Week 11 NFL Pick'em and Survivor Pool Picks
There are five games with a touchdown spread or more, followed by some nice value picks for Week 11. Only two teams are off this week so there are plenty of teams to choose from.
With the help of TeamRankings' customizable tools and data, I’ll go over the best value picks for Week 11, along with the top suggestions for survivor pools. With this info, you should be able to make smart decisions in order to get back on track or keep you going if you’ve had a strong start to the season thus far.
Editor’s Note: TeamRankings subscribers win football pools three times as often as expected, thanks to customized picks designed for your pool's size and rules. No one else does it.
Week 10 Recap
I’m back on track with a 4-1 week. If the Rams had come through on Monday night, I would have had a perfect Week 10. This brings my season total to 33-17.
Onto Week 11, where hopefully we continue to succeed in both pick'em and survivor formats.
Pick'em Pool Breakdown
Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. The best Week 11 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks remaining.
However, these picks do provide some of the best opportunities to differentiate your Week 11 picks from your pool opponents, by taking on only a modest amount of risk, or no additional risk at all.
Tennessee Titans vs. Texans
This game features a 10.5-point spread with 81% win odds via TeamRankings. The Titans keep finding ways to win ball games and the Texans are on the opposite side of things. This could be the making of a trap game, but Tennessee should still come out with a win.
The public is also taking the Titans 99% of the time so you’ll win or lose with your pool.
Buffalo Bills vs. Colts
The Bills are home favorites by a touchdown, with 74% win odds. Indy is playing well, but they’ll be facing the toughest defense in the NFL. The spread may be a tad high, but Buffalo should come out with the win.
Pickers are taking the Bills 93% of the time so the majority of your pool will be together in this one.
New England Patriots @ Falcons
The Pats have won and covered the spread in four straight contests, while Atlanta has been up and down all season. TeamRankings gives New England 75% win odds in a contest with a 7-point spread.
Public bettors are picking the Pats 89% of the time, which is at a lower rate than Buffalo (93%) or the 49ers (91%), both of which feature similar spreads.
Baltimore Ravens @ Bears
The Ravens are coming off an embarrassing loss to Miami, and Chicago is returning from a week of rest. The Bears have not won after their bye week since 2013, and the Ravens are 6-3 after a loss with Lamar Jackson at QB.
Both TeamRankings and Vegas are giving 71% win odds in this one with 91% of the public on board with the Ravens.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Raiders
This game is basically a pick’em with the Bengals favored by one point. Vegas has Cincy’s win odds at 53% with TeamRankings coming in at 51%. After a week of rest, the better team on paper should prevail here, which to me is the Bengals.
Only 50% of the public is rolling with Cincy in this contest so you can separate yourself with this pick.
Survivor Picks for Week 11
Win Odds: Top 5 Week 11 Picks
Stating the obvious here, but higher is better when it comes to win odds. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through.
Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses):
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Giants (82%, 11.5-point favorites)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Lions (81%, 10-point favorites)
- Tennessee Titans vs. Texans (80%, 10.5-point favorites)
- Buffalo Bills vs. Colts (74%, 7-point favorites)
- New England Patriots @ Falcons (73%, 7-point favorites)
Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses.
Here are the five most popular survivor picks for Week 11 (referencing Data Grid mentioned earlier):
- Tennessee Titans vs. Texans (49%)
- Cleveland Browns vs. Lions (21%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Giants (9%)
- San Francisco 49ers @ Jaguars (6%)
- New England Patriots @ Falcons (4%)
The last piece of the survivor pool puzzle is future value. If you fire off a powerful team in Week 11, you won’t be able to use them later.
According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool:
- Buffalo Bills (4.9)
- Tampa Buccaneers (4.5)
- Arizona Cardinals (3.6)
- Dallas Cowboys (2.9)
- Kansas City Chiefs (2.7)
Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size.
TeamRankings has released a book on Survivor Pool Strategy, check out the e-version by clicking here.