Week 13 NFL Pick'em & Survivor Pool Picks: Seahawks Rebound in NFC West Tilt
The Week 13 slate features four games with spreads of a touchdown or more, followed by a slew of closer ones. Hopefully, with the help of PoolGenius' customizable tools and data, we can select matchups with some value so that you can get to the top of those leaderboards in pick 'em contests and survive another week in knockout pools.
Editor’s Note: PoolGenius subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 12 Recap
Thanks to an overtime loss by the Seahawks and the Colts being the Colts, my picks went 4-2 last week. My bonus selection of the Cowboys came through, along with wins by the Dolphins, 49ers, and Chargers, to bring my season-long total to 39-22.
Let’s move on to Week 13, where hopefully, we find success in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note that I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 13 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 13 picks from your pool opponents by taking on only a modest amount of risk or no additional risk at all.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Broncos
I hate to pile on the Broncos when they are down but I really have no choice here. Baltimore hasn’t been playing very well either, but this is a get-right week against a Denver team that has only scored more than 16 points twice this season. The Broncos are imploding, and a road game in Baltimore is not an ideal fix.
Dallas Cowboys vs. Colts
Dallas is an 11-point favorite in Jerry World, and they should have no trouble getting the job done on the ground with both Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard against a middling Indy run defense. Jeff Saturday will do his best to play spoiler with Jonathan Taylor, but the Cowboys' pass rush will be too much for Matt Ryan.
This contest features 83% win odds via both Vegas and PoolGenius, with 98% of the public on board. You know the deal.
Sensibly Priced Favorite
Seattle Seahawks @ Rams
The Seahawks fell short last week but should bounce back in Week 13 against a decimated LA Rams team. Geno Smith and Ken Walker get back on track, but it may be closer than the 7.5-point spread indicates.
Poolgenius win odds are currently at 79% for Seattle, with 81% of the public backing them. While that is a relatively high number, the pick percentage is lower than teams with similar spreads, like the Browns (92%) and the Ravens (98%).
Washington Commanders @ Giants
I did not think I’d see Washington favored on the road this season, nor did I see myself backing them, but I suppose stranger things have happened in the 2022 season. This matchup sets up well for the Commanders as their ground game has been solid with Antonio Gibson and Brian Robinson, while the Giants yield the 10th most rushing yards per game (139). Washington has been stout against the run and will keep Saquon Barkley in check.
This game has Washington as two-point favorites with 56% Vegas odds of a road victory. A mere 41% of public bettors are taking the Commanders, which gives us a ton of value in making the pick.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Falcons
Since their Week 9 bye, Pittsburgh has won two out of three games, while the Falcons have come up short in three of their last four, averaging just 18 points per contest in those losses. The Steelers have more weapons on both sides of the ball and are just playing better football at this point in the season.
Pittsburgh is a one-point road dog in this one, with 51% Vegas odds to leave town with a victory. Only 37% of the public is rolling with them, so there is certainly value in the pick.
Survivor Picks for Week 13
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 13 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to winning odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the PoolGenius Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Colts (82%, 11-point favorites)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Broncos (77%, 8.5-point favorites)
- Seattle Seahawks @ Rams (76%, 7.5-point favorites)
- Cleveland Browns @ Texans (75%, 7-point favorites)
- Philadelphia Eagles vs. Titans (69%, 5-point favorites)
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 13 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Cleveland Browns @ Texans (41%)
- Dallas Cowboys vs. Colts (19%)
- Seattle Seahawks @ Rams (17%)
- Baltimore Ravens vs. Broncos (5%)
- Minnesota Vikings vs. Jets (5%)
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 13, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to PoolGenius, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Kansas City Chiefs (5.9)
- Buffalo Bills (5.1)
- San Francisco 49ers (4.4)
- Dallas Cowboys (4.2)
- Philadelphia Eagles (4.2)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the PoolGenius Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.