NFL Spread and O/U Picks: Hunter's Week 14 Best Bets
The fortuitous Thanksgiving Week slate of games has pushed my record on the year to a pace of having my best NFL sides/totals season of all time. When I first signed up to write for 4for4, I tweeted out that I wanted to surpass my personal best season in 2022 by doing better than that year’s 121-91-5 record for +50.80 Units. Perhaps I was just a year early in the projection of doing so?
Week 13 recap: 8-3 for +9.6 units. Weirdly enough, almost all of the games I had an edge on took place on Thanksgiving day and Black Friday, which made picking a side and total in each of those a lot easier than years past.
2025 Year to Date:
- Sides: 25-12 +17.40 Units
- Totals: 38-25 +22.06 Units
- Overall: 53-43 +39.46 Units
Other Note: Under bets are hitting at 68.97% for +21.64 units!
2025 NFL Week 14 Sides and Totals
NFL Week 14; Bet #1: Dallas Cowboys +3 -110 v Detroit Lions (graded at Circa, FD/Bet365 have the same, ESPNBet has -105, DK has -108, Caesars/BetMGM have -115)
Risk: 3.3 units to win 3 units
A 7-1 record here on 3U bets in 2025 that I will be laying on the line for the Cowboys to remain in the hunt for the playoffs. I think I am being a little rosy on how I am rating Jared Goff, especially in a game where it looks like Amon-Ra St. Brown will likely be unavailable, and I cannot get myself past the Lions -.06. If St Brown does go tomorrow night, I still can't make my numbers get to a full field goal.
There were discussions going on earlier this week that were along the lines of “The Cowboys are a playoff team if their defense can only be average”. Well, that time has come. Quinnen Williams and DeMarvion Overshown getting back on the field has made their nearly all-time bad run defense respectable. They went from 32nd with a bullet to 10th in EPA/Rush and 7th in rush defense success rate. That includes two games (out of 3) against my 6th and 7th-rated offensive lines. They still might suck a little against the pass, but they get QB pressure at the highest rate in the league.
And guess who is rolling into Week 14 with a beat-up pass-catching group… Your Detroit Lions. Without ASRB, they could roll into Thursday night with a bottom-three pass-catching group. It's deep threat and crosser specialist Jameson Williams and some dudes. They could turn to a heavy dose of the run game, sure, but I already hit on the Cowboys’ improvement in that area.
The Cowboys’ path to covering is just easier. Take the 4th-ranked EPA/Dropback with a healthy Pickens/Lamb combo and just match whatever tempo the Lions decide to play this game with. The Lions' defense is 20th in EPA/Dropback, but dropped to 32nd since Week 11 (when they started their secondary issues). They have also been 31st in EPA/Dropback since their bye week, which includes a game against JJ McCarthy.
NFL Week 14; Bet #2: Seattle Seahawks -6.5 -115 v Atlanta Falcons (graded at FanDuel, Pinnacle has -112, Caesars has -113, BetMGM has -118, DK/ESPNBet has -120)
Risk: 2.3 units to win 2 units
It’s no secret my numbers love the Seahawks and will continue to do so if they remain healthy. They get Julian Love and Jarran Reed back this week, in addition to already having the best defense since Week 6 by EPA/Play and defense by DVOA. The Falcons have shown that they are an offense that has been reliant on getting the run game going to make the rest of the offense go, whether it's with Cousins or Penix under center. That’s very likely not going to happen this week, with Seattle and Cleveland being head and shoulders above the rest of the NFL in rush defense DVOA, and they are 2nd overall in rushing defense success rate.
The Atlanta Falcons have only played one defense in the top half of the league in defensive DVOA since Week 2. Although that game went to overtime against the Colts, the box score was heavily lopsided in the Colts’ favor. The true score was 35-19, and Earned Drive Quality scored it 38-24. Kirk Cousins has looked pretty geriatric so far, or ~1.5 points worse than Penix was before injury, and will be throwing to a bottom 3 pass-catching group in Week 14 without Drake London on the field (who has already been ruled out, unlike my guess on Amon-Ra on Thursday Night).
