Connor Allen's Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Football is finally back, and so are the props. Week 1 always brings a bit of uncertainty with new coaching staffs, personnel changes, and untested depth charts, but that also means opportunity. There is nothing better than betting into uncertain situations and reading them better than the market. I already released 3 bets to our subscriber discord with tons more to come.

Last season, I finished up over 40 units, hitting more than 66% of my unders along the way. The goal is to carry that momentum into 2025 with a sharp Week 1 card.

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Week 1 NFL Player Prop Bets

Cedric Tillman — Over 34.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FD, 31.5 B365, 30.5 MGM, widely available at 34.5)

First play of the year is an OVER. Tillman became a bigger part of the offense in Week 7 last season, logging over 80% of the snaps in four games prior to injury. In those contests, he posted lines of 8/81, 7/99, 6/75, and 3/47 — all with David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy active.

The Browns have reportedly been buzzing about Tillman’s upside, and he should carve out a consistent role in this offense. Now he gets an upgrade at quarterback with Joe Flacco, and faces a Bengals defense that finished 30th in success rate and 27th in EPA/play in 2023. Cincinnati made a few personnel changes, but their starters were torched by Washington’s backups in preseason Week 2.

Risk 1.14u to win 1u

Alt: 0.2u on 60+ yards (+290 FD)

Alt: 0.1u on 70+ yards (+430 FD)

Will Dissly — Under 24.5 Receiving Yards (FD Builder, fine down to 20.5 WA)

This one comes down to usage. In preseason Week 2, when both Dissly and Conklin were active, Conklin played 4 of 5 snaps in 11 personnel, while Dissly only played one — a run-heavy down. PFF’s Nathan Jahnke noted that Conklin handled the passing situations, which aligns with how the Chargers deployed their TEs early last season (Hurst as the pass catcher, Dissly in a rotation).

With Greg Roman calling plays, I expect a similar split here, leaving Dissly’s targets thin and his yardage ceiling capped. Receptions under 2.5 are also solid if available.

Risk 1.14u to win 1u

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James Conner — Over 15.5 Carries (-101 DK, -102 Builder, MGM, 365, Rivers, Bovada, CZRS)

Despite offseason talk about rookie RB Trey Benson, all the evidence points to James Conner retaining workhorse duties in Arizona. HC Jonathan Gannon has repeatedly referred to Conner as the lead back (H/T Coachspeak Index), and history backs it up: In games Conner didn’t leave early due to injury last year, he had 16+ carries in 10 of 13 contests.

The matchup sets up perfectly. Arizona enters as near touchdown favorites against the Saints, projected by many as the NFL’s worst team. Even if Benson mixes in, Conner could clear this line in three quarters of play with positive game script.

Risk 1.01u to win 1u