Week 16 DraftKings & FanDuel Winning GPP Lineup Review

Dec 27, 2022

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In this space each week, I will review the winning lineups from the DraftKings Millionaire Maker and the FanDuel Sunday Million. Analyzing top lineups can help to tease out lineup-building strategies and offer clues on how you could have landed on a similar team.

DraftKings Week 16 Millionaire Winning Lineup

Ownership

Ownership in Winning DraftKings Millionaire Lineups, 2022
Week	QB	RB1	RB2	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	Flex	Flex Pos	DEF	Cumulative
1	9.1%	14.2%	9.3%	27.1%	12.5%	11.2%	17.2%	7.9%	WR	3.0%	111.5%
2	3.6%	10.4%	8.4%	21.3%	19.7%	14.4%	9.2%	6.3%	WR	1.8%	95.1%
3	2.3%	16.0%	13.9%	16.9%	8.8%	5.6%	2.6%	1.4%	WR	15.7%	83.2%
4	6.8%	38.0%	15.2%	15.4%	11.4%	5.7%	19.8%	6.1%	RB	3.3%	121.7%
5	12.1%	14.1%	13.9%	27.0%	13.4%	7.5%	7.8%	9.6%	RB	22.7%	128.1%
6	4.4%	12.7%	8.5%	14.7%	4.9%	3.2%	2.6%	2.4%	WR	0.6%	54.0%
7	17.0%	46.7%	32.1%	15.4%	2.6%	2.1%	8.1%	21.4%	RB	43.8%	189.2%
8	21.1%	50.9%	12.5%	27.6%	28.8%	26.4%	1.6%	7.4%	WR	0.9%	177.2%
9	14.2%	40.5%	13.6%	14.9%	10.0%	8.5%	1.4%	12.2%	RB	10.2%	125.5%
10	29.4%	25.8%	10.6%	20.4%	16.9%	10.3%	16.0%	2.4%	WR	16.0%	147.8%
11	0.6%	13.4%	11.3%	14.1%	4.6%	3.7%	5.4%	5.6%	RB	6.6%	65.3%
12	7.0%	10.4%	3.5%	14.8%	13.1%	8.8%	17.4%	4.5%	WR	24.2%	103.7%
13	1.9%	14.9%	7.7%	33.9%	27.7%	10.1%	1.5%	5.1%	WR	4.0%	106.8%
14	2.5%	21.3%	7.4%	27.1%	11.3%	6.0%	3.6%	2.0%	RB	6.6%	87.8%
15	9.7%	11.0%	0.3%	18.6%	8.6%	8.6%	15.8%	3.1%	WR	4.3%	80.0%
16	11.8%	9.6%	1.2%	24.1%	18.6%	9.6%	13.8%	9.3%	WR	4.9%	102.9%
AVG	9.6%	21.9%	10.6%	20.8%	13.3%	8.9%	9.0%	6.7%		10.5%	111.2%

The cumulative ownership of the last six winning Millionaire lineups has been below the historical average of 107.7% (2019–2021).

For the season, winning Millionaire lineups have averaged four sub-10% players, two sub-5% players, and two players over 20%.

Stacks

Stacks Used in Winning DraftKings Millionaire Lineups, 2022
Week	Primary Stack	Secondary Stack	Third Stack	Correlated Players
1	QB/TE	RB/Opp WR	WR/Opp WR	6
2	QB/WR/WR/Opp TE			4
3	QB/TE	RB/Opp WR		4
4	QB/WR/WR/Opp RB/Opp WR/Opp TE			6
5	QB/WR	RB/WR/TE	WR/Opp WR	7
6	QB/WR/Opp RB			3
7	QB/WR/TE	RB/Opp RB		5
8	QB/WR/WR	RB/DEF	WR/TE	7
9	QB/WR/TE/Opp WR	RB/DEF		6
10	QB/Opp WR	RB/Opp WR	TE/Opp WR	6
11	QB/WR/Opp RB			3
12	QB/RB	WR/Opp TE	WR/DEF	6
13	QB/WR	RB/TE	RB/WR	6
14	QB/WR/TE/Opp RB	WR/Opp RB		6
15	QB/RB/WR/TE	RB/Opp WR		6
16	QB/RB/WR/WR/Opp WR/Opp TE			6

For the second time in as many weeks, and for only the second time all season, the winning lineup stacked four players from the same team.

This was only the second winning lineup over the last three years to stack six players from the same game.

Winning Millionaire lineups in 2022 have averaged 5.4 correlated players while winning FanDuel Sunday Million lineups have averaged 4.6 correlated players.

Flex

The field flexed running back in 38% of lineups, wide receiver in 41%, and tight end in 21%. Top-1% lineups only used three running backs in 19% of lineups, four wide receivers in 54%, and three tight end builds in 27%. It was only the second time this year that top-1% Millionaire lineups flexed tight end at a higher rate than the field.

