Jaylen Waddle’s Production Dip Might Be a Buying Opportunity

Jaylen Waddle is coming off his worst season as a professional, and yet he's being drafted as if it never happened. That might sound harsh, but it also might be justified. After a sharp dip in both usage and efficiency during a frustrating 2024 campaign, Waddle enters 2025 with a lower ADP but plenty of reasons for optimism. With Jonnu Smith gone, a potentially slower Tyreek Hill, and no true No. 3 wideout behind him, there’s a path back to high-end production. Of course, everything hinges on whether the Dolphins offense can stay upright, and whether Waddle gets the kind of volume we saw in his first three seasons.

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Jaylen Waddle’s Career

Maybe it’s just me, or perhaps it’s the scorching-hot NFL Draft capital associated with him, but it feels like Jaylen Waddle has been in the league for far longer than he has. And though he has logged four professional seasons so far, he’s also still very much in the prime range for WR production, as he enters his age 26/27 year in 2025.

Waddle quickly hopped onto the fantasy scene, demanding a high usage rate as a rookie by jumping over the likes of DeVante Parker, Mack Hollins, and Albert Wilson in the pecking order, and looking poised to handle an even bigger share as a sophomore. Due to a blockbuster trade that landed Tyreek Hill in South Beach, the increase in usage would have to wait a year, but not before he landed as the WR12, with defenses needing to rotate to his new teammate. Year 3 was more of the same fantastic efficiency, before a sharp decrease across the board in 2024, a performance that (deservedly) has fantasy managers laying off the trigger.

WR53, phew; things were even worse than I remembered. Though he was (seemingly) healthy throughout most of last season, his efficiency metrics fell in every facet; yards after catch/rec., yards per route run, and targets per route run were all at career lows, and due to Tua Tagovialoa’s increasing risk-aversion, he only received four targets in contested-catch situations. The 5’10”, 182-pound receiver isn’t exactly known for high-pointing the ball in traffic, but he had averaged 16.6 contested opportunities per year prior to this data point.

It seems like most of his in-traffic usage rotated over to Jonnu Smith, who would end up with a far higher target share (18.4%-to-15.4%) and TPRR (0.28-to-0.19), while his underneath usage was siphoned off by explosive back De’Von Achane. Getting squeezed on both sides is bad enough, but we sadly can’t blame the down year purely on scheme or Tagovailoa’s preferences.

Maybe it’s because of the increased reliance on a tight end and a running back in the passing game, but both Waddle and Hill took respective steps back in their game(s). We’ll touch on his teammate later, but Waddle was notably less effective over the middle of the field (namely, slants and digs) than in years past, and that happens to be where we get a ton of his catch-and-run action. Per Reception Perception’s Matt Harmon,

“This is the area where I thought Waddle didn’t win with as much burst and precision against zone, as his success rates on those two patterns dipped below 80% for the first time since his rookie season. The numbers were fine but a bit lower than expected. He does have to own some of the blame for last year’s dip.”

If the WR had notched a handful of touchdowns, maybe we wouldn’t be nitpicking his exact usage in this offense, but he didn’t, and we are. There are some underlying reasons for optimism for the Year 5 running back returning to form, though. Not only is Jonnu Smith up in Pittsburgh, but we may have just witnessed the first signs of a downturn in play from Tyreek Hill.

The Dolphins’ Offense in 2025

The entire projection of this offense, these fantasy pieces, and the franchise in general, rest on the shoulders of Tua Tagovailoa and how Mike McDaniel can use speed to put defenses in a blender. If either of those things falls through, we’re looking at a team with no rudder. How likely is it that McDaniel forgets how to bamboozle defenses? Not very. How likely is it that Tagovailoa misses time? Well, it’s certainly possible.

Tagovailoa has played a full season only once (2023), and while injuries occur frequently across all positions, he has missed 14 games over the last four seasons. Moreover, the head injuries are not only accumulating, but they have also been particularly severe. Let’s assume (and hope) that we’ve seen the last of those concussions; we still have some questions regarding the state of this offense.

The team made some planned and unplanned maneuvers to the offensive line this offseason, both to shore up their interior and react to the retirement of left tackle Terron Armstead. Armstead had missed plenty of time during his Miami Dolphins tenure, but when he was on the field, he still played at an impressive clip. If not for a bad Week 18 showing against the Jets when he gave up two sacks, he very well may have finished his fourth-straight year being credited with only one allowed. Even if his playing time was often cut short, that’s still an impressive feat.

On top of finishing 2024 dead last in adjusted line yards (3.69) and 26th in RB yards before contact (1.36), the Dolphins were also 31st in EPA per attempt (-0.44) and 32nd in stuff rate (45.9%) in late-down, short yardage situations (3rd & 4th downs, three or less yards to go). An improved interior should go a long way toward helping that, so let’s hope second-round guard Jonah Savaiinaea hits the ground running to take some pressure off the passing game.

Jonnu has been replaced by un-retired, PUP-list tight end Darren Waller, who hasn’t been a high-level player since 2020, which will help open the WR room back up to a commanding target share, but it leaves just one less tool in McDaniel’s play-calling pocket.

The moving pieces and the disappointing 2024 season have combined to push the Dolphins down to 17th in season-long implied scoring totals.

Projecting the Dolphins’ Pass-Catchers in Fantasy

A sharp downgrade in tight end play should un-muddy things up a little bit, but Tyreek Hill’s level of play last season throws dirt back in the water. While still an effective receiver, it’d be hard to call Hill an elite-level player after a frustrating age-31 season. Again referencing Reception Perception, they charted him with downturns in success rate vs. man coverage and vs. press, highlighting a potential step lost in isolation. The season-long efficiency metrics agree with that summation, as we saw career lows in yards per route run (1.75) and yards after the catch (3.5) en route to a WR31 fantasy season (10.5).

As the Dolphins return to a life without a valid No. 3 option outside of De’Von Achane (apologies to Waller, Malik Washington, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine), we should see the targets funnel back to Hill and Waddle. Still, it’s fair to consider that maybe each of them has lost a step. This makes Hill a WR2 as opposed to his many years as a locked-in high-end WR1, while Waddle should be considered a WR3, with the hopes that he gets a few more schemed-up touches than he experienced last season.

Bottom Line

• Jaylen Waddle saw his least-efficient season match up with a downturn in usage last year, sinking his fantasy usefulness, though Jonnu Smith has left town, which should open things back up.
• A full healthy season out of Tua Tagovailoa is imperative to finding ceiling within the Dolphins offense, and though they lost Terron Armstead to retirement, they made corresponding moves to shore up the front five.
• According to current Underdog ADP, Waddle is coming off boards as the WR29 in the fifth round, sandwiched between DeVonta Smith and Calvin Ridley. This indicates a significant level of public confidence that he will return to his pre-2024 form, and there are numerous signs pointing to this possibility, including a potential lost step from Tyreek Hill and the departure of TE Jonnu Smith.