Week 7 Fantasy Football Start/Sit Candidates: Quarterbacks
Wondering whom to start and sit at quarterback this week? Below are two top-notch start and two sit options at the quarterback position for Week 7 of the 2022 NFL season.
Week 6 Review – half-PPR scoring
- QB Daniel Jones (New York Giants) vs. Baltimore Ravens – 13.52 (QB17)
- QB Geno Smith (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Arizona Cardinals – 12.68 fantasy points(QB19)
- QB Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos) @ Los Angeles Chargers – 13.82 (QB15)
- QB Marcus Mariota (Atlanta Falcons) vs. San Francisco – 24.16 (QB5)
Quarterback – Starts
Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Atlanta Falcons
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow produced a pair of back-end QB finishes in Weeks 4 (QB10) and 5 (QB11), before erupting as the overall QB1 via 32.5 fantasy points in Week 6. Fantasy managers can expect another mighty showing in Week 7 as Burrow tees off on the Atlanta Falcons. Per 4for4 betting partner BetMGM, Cincinnati versus Atlanta earned the league’s fourth-highest over/under, 47.5 points. Cincinnati boasts a -6.0-point home favorite spread.
With six games in the books, Atlanta’s pass defense is the league’s third-most quarterback-friendly unit, surrendering 21.1 fantasy points per game to the position, per 4for4’s Schedule Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed tool. Their prospects look even worse after having placed starting perimeter cornerback Casey Hayward (shoulder) on Injured Reserve on Tuesday.
Atlanta continues to go linebacker-heavy on defense, placing an average of 6.84 defenders in the box, the second-highest frequency in the NFL. Bafflingly, defensive coordinator Dean Pees is rushing just four defenders 74.2% of the time though, 12th most in the NFL, which means Atlanta is frequently asking its linebackers to drop into coverage. Unsurprisingly, Atlanta is surrendering 275.2 passing yards per game, the third-most in the NFL.
While wide receiver Tee Higgins has been working his way through an ankle injury over the last two weeks and Ja’Marr Chase has corrected his slow start, compiling half-PPR’s second-best wide receiver point total (37.2) during that span. Cincinnati’s passing game should have a field day here.
Aaron Rodgers (Green Bay Packers) @ Washington Commanders
The Green Bay Packers offense has struggled to find its groove as of late but a date with the Washington Commanders’ volatile pass rush and injured secondary should get things back on track.
Washington is allowing 20.2 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, tied for fourth most in the NFL. While their pass rush has found success at times, their peak performances have come against the Chicago Bears and Tennessee Titans, both bottom-three teams in quarterback pressure rate allowed. Green Bay's offensive line has improved since missing left tackle David Bakhtiari and right tackle Elgton Jenkins for three combined games to start the season.
Washington’s 0.03 interceptions per drive rate ranks 27th, posing little threat to Rodgers’ desired downfield shots.
Tom Brady (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) @ Carolina Panthers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' passing game fell far short of expectations against an injury-plagued Pittsburgh Steelers secondary last week but Week 7 should end differently. Tampa Bay’s -11.0-point spread over the Carolina Panthers is the largest on the Week 7 slate, yet the 40.5-point over/under is one of the week’s lowest. Typically this might be cause for concern but per RotoViz’s NFL Pace app, Tampa Bay has maintained a 59.0% passing rate when leading by one touchdown or more, and their 4.9% passing rate over expectation, per 4for4’s NFL Team Stats Explorer, ranks fourth-highest in the NFL.
The Carolina Panthers' defense has produced pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 17.6% of the time, the ninth worst in the NFL. Their secondary, despite an array of reputable names, owns just a 0.06 interception per drive rate, T-12th worst. The unit also recently suffered a pair of injuries at cornerback, with Jaycee Horn hurting his ribs and Donte Jackson spraining an ankle, so an improvement in play cannot be expected.
Given Brady’s Week 6 dud, his DFS rostership rate is likely to be unusually depressed this week, making him a fine contrarian play.
*Check out the full QB Rankings here.
Quarterback – Sits
Derek Carr (Las Vegas Raiders) vs. Houston Texans
Through no fault of his own, Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Derek Carr is a sit this week. Las Vegas versus the Houston Texans opened with a 45.5-point over/under and Carr’s squad is a -7.0-point home favorite. Only two games feature larger spreads than Las Vegas and Houston’s -7.0.
Houston’s defense has done a good job of capitalizing against declining/young quarterbacks in four-of-five games this year; Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, Justin Fields, and Trevor Lawrence, recording at least one interception against all of them. Their 19.3% quarterback pressure rate, just T-21st-best in the league, is hardly anything to write home about though.
The main problem for Carr is the 27.9 half-PPR points per game that Houston is allowing to opposing running backs, the second-highest average in the NFL. Opponents have largely been able to control the clock against Houston (1-3-1 record) this year, and Las Vegas running back Josh Jacobs has only just found his stride. In the two weeks prior to Las Vegas’ Week 6 bye, Jacobs had tallied 59.8 half-PPR points, second most at the position. Expect head coach Josh McDaniels to continue calling Jacobs’ number in what should be a safe win for them.