Does Offensive Line Investment Actually Work? A Look at Free Agency Spending and Draft Capital
Make us preferred on GoogleEvery offseason, there are teams that pour millions into upgrading their offensive lines. But how often does that investment actually move the needle? And what happens to lines that cut salary and ignore the offensive line during the early rounds of the draft? I looked at three seasons of data—2023 through 2025—to find out.
The Setup
I tracked every NFL team's net free agency spending on the offensive line each offseason and whether they used a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a lineman. I then measured year-over-year change in two blocking metrics: PFF's Pass Block Efficiency (PBE), which measures how often a line avoids pressures and sacks on a per-snap basis, and ESPN's Run Block Win Rate (RBWR), which tracks the percentage of run-blocking reps a lineman "wins" on a snap-by-snap basis.
After some analysis, I split the teams into two groups:
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Group A: net gained $8M or more in OL free agency spending AND used a Day 1, 2, or 3 draft pick on a lineman
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Group B: net lost $8M or more in OL salary AND did not use a Day 1–3 pick on a lineman
Group A represents a genuine double commitment to the position—money and draft capital in the same offseason. Group B is the opposite: teams shedding salary at the position without replenishing through the draft.
This gave us 12 team-seasons in Group A and 10 in Group B across 2023–2025.
Group A: The Investors
Teams that spent big in free agency and backed it up with a draft pick improved an average of +5.6 spots in PBE ranking and +3.7 spots in RBWR ranking from one season to the next. Seven of 12 improved in PBE; six of 12 improved in RBWR.
OL Investment & Blocking Impact: Prior Seasons Top net FA spenders each year. PBE = Pass Block Efficiency rank; RBWR = Run Block Win Rate rank. Lower rank = better. Click any column to sort. ← Scroll to see all columns →
| Team ↕ | Year ↕ | Net FA Spend ↕ | PBE Rank ↕ | PBE Chg ↕ | RBWR Rank ↕ | RBWR Chg ↕ |
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The best outcomes cluster around teams investing from a low base. The Jets jumped from 31st to 7th in PBE after signing veterans and drafting in 2024. The Bills vaulted from 21st to 5th. Washington made the leap twice—from 31st to 25th in 2023, then 25th to 8th in 2024. The Patriots went from dead last in both metrics to top-12 in both in a single offseason. The pattern is consistent: teams at or near the bottom of the league in pass or run blocking who commit real resources tend to see real improvement. Makes sense.
The notable misses—Jacksonville (−21 PBE), Green Bay (−15 PBE), Kansas City (−19 RBWR)—are worth flagging. They are a reminder that free agent acquisition and on-field cohesion are different things.
Group B: The Divestors
Teams that shed $8M or more in OL salary without replacing it through the draft declined an average of −0.9 spots in PBE ranking and −2.5 spots in RBWR ranking. Only four of 10 improved in PBE; just three of 10 improved in RBWR.
| Team ↕ | Year ↕ | Net FA Spend ↕ | PBE Rank (prev→curr) ↕ | PBE Chg ↕ | RBWR Rank (prev→curr) ↕ | RBWR Chg ↕ |
|---|
The Buccaneers are the best example of what cap attrition can do to a line: they fell from 2nd to 22nd in PBE and 6th to 25th in RBWR in a single season. The 49ers in 2023 dropped 18 spots in PBE after shedding nearly $17M and adding no linemen through the draft. The Falcons slid in both metrics after losing offensive line value in 2025.
The positive outliers deserve some explanation. Pittsburgh's massive PBE improvement in 2025 came along with Aaron Rodgers—a quarterback whose experience, quick release, and pre-snap processing improve pressure metrics no matter how the offensive line actually grades out. The Broncos' improvement in 2024 came from an already-elite line improving its level despite some losses. The Eagles held up on PBE despite losing salary, but their RBWR still slid five spots. The Colts held ranking in PBE, but their RBWR dropped four spots. The 49ers' 2025 improvement in RBWR came while their PBE continued to slip.
Bottom Line
Summary Table: 2023–2025 ← Scroll to see all columns →
| PBE Avg Change |
RBWR Avg Change |
PBE Improved |
RBWR Improved |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Group A (+$8M FA + draft pick, n=12) | +5.6 | +3.7 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 12 |
| Group B (−$8M FA, no draft pick, n=10) | −0.9 | −2.5 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 10 |
| Gap | +6.5 | +6.2 |
The gap between the groups is roughly six ranking spots in both pass and run blocking. More striking is the directional consistency: Group A improved more often than not in both metrics, while Group B declined more often than not in both.
A few caveats are worth keeping in mind. The sample is 22 team-seasons across three years, so individual outliers carry real weight. Quarterback changes are present in several cases in both directions—an experienced passer can make an average line look elite in pass protection metrics, and losing one can do the reverse. And year-over-year rank changes are partly a function of where a team starts; a team already sitting at 1st has nowhere to go but down.
The broader takeaway for 2026: teams entering the season having committed real resources to the offensive line—both dollars and draft capital—have a meaningful structural advantage in the blocking metrics that drive fantasy production. Those teams are the Browns, Raiders, Lions, Cardinals, and Patriots.
Teams that bled offensive line cap space and skipped the position in the draft–Bills, Colts, Packers, and Jets–are betting on internal development and their value signings/picks holding the line. History says that's a shaky bet.