Leverage

As seen back in Week 4, a heavy onslaught is a way to make a unique lineup from the most popular game on the slate, even if all the players in the stack are all around 10% or higher.

In a week where high-salary running backs carried heavy ownership, finding a punt play at the position helped with a unique roster construction. Chuba Hubbard was the less popular play in a running back timeshare that most DFS players avoided altogether but one that offered leverage off of D.J. Moore, the fourth-highest rostered player on the slate.

FanDuel Week 16 Saturday Million Winning Lineup

Ownership

Ownership in Winning FanDuel Sunday Million Lineups, 2022
Week	QB	RB1	RB2	WR1	WR2	WR3	TE	Flex	Flex Pos	DEF	Cumulative
1	9.9%	17.7%	9.1%	17.4%	12.6%	6.2%	14.5%	1.2%	RB	2.8%	91.4%
2	3.0%	7.9%	2.8%	9.9%	6.4%	5.9%	8.7%	0.5%	WR	4.6%	49.7%
3	4.4%	15.0%	5.0%	15.6%	5.6%	4.2%	4.1%	1.9%	RB	6.6%	62.4%
4	2.2%	31.2%	12.8%	11.7%	7.6%	7.6%	20.1%	3.9%	RB	4.8%	101.9%
5	17.8%	17.4%	13.0%	22.7%	14.7%	0.9%	3.8%	6.3%	RB	4.6%	101.2%
6	4.2%	29.8%	2.9%	13.7%	4.3%	4.0%	0.4%	0.7%	WR	8.0%	68.0%
7	16.2%	25.1%	22.6%	17.5%	5.4%	4.0%	11.3%	16.0%	RB	2.9%	121.0%
8	22.7%	61.6%	14.9%	25.7%	23.0%	10.3%	7.7%	14.3%	RB	17.0%	197.2%
9	7.2%	31.1%	8.8%	16.0%	12.1%	4.3%	1.1%	6.4%	RB	11.6%	98.6%
10	21.6%	26.0%	10.5%	24.4%	17.1%	6.3%	13.7%	5.2%	RB	12.4%	137.2%
11	24.2%	15.9%	4.6%	19.6%	4.7%	3.7%	7.8%	1.6%	RB	10.9%	93.0%
12	11.7%	15.9%	12.2%	12.9%	8.9%	4.3%	14.6%	2.2%	RB	12.8%	95.5%
13	8.8%	15.5%	3.5%	24.4%	15.6%	15.1%	8.5%	0.1%	WR	4.6%	96.1%
14	18.3%	11.9%	1.2%	22.5%	17.1%	13.2%	3.9%	11.2%	WR	4.7%	104.0%
15	20.4%	15.5%	12.2%	15.2%	14.8%	14.7%	6.6%	8.7%	RB	5.4%	113.5%
16	16.3%	11.3%	9.6%	7.8%	6.5%	5.0%	18.7%	6.9%	RB	5.7%	87.8%
AVG	13.1%	21.8%	9.1%	17.3%	11.0%	6.9%	9.1%	5.4%		7.5%	101.2%

Despite no sub-5% players in this week’s winning Saturday Million lineups, the 87.8% cumulative ownership was the lowest for a winner since Week 6. It was only the second winning lineup since Week 4 with no players over 20%.

The average cumulative ownership of winning lineups in 2022 is down 16 percentage points versus the average from 2109–2021.

Stacks

Stacks Used in Winning FanDuel Sunday Million Lineups, 2022
Week	Primary Stack	Secondary Stack	Third Stack	Correlated Players
1	QB/TE			2
2	QB/WR/WR/Opp TE	RB/Opp WR		6
3	QB/TE	RB/WR/DEF	RB/WR	7
4	QB/RB/WR/TE/Opp WR	RB/WR		7
5	QB/WR/WR	RB/TE		5
6	QB/WR	WR/TE		4
7	QB/WR/WR			3
8		RB/WR	WR/Opp WR/Opp TE	5
9	QB/WR/TE	RB/WR		5
10	QB/TE	RB/WR		4
11		RB/WR/Opp RB	WR/Opp TE	5
12	QB/RB/TE	WR/WR		5
13	QB/WR	RB/DEF	WR/TE	6
14	QB/WR/Opp WR			3
15	QB/WR/Opp RB			3
16	QB/WR/WR/Opp WR			4

For the third time in as many weeks and the fifth time all season, the winning lineup didn’t use a secondary stack or mini-correlation. Over the previous two seasons combined, there were only six such winners.

Leverage

While Gardner Minshew was the most popular quarterback on the slate, ownership on the pass-catchers on both sides of that game was low. Double-stacking Minshew with a bring-back eloped offset is high ownership.

Derrick Henry was one of the most popular players on the slate. Playing the defense going against Henry provided direct leverage off of a chalk skill player.