Week 17 NFL Player Props: Best Player Props to Bet from Connor Allen
After spending all of November and the first week of December in the absolute gutter, we are back on track. Three consecutive positive weeks puts us up nearly 8 units on the season. It doesn’t sound like much, but considering the losing streak we had in November, I consider it a good trend in the right direction before the playoffs. Last week was solid, but was so close to being an insane week.
We nailed Amari Cooper's overs and ladders in the first half. I’m not going to say I fully predicted his monstrous day of 256 yards, but the signs were there. This was the full write-up I released to subscribers “Cooper has 109 and 77 receiving yards in two full games with Flacco. He had 3/34 before getting injured against the Rams on just 30% of the total snaps. He has been targeted on over 25% of his routes run so far. Flacco may be volatile, but the Browns are 2nd in pass rate over expectation and 3rd in overall pass rate despite playing in largely competitive games. They now draw the pass-funnel Houston Texans, who play strong run defense but have struggled in pass defense. Since their Week 7 bye, Houston has allowed a 67% completion rate and over 8 yards per attempt, along with over 9 yards per attempt to outside wideouts. Cooper runs nearly 85% of his routes on the outside.”
Despite hitting that, we lost Terry Mclaurin’s under on his final reception of 25+ yards after Sam Howell was benched. We also lost Jerry Jeudy’s under of 40.5 receiving yards somehow. He didn’t have a single catch until 6 minutes left in the game. With Courtland Sutton suffering a mid-game concussion, Russell Wilson furiously targeted Jeudy, and he crawled over 43 yards. If Sutton doesn’t get hurt, Jeudy likely doesn’t even sniff 40 yards. Regardless, profit is profit. Let’s move on to Week 18.
Week 17 NFL Player Prop Bets
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Jared Goff under 253.5 passing yards (-115 Bet365)
Playable at DK, MGM, CZRS, 252.5 FD
There are multiple avenues to this hitting, but the biggest one to me is the Lions' advantage on the ground. I think they will have an immense amount of success here offensively running the ball against the Cowboys, who are dead last in rushing success rate by a full 2%. We just saw a Buffalo team that focused on the run absolutely hammer Dallas two weeks ago, and the Lions are frankly even better equipped to do so.
When they do throw, I have concerns about Goff's efficiency as he has struggled under pressure, averaging just 6 yards per attempt, and hasn't been nearly as efficient against man defense compared to zone. Dallas' defense is among the league leaders in both man coverage and pressure rate. The Cowboys have allowed just 3 QBs to eclipse this number all season, and it took 41, 44, and 37 pass attempts. With low volume and middling efficiency expected, I like this down to 245.
Risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit
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