Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Player Props
Week 13 Recap: Week 13 may as well have been Friday the 13th. We were headed towards nearly 10-units of profit but Jason was waiting for us on Monday Night with a hockey mask and a machete in hand. We wound up with three units on Kendrick Bourne under 30.5 receiving yards. Bourne was my favorite play of the week and our projections agreed. With Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk back, Bourne played the second-lowest snap rate of the season (49%). The 49ers fell behind early, though, thrusting them into negative game script. As a result, Nick Mullens had a season-high in completions (26) and attempts (39). Despite that, through 58.5 minutes, Bourne had just two receptions for 15 yards. Mullens proceeded to then complete an 11-yard pass and a 9-yard pass to Bourne on two of his final four passes. It might be a bit dramatic but a six-unit swing with a minute left on Monday Night Football felt like Jason’s machete finishing us off. Despite the gruesome—but accurate—metaphor, we finished the week in the black with another 1.14 units in the bank.
I’ll say it pretty much every week, but if you aren’t already in the Discord chat, you are missing out on a lot of closing line value as well as all my Island Game plays. Every Thursday and Friday, I post any opening lines that jump out to me I think our subscribers should bet as soon as possible because they will likely move. We have had a lot of issues with props getting steamed quickly I put out on Friday and Saturday, so we made it possible for our subscribers to receive push notifications whenever I post a play. To access this feature on Discord, go to “Role Assign” and hit the money bag sign under the “Weekly Prop Plays” post! On to Week 14…
Week 14 DraftKings Player Prop Bets
Duke Johnson Under 3.5 Receptions (-118)
I’ve lost track of the times we have won betting on either Duke Johnson or David Johnson’s reception total but here we are again. Duke Johnson has started three games in place of David Johnson this season, catching 0, 3, and 3 receptions in those games. I know we are playing it close to the chest but C.J. Prosise figures to be active for this game as well. In Duke Johnson’s last game as the starting running back, he touched the ball 12 times to Prosise's six touches. We have Duke Johnson projected for 2.6 receptions in this one.
Risk: 1.18 units to win 1 unit
Jalen Hurts Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-125)
I know this goes against our projections but there are a couple of reasons to like this prop. The matchup is insanely difficult. The Saints are currently ranked second in overall defensive DVOA, second in pass defense DVOA, first in adjusted sack rate and fifth in pressure rate. I’m also not a big fan of Jalen Hurts as a prospect in terms of his passing ability. In three years at Alabama, he was mostly known for running the ball and didn’t average more than 200 passing yards per game in a single season. Nick Saban would desperately try and hide Hurts’s flaws as a thrower and keep him in a game-manager role. He was then “unlocked” by CFB offensive guru Lincoln Riley, throwing for 3,851 passing yards and averaging 11.3 yards per attempt as a senior at Oklahoma. It’s worth noting this is the same offense that had insane amounts of success with both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray directly before Hurts's stint. The Hurts-led Oklahoma offense averaged the fewest points per game since 2014.
Enough about his college prowess, back to this bet. He’s making his first start in a difficult situation against a defense that has been able to hold far superior passers in Tom Brady (209 passing yards) and Matthew Stafford (206 passing yards) under this number. With Taysom Hill starting on the opposite side, expect a run-heavy, clock-draining game from both sides.
Risk: 1.25 units to win 1 unit
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