Week 4 Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS: Top FanDuel & DraftKings Plays
Welcome to the showdown breakdown for Week 4 Sunday Night Football, where the 2-1 Kansas City Chiefs will take their high-octane offense on the road to face a struggling 1-2 New York Jets squad. The Chiefs are coming off a demolition of the Chicago Bears, while the Jets look like they’re yearning for the draft season already. With Patrick Mahomes in prime form and Zach Wilson struggling to find his footing, this game offers a buffet of DFS opportunities and challenges. Let’s dive in.
This chart represents the general offensive strategies for each team when the game outcome is still in question (win probability between 20% and 80%). The final two minutes of each half are also excluded. We’ll include last year’s statistics through Week 4 of the regular season. Teams in the upper-right quadrant pass more often and play faster than the average NFL team in neutral game scripts, and conversely, teams in the lower-left quadrant play slower and run more often than the average NFL team.
Chiefs (-10, 25.75) @ Jets (+10, 15.75 ); Over/Under 41.5
The Chiefs, with an implied point total of 25.75, are ten-point favorites over the Jets, who have a meager implied total of 15.75. That sets the total for this game at a mere 41.5. And the fact that the spread isn't larger is a testament to the quality of the Jets' defense, and their ability to keep games close. Last week, Mahomes showcased the Chiefs' offensive firepower in a 41-10 beatdown of the Bears, and that type of score isn't out of the question again this week (or any week, for that matter). They find themselves in the upper-right quadrant of offensive scheme charts, indicating a return to their typical aggressive, pass-first, highly potent offense that could turn this game into a one-sided affair.
The Jets, on the other hand, are dealing with the struggles of quarterback Zach Wilson, an injured offensive line, and an uninspiring offensive scheme. Despite a slight tendency to pass compared to league average, their inability to sustain drives severely limits this team. The betting market seems to concur, with their paltry implied total expecting very little from the Wilson-led Jets.
While there may be 22 people on the field for every play, each play and game is heavily dictated by the performance of each team’s quarterback. While efficiency isn’t everything for quarterbacks, it is the best indicator of future performance, so we use a trio of metrics to suss out top performers at the position compared to lackluster ones. xDrive Success %, or True Drive Success Rate, is a measurement of a QB’s ability to turn drives into scores weighted by sample size. EPA or Expected Points Added, is a measurement of the QB’s contribution, both running and throwing, to the team’s scoring and production vs. the average NFL team. Completion % over Expected (CPOE)represents the accuracy and efficiency of a QB’s passes compared to league expectations.
Patrick Mahomes is back to doing Patrick Mahomes things. After a somewhat sluggish start to the season, Mahomes found his groove in Week 3, thrusting himself back into the top eight in both per-drive and per-game efficiency metrics. His EPA per game also rose substantially, and PFF ranks him third in pass grade and second in overall grade among quarterbacks. His xDrive Success Rate and CPOE indicate a quarterback who is not just producing but doing so efficiently and effectively.
For the Jets, Zach Wilson is a project waiting to be scrapped. Wilson has the third-worst passing grade, according to PFF, behind only Desmond Ridder and Bryce Young. His decision-making has been questionable at best, holding onto the ball for an average of 3.15 seconds, the third slowest in the league. And his xDrive Success Rate and EPA per game both rank in the bottom three among starting quarterbacks. Compounding the issue, he's one of only six quarterbacks to be pressured more than 50 times this season, which partly explains his struggles but also amplifies his poor decisions. Even with the troubles on the offensive line, quarterback Trevor Simian, who joined the team less than 100 hours ago, would give the Jets a better chance to win this Sunday.
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