yards on five targets. The most impressive thing about this is that he managed it on just 14 routes run. Tyson played 18 snaps, meaning his targets per route run (TPRR) was .31 and his yards per route run was 1.88. Although the sample size is small, it’s clear that this was a very promising debut.

So, why receptions over receiving yards? Well, Tyson’s average depth of target (aDOT) was just 2.2 yards down the field. Of his 14 routes run, zero were deep down the field. It remains to be seen whether there will be a reluctance to send him deep down the field again this week. The first-round rookie’s emergence ate into a lot of what Devaughn Vele excels at; Vele finished with just two receptions on four targets. Barion Brown and Bryce Lance’s snaps saw a decrease from their Week 7 usage too.

Week 10 opponents Carolina are hurting massively in the secondary. Jaycee Horn, Mike Jackson and Akayleb Evans are all on IR, which saw practice squad cornerbacks elevated in Week 9 against Denver. One interesting fact about this week’s encounter: New Orleans and Carolina lead the league in seconds per play. These are two of the fastest offenses in the league, so we should see plenty of action. While I’m expecting Carolina to run the ball, the Saints offence should, as usual, be in pass-first mode.

It’s three wide receiver props this week, and three overs to match. In theory, these have been our most profitable bets of the season – we shall see if that carries on this week... It’s hard to believe we’re entering the second half of the season already; where does the time go? If we keep going like we have in the first half of the year, it’ll be a very profitable season. Here’s to Week 10, let’s go!

Note: odds correct at the time of posting